There’s plenty of value on the college football slate for Saturday. Many teams will begin conference play this weekend. That’s got everyone pumped up!
Here are three college football computer picks that the AI Model likes for Week 4, so let’s break down the college football odds for these games!
Picks Summary
- Tulsa +3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Auburn +7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Miami/Temple Over 52.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Miami Hurricanes vs. Temple Owls
Saturday, September 23, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Lincoln Financial Field
The computers suggest the Miami Hurricanes and Temple Owls will combine for 59 points in Saturday’s matchup. With the Over at just 52.5, there’s a full touchdown more in the projected points. That Over is looking nice.
Banking on a Touchdown or Two for the Over
The Temple Owls don’t have a ton of offense to provide, but a touchdown or two would likely be enough to force this game Over the total.
Temple has still earned nearly 400 yards of offense this season. E.J. Warner has thrown for 760 yards and four touchdowns. Temple will stick around for at least the first half if the pass protection can be slightly better for Warner.
Temple likes to get rid of the ball quickly. Therefore, pass protection isn’t crucial to their success, but if no one is open, you’d like to see the pass protection play better.
Can Temple Capitalize on Miami’s Weakness?
Miami’s defense is excellent. However, the secondary is the weakest part of the defense. That’s why I believe Temple can put some points on the board.
On the other hand, the Hurricanes will do their part. This team added 48 points against Texas A&M a couple of weeks ago. They also scored 38 on Miami-OH.
Miami’s offense has earned over 500 yards, including 188 yards on the ground, but Tyler Van Dyke has been the most impressive player. He’s at quarterback and has thrown for 822 yards with eight touchdowns and just one interception.
Van Dyke’s growth has shown throughout this season.
The Pick
Therefore, I like Miami to win big, but the Over is the best play in this game.
NCAAF Pick: Over 52.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
Saturday, September 23, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Huskie Stadium
Our computers believe Tulsa will earn a 31-23 win over Northern Illinois on the road. Tulsa is a 3.5-point underdog, so there’s clear value on Tulsa in this game.
Tulsa’s Defensive Hopes
Northern Illinois’ Rocky Lombardi has thrown one touchdown and four interceptions this season. That won’t get the job done.
The Huskies have earned only 282.3 yards per game, with only 85 yards on the ground, so they rely heavily on Lombardi, who continues to make mistakes and give up turnovers.
Tulsa’s defense has a lot of issues, especially in the secondary, but the run defense is good, and if they can get third down and long, they’ll make plays with a solid pass rush.
Offensive Showdown
While Northern Illinois might be the better defense, Tulsa is undoubtedly the better offense. They’ve added nearly 400 yards of offense, with 167.7 on the ground.
They’re more balanced with the attack and have a great runner in Jordan Ford. He’s averaged 4.3 yards per carry on 43 attempts.
Tulsa will want to run in this game as much as possible because they’ll want to avoid Northern Illinois’ solid secondary, but if they can rip off five yards here and there on the ground, they’ll work their way to the endzone.
Northern Illinois’ offense isn’t built like that.
The Pick
Take Tulsa against the spread at the best online sportsbooks.
NCAAF Pick: Tulsa +3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Auburn Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, September 23, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Kyle Field
Our computers believe the Auburn Tigers will keep things close against the Texas A&M Aggies on Saturday. The model has this game as an even 29-29 tie. However, Auburn is a 7.5-point underdog in this game. There’s value in the Tigers!
SEC Showdown
We’re headed to conference play in the SEC.
The Auburn Tigers have knocked off UMass, California, and Samford. Now, they’ll get a real test at Texas A&M.
The offense has added 428 yards per game thanks to Payton Thorne, who has led the team in passing and rushing. It would be nice for another player to step up for Auburn on the offensive end.
However, I have to point out the defense for Auburn. It’s been terrific. They’ve allowed only 264 yards per game through the first three games. The run defense is electric, and the coverage in the secondary has been incredible.
A lot of analysts and critics haven’t talked about Auburn very much. They’ve taken that defense for granted. It’s good, and they’ll prove it against Texas A&M on Saturday.
Surprises and Shortcomings on the Field
A&M already gave up 48 points to Miami earlier this year. Every year, it’s the same with the Aggies. They win games they’re not supposed to and look bad in games they should look good in.
The A&M offense has been good, and it’s because of Conner Weigman. Weigman has thrown for over 900 yards in three games and has eight passing touchdowns.
However, the run game has only earned 129.7 yards per game. It sounds good on paper, but they faced Louisiana-Monroe and New Mexico earlier this year. That number should be higher.
The Aggies don’t have great coverage and have missed plenty of tackles this season. The run defense is good, but they don’t compare to Auburn’s defense.
The Pick
Take Auburn at +7.5.
NCAAF Pick: Auburn +7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
