There are some elite games in Week 4 of the NFL season, including Dolphins-Bills and Ravens-Browns. We have player prop picks for those as well as some interesting games in Steelers-Texans, Raiders-Chargers, and Monday night’s Seahawks-Giants game.
With the help of the player props section on OddsTrader, we have recapped our favorite player props for Week 4.
Picks Summary
- Raheem Mostert (MIA) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+109) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Lamar Jackson (BAL) Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-129) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Nico Collins (HOU) Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-112) at BetRivers
- Joshua Palmer (LAC) Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Daniel Jones (NYG) Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 1, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Highmark Stadium
Raheem Mostert (Miami Dolphins)
This shootout should be a lot of fun in Buffalo. The Dolphins got 4 touchdowns each from running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane last week, only the second time in NFL history a pair of teammates did that in a game. It is hard to imagine they get shut out of the end zone this week.
Mostert is still a reliable option with his experience. He also had 136 rushing yards in Buffalo last year, including a 67-yard run. He did not play in the wild card game due to injury, but he gets a chance here in a big game against the Bills with first place on the line.
The Bills have not faced many rushing plays due to leading so much this year, but they are allowing a league-worst 5.9 yards per carry on the ground. Mostert just so happens to be averaging 5.9 yards per carry this season for Miami.
The Prop Pick
Mostert leads the NFL with 7 touchdowns right now, but if you wanted to swap this pick out for his over in rushing yards (53.5), then that may be the safer call. But in using OddsTrader, we see Caesars Sportsbook has Mostert at +109 for anytime touchdown, much better odds than competitors who are in the -120 to -140 range. This looks like a good value for Miami’s veteran back.
NFL Pick: Raheem Mostert Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+109) at Caesars Sportsbook
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, October 1, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Cleveland Browns Stadium
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
The Cleveland defense is no doubt scary right now. The Browns are the 1st defense since the 2000 Titans to have a 3-game streak of allowing single-digit first downs. The Browns held Joe Burrow and the Bengals to 67 net passing yards in Week 1, and they did it again to Ryan Tannehill and the Titans last week with 68 net passing yards.
In fact, the Titans had 94 yards of total offense for the game last week, a pathetic performance by that unit. But Cleveland is causing havoc right now behind new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, who is getting the most out of Myles Garrett.
With Baltimore’s numerous injuries and lackluster showing against the Colts last week, it is hard to trust this offense to be productive in this matchup. Taking the unders in the passing game may be wise.
But this also feels like a spot where Lamar Jackson will take over as a runner again. Cleveland knows he can do that, but that hasn’t made the Browns stop him in the past. In full starts against the Browns, Jackson has rushed for 90, 66, 103, 45, 124, 68, and 59 yards. That means the over 48.5 would have hit in 6-of-7 games.
The Prop Pick
This season, Jackson rushed for 54 yards in a big game in Cincinnati. He was great last week with 101 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground in a losing effort. Whether it is scrambles or designed runs, Jackson should get double-digit carries and grind this one out for his team. Trust him to break 50 yards and get the rushing over.
NFL Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-129) at Caesars Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, October 1, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at NRG Stadium
Nico Collins (Houston Texans)
While there was concern over the weapons around rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud going into 2023, the Texans are making things work with an interesting wide receiver trio of Robert Woods, Nico Collins, and rookie Tank Dell.
Houston now has those 3 wideouts with 15 catches each. Collins leads the team with 260 yards. Dell was great last week while Collins was quiet (34 yards) but look for things to change this week.
Collins is 6’4” and has the type of size advantage at receiver that should serve him well in this matchup against a Pittsburgh secondary that is getting torn up by more traditional No. 1 wide receivers. Brandon Aiyuk (129 yards), Amari Cooper (90 yards), and Davante Adams (172 yards) have all hung big numbers on this defense.
The Prop Pick
The Texans are 7th in pass attempts and 6th in passing yards behind their rookie quarterback, who has not thrown an interception yet. There should be plenty of opportunities in the passing game for Collins to put up numbers to hit this over again.
NFL Pick: Nico Collins Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-112) at BetRivers
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, October 1, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
Joshua Palmer (Los Angeles Chargers)
The Chargers can never enjoy a win. After Justin Herbert had the first 400-yard passing game of his career, it came with the bad news that No. 2 receiver Mike Williams tore his ACL and is done for the season.
That is a lot of yards to replace for this offense, which is likely to be without running back Austin Ekeler again as well. Rookie Quentin Johnston is not a reliable target yet to fill Williams’ shoes as he has just 26 yards in 3 games.
But this is a golden opportunity for Joshua Palmer, who had 66 yards and a touchdown in his best game of the season last week. Palmer got used to playing frequently last year with injuries to Williams and Keenan Allen. Palmer had 9 games last year with over 43.5 yards, including a 60-yard game against the Raiders in the last meeting.
The Prop Pick
The Chargers are still going to rely heavily on the passing game, and there are still weapons here without Williams and Ekeler. Palmer is a great option to fill in this week against a bad Raiders defense that just let the Steelers look like a competent passing team. Herbert should not struggle to find Palmer for over 43.5 yards at home.
NFL Pick: Joshua Palmer Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants
Monday, October 2, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium
Daniel Jones (New York Giants)
If we are having regrets watching the Giants in prime time again, imagine how the team feels about giving Daniel Jones a $160 million contract extension. Jones has failed to pass for 140 yards in 2 of 3 games this season, but at least he can argue those were against the Cowboys and 49ers.
Jones passed for 321 yards against Arizona, an anonymous defensive cast, showing he can still move the offense and score 31 points in one half if the opponent is bad enough. Last year, Jones had a pair of 300-yard passing games against a lousy Minnesota secondary too.
If it takes a poor pass defense to get Jones going in Brian Daboll’s offense, then this should be the right week for him. The 2023 Seahawks join the 2012 Redskins as the only defenses in NFL history to allow 300 passing yards and at least 27 points in each of the first 3 games of a season.
Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Andy Dalton have already passed for over 300 yards on this defense. Jones doesn’t need to get that many to hit his over, but it could be a fun alternate line play.
Last year, Jones only had 176 yards in a loss in Seattle, but the Seahawks were worse against the run in 2022. The pass is the bigger issue this year.
The Prop Pick
No matter if Saquon Barkley returns at running back, this feels like a spot where Jones can put something together in the passing game to at least look the part of a franchise quarterback. If he is still struggling to pass for 150 yards against this Seattle defense, then the Giants are going to have to consider starting a quarterback who can.
NFL Pick: Daniel Jones Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook
