With a lot of blowouts on tap for Week 3 in the NFL, we like our player props this week in games that should be close into the 4th quarter, including Chargers-Vikings, Saints-Packers, and Steelers-Raiders.
With the aid of the player props section on OddsTrader, we have found our favorite props for Week 3, which you can find at the top sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Kirk Cousins (MIN) Over 288.5 Passing Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Rashid Shaheed (NO) Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)
- Justin Fields (CHI) Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetRivers
- Miles Sanders (CAR) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+145) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Kenny Pickett (PIT) Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+133) at Caesars Sportsbook
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at US Bank Stadium
Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings)
The shootout in Week 3 should be in Minnesota between the Chargers and Vikings. What can happen when the team who blew a 27-point lead in the playoffs faces the team that came back from a 33-0 hole last December? These teams are always snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, so this game should have plenty of scoring, yardage, and entertainment value.
But Kirk Cousins is the quarterback to back here as he has been quite effective, ranked No. 6 in QBR (70.8) while Justin Herbert is only No. 13 (57.2) as the Chargers experiment more with the run under Kellen Moore. It also is a toss-up if running back Austin Ekeler will play or not.
But with the Vikings, you get a team that cannot run the ball, and trading for Cam Akers from the Rams will not do much to help that, especially in Week 3. This is Cousins’ offense this year, and he has the No. 1 receiver in the whole league in Justin Jefferson, who is seeking a 3rd-straight game with 150 receiving yards, which has never been done to start a season.
The Pick
Cousins has passed for 344 and 364 yards in the games this season, and the Chargers are a worse defense than Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. He may not throw for over 450 yards like Tua Tagovailoa did in Week 1, but a solid 300-yard game should be in order to hit this over and give the Vikings a real chance at avoiding 0-3.
NFL Pick: Kirk Cousins Over 288.5 Passing Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lambeau Field
Rashid Shaheed (New Orleans Saints)
Everyone knew about Chris Olave after his breakout rookie season, and Michael Thomas coming back healthy has been good for the Saints. But do not sleep on Rashid Shaheed, the best deep threat in this offense and one of the most efficient receivers on a per-target basis since 2022.
Shaheed has caught 84.1% of his 44 career targets for 640 yards, which is a whopping 14.5 yards per target. He has caught a bomb from Derek Carr in both games this season, and Carr’s average pass is 10.4 yards this season, the highest in the league.
The Green Bay defense has only faced passes thrown an average of 5.2 yards, one of the shortest in the league, as Justin Fields and Desmond Ridder rarely challenged this unit downfield. Carr is an experienced veteran who will bring some big plays to Green Bay this week.
The Pick
Shaheed has 89 and 63 yards in the games this season. A line like 40.5 is something he can hit with one play. But even if this game goes sour for New Orleans and it has to throw more in a higher-scoring game, that still favors this line going over for one of the more intriguing new receivers in the NFL.
NFL Pick: Rashid Shaheed Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetRivers
Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Justin Fields (Chicago Bears)
This has already been a wild week in Chicago after Justin Fields referenced coaching being part of his problems this year, and then the team’s defensive coordinator resigned after just 2 games.
But one thing you needed to hear from Fields was that he’s been playing robotic football and needs to get back to playing by his instincts. My interpretation is that he is going to run the ball a lot this week, either by design or on scrambles where he is one of the most effective running quarterbacks ever.
We’ve seen this play out last season in Chicago. Through Week 5, Fields only averaged 38.8 rushing yards per game in the team’s poor offensive start. Then he started running in a game against Washington (88 yards) and the team almost pulled it out at the end. He ran for 82 yards and a touchdown in a win over New England, then he kept raising the bar. Fields averaged 94.9 rushing yards per game over the last 10 games of 2022.
His line is only 58.5 this week, so this is well within his capabilities. Jalen Hurts had 15 rushes for 70 yards and 3 touchdowns for the Eagles against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Hurts is one of the only comparable quarterbacks to Fields in the way he runs the ball.
The Pick
As a passer, Fields may very well never make it in the NFL. But he can be a deadly runner, and he is going to need points in Kansas City to keep up with Patrick Mahomes. After rushing for only 3 yards last week in a loss to Tampa Bay, expect Fields to have his best rushing game this season on Sunday.
NFL Pick: Justin Fields Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetRivers
Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Lumen Field
Miles Sanders (Carolina Panthers)
The idea here is the Panthers will fare better on offense this week with veteran Andy Dalton at quarterback instead of rookie Bryce Young, who has an ankle injury. Young will have better days ahead of him, but things have been awful so far as he is only averaging 4.2 yards per pass attempt, which would be frighteningly low for a season if he finished with that number.
Even Dalton is at 7.1 YPA for his career, which is about the average in the league during his tenure. With Dalton, the veteran receivers will have someone who can get them the ball better this week, and the Seattle defense is also very vulnerable after getting lit up by Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff already.
If the offense is moving the ball better, then Carolina will hopefully score its first rushing touchdowns of the season. Miles Sanders has not had a great start in his time with the Panthers, but he will still be the preferred option at the goal line should the team have opportunities there.
The Pick
Only 4 offenses have had fewer drives reach the red zone than the Panthers (5), so let’s hope Dalton helps them move the ball better and sets up Sanders for a touchdown. The Seahawks have allowed a touchdown on all 5 trips by the opposing offense in the red zone this year.
NFL Pick: Miles Sanders Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+145) at Caesars Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at Allegiant Stadium
Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh Steelers)
The Pittsburgh offense has been abysmal, with just 19 points and a league-low 24 first downs. So much for the starting unit that scored 5 touchdowns on 5 drives in the preseason.
Offensive coordinator Matt Canada gets most of the blame as he has now gone 37 games in a row without a single 400-yard performance for his offense. But it is getting to the point where 2nd-year Kenny Pickett has to be held accountable too for this lousy showing.
Pickett currently ranks dead last in QBR (19.9) and he still has not hit 10 touchdown passes in his career despite throwing 465 passes in 15 games.
In fact, Pickett is inching towards historic company as he has not thrown multiple touchdowns in any of his first 14 starts. This is not normal.
Only 5 quarterbacks since 1950 needed at least 15 starts before they threw multiple touchdown passes in a game:
- Steve Fuller needed 19 starts to do it.
- Rick Mirer needed 16 starts to do it.
- Neil Lomax, Steve Young, and Kellen Clemens all finally hit 2 touchdown passes in their 15th start.
Young aside, this is not the company Pickett wants to be in. He needs to be more decisive and accurate with his throws. Fortunately, he gets an indoor game with a bad defense that he had one of his best moments against last year when he threw a game-winning touchdown pass to George Pickens, who is not part of the problem in Pittsburgh.
Pickett needs to play like the quarterback who ended games well as a rookie late in the season instead of someone who looks afraid to pull the trigger this season.
The Pick
The Raiders allowed the Broncos to average 52 yards per drive in Week 1 and then were picked apart by Buffalo last week after Josh Allen played one of the most careful games of his career and still threw 3 touchdown passes.
Pickett has thrown 1 touchdown pass in each of the last 6 games he finished, but we are looking for him to finally get over the hump and get No. 2 in this game in prime time.
NFL Pick: Kenny Pickett Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+133) at Caesars Sportsbook
