The computers at OddsTrader gave us three bets to consider for Week 5 of the College Football season. Which of the three will you tail on Saturday?
Picks Summary
- Akron -2.5 (-110)Â
- Eastern Michigan-Central Michigan Over 48.5 (-110)
- Arkansas State +1 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Buffalo Bulls vs. Akron Zips
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at InfoCision Stadium
Our AI Model believes the Akron Zips will earn a 33-24 win against the Buffalo Bulls on Saturday. With Akron sitting at -2.5, there’s value in the Zips for Saturday’s MAC showdown.
Near-Upset Over Indiana Boosts Akron’s Confidence
The Akron Zips came close to earning a Big Ten win over Indiana last weekend. Akron forced the game into overtime but lost 29-27 in the fourth overtime against Indiana.
Indiana is one of the worst Big Ten teams, but a win against the Hoosiers would’ve been incredible for the team. Either way, that game will instill confidence in the team. They know they can compete with teams at a higher level.
The Zips are coming off back-to-back losses to Kentucky and Indiana. They also lost to Temple earlier this year, but those games will surely help them in MAC play.
The Akron defense has dominated against the run and has a quality pass rush with an above-average secondary. Now they’ll take on a Buffalo Bulls team that only averages 353.5 yards per game on offense.
The run block could be better, and all Buffalo has is a passing game with Cole Snyder.
Akron’s Passing Game vs. Struggling Buffalo Defense
Meanwhile, Buffalo has allowed 512.3 yards per game on defense. The secondary has been lit up, and the missed tackles are getting high for the Bulls.
Akron doesn’t have much of a running game, but they’ll have success passing the football on Buffalo.
That should be enough to earn a win against the Bulls at home.
The Pick
Take Akron -2.5 at the NCAAF odds. They’ve got some momentum, despite a four-overtime loss.
NCAAF Pick: Akron -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Central Michigan Chippewas
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 01:30 PM EDT at Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Our AI Model believes Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan will make some points in Saturday’s game. The model has a total of 55. However, the top online sportsbooks have it at just 48.5.
Finding Hope in Eastern Michigan’s Offense
The Eastern Michigan Eagles didn’t score a single point last week, but that’s why I think there’s value in the Over.
Over the weekend, the Eagles will face a Central Michigan defense that has allowed 481.8 yards per game. Eastern Michigan better figure out its offense in this one.
The passing game has struggled with Austin Smith under center. He’s got two passing touchdowns and two interceptions, but he’s facing off against one of the worst secondaries in college football.
I’m confident he’ll perform at a higher level in this game.
High-Scoring Showdown
Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan has also allowed 415 yards per game defensively. Central Michigan has the more explosive offense, coming off a 34-30 win over a quality South Alabama team.
When these two teams played last year, they combined for nearly 60 points in a 38-19 win by Eastern Michigan.
The Pick
Both defenses have allowed a combined total yards of almost 900. Let’s take the Over in this game.
NCAAF Pick: Over 48.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. UMass Minutemen
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
The AI Model suggests Arkansas State will pull off a minor road upset against the UMass Minutemen on Saturday. Arkansas State is a one-point underdog, but the AI Model projects the score at 30-26 in favor of Arkansas State.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Aim for Victory
The Arkansas State Red Wolves are on a two-game winning streak, with wins over Stony Brook and Southern Miss.
They also began the season with losses to Oklahoma and Memphis, which is understandable. The Red Wolves won the games they were supposed to and lost the ones that weren’t supposed to win.
This game against UMass is a game they’ll be expected to win. Arkansas State has allowed 447.8 yards per game defensively, but that was thanks to facing Oklahoma and Memphis. They won’t be this bad against a 1-4 UMass squad.
The Red Wolves have a solid secondary, average pass rush, and run defense. They’re also excellent on the run offensively, earning 162.3 yards per game.
Ja’Quez Cross has averaged 7.6 yards per carry on 38 attempts this season. They’ll feed him the ball against a UMass defense that is also very average on defense.
Defensive Struggles & Offensive Hopes
The Minutemen have allowed 421.4 yards per game defensively, including 201 yards in the run game. Cross should have a field day against this defense.
On the other hand, UMass has a solid run game with Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams. But the run block hasn’t done well enough to be consistent.
The Pick
Therefore, I like Arkansas State to come away with a victory in this game.
NCAAF Pick: Arkansas State +1 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
