It’s a big week for the SEC where three crucial matchups made the cut as the best of the best of Week 4 NCAAF picks.
- Auburn +8.5 (-108) at SugarHouse
- Ole Miss-Alabama Under 55 (-110) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)
- Arkansas +18 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Saturday, September 23, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Kyle Field
College Station is where the big day in the SEC begins, and the 12th Man will be out in full force in what is a must-win for the Texas Aggies. Problem is, the 12th Man has only helped the Aggies once in the Tigers’ last 5 visits to Kyle Field.
Last 2 Meeting Cash ‘Under’ Tickets
The top-rated betting sites are carrying A&M as favorites in the 8- to 9-point range, with 52.5 the consensus total among them.
This is a rivalry that has gone the way of the visiting teams more times than not. Auburn has won 6 of the 11 games played as SEC foes, and home teams have only claimed three of those victories.
Last year’s defensive struggle in Auburn marked the second consecutive ‘under’ winner in the series. The Tigers ultimately prevailed, 13-10, keeping the Aggies out of the end zone until the final 2 minutes of the contest. A year earlier, it was Texas A&M flexing its defensive muscle in a 20-3 final.
Can Ags Contain Dual-Threat Thorne?
Both quarterbacks, Payton Thorne of Auburn and Conner Weigman of Texas A&M are coming off solid performances in Week 3 wins. Neither the Tigers nor the Aggies played what one might call formidable opponents, with Auburn thumping Samford 45-13 and A&M whistling past Louisiana-Monroe 47-3.
I won’t be surprised if Auburn leaves College Station with the outright dubya, but will take the points just to play it safe.
NCAAF Pick: Auburn +8.5 (-108) at SugarHouse
Saturday, September 23, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Bryant-Denny Stadium
It’s hard to be a college football bettor and not be interested in the Ole Miss-Alabama game. With most of the mid-afternoon sports bar crowd tuned into the CBS broadcast from the all-too-familiar surroundings in Tuscaloosa, the pressure’s on Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide following a loss at home and a narrow road victory.
Tide Double-Digit Chalk for 8th-Straight Meeting
A quick glance at the OddsTrader college football odds finds the Crimson Tide favored by 7, the shortest spread on Alabama since 2014 when Saban’s squad was giving up 5.5 on the road. Saturday’s total is 55, the smallest number there since 2017.
Alabama has won each of the last 7 matchups, though Ole Miss covered 4 of those contests getting at least 10 points each time. The last two contests sent ‘under’ bettors back to collect.
A couple of field goals in the fourth quarter were the difference in the Crimson Tide’s 30-24 win last season in Oxford. Ole Miss led 10-0 early and had the ball at the end of the game only to come up short on an incomplete pass in the Alabama end zone.
Rebels Taking Big Step Up in Competition
Lane Kiffin brings the Rebels in a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread. Safe to say, however, that Alabama will have more talent on the field than Mercer, Tulane and Georgia Tech. Alabama was never close to covering the huge spread at South Florida last week, but the defense was vastly improved from the unit that got chewed up through the air in the loss to Texas.
I’m counting on that defense – and continued trouble for Alabama’s offense – to keep this one from going past the total.
NCAAF Pick: Under 55 (-110) at BetRivers
Saturday, September 23, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Tiger Stadium
Once matters are decided in College Station and Tuscaloosa, Arkansas and LSU takes centerstage in prime-time down in Baton Rouge. It’s the beginning of a very tough 4-game stretch for the Razorbacks while the Tigers can stake themselves to a 2-0 start in the tough SEC West.
Bayou Bengals Big Chalk at Home
Betting LSU in front of its home crowd means giving up 18 points, with some shops offering a half-point lower. Most outlets have 55.5 for the total.
Each of the last three meetings was decided by 3 points, with the road team winning each time. Louisiana State has the all-time advantage at 43-23 with 2 ties, and the Tigers also hold a 20-11 lead as SEC opponents.
Neither team crossed the 300-yard plateau in last year’s defensive battle up in Fayetteville where the Tigers held off the Razorbacks, 13-10. It was much the same in Baton Rouge the season before when Arkansas pushed its 3-point road chalk in a 16-13 final that went to overtime.
Tigers Win, Hogs Cover
Hey, I get it. Falling at home as a 9-point favorite against BYU doesn’t exactly instill a lot of confidence in the Razorbacks. But Arkansas beat itself as much, maybe even more than the Cougars won the game. I’m taking the points with my last free college football ATS best bet.
NCAAF Pick: Arkansas +18 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook