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Week 5 NCAA College Football Last Call Value Picks

We’ve got three more picks from the OddsTrader computer as we approach Saturday’s major slate in college football. Which bets are we tailing?

Picks Summary


Bowling Green Falcons vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 3:30 PM EDT at Bobby Dodd Stadium


Our AI Model believes Georgia Tech and Bowling Green will combine for 58 points, with the Yellow Jackets earning a 37-21 win against the Falcons. However, oddsmakers have the total sitting at 51 in this game. The Over is the play.

This isn’t about Bowling Green’s offense. It’s more about Georgia Tech’s. Haynes King has already thrown for 11 touchdowns on 129 attempts. He’s also earned 1132 yards passing for the Yellow Jackets to begin the season.

Bowling Green’s secondary has allowed 184. 3 yards per game. But that’s since they’ve played a lot of run-heavy offenses. King should succeed against a Bowling Green secondary that might be overrated.

On the other hand, Georgia Tech’s defense has allowed 425.3 yards per game. The Falcons don’t have an iconic offense, but they have a former Big Ten and SEC quarterback in starter Connor Bazelak. He’s struggled but should be up to the task in this game, especially knowing he’ll have more time in the pocket.

I like the Over in this game.

NCAAF Pick: Over 51 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook


Houston Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 3:30 PM EDT at Jones AT&T Stadium


Our AI Model believes the Houston Cougars and Texas Tech Red Raiders will earn 67 points in this matchup. With the Over at just 50.5, this game has plenty of value.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders will need Tyler Shough for this game. He’s a senior who has thrown for seven touchdowns and had a QBR of 55.7 before getting injured.

He’ll be replaced by Behren Morton, who has already thrown for three touchdowns and has just one interception. He’s undoubtedly a downgrade for the Texas Tech offense. But not by two total touchdowns and a field goal.

Texas Tech has earned over 400 yards of offense per game, including 162 yards on the ground. They’ll earn some chunks of yards with Tahj Brooks. Brooks has earned 6.7 yards per carry on 62 attempts this season.

Houston also doesn’t have a terrific pass rush and has missed a solid amount of tackles this season. On the other hand, Houston’s offense has earned 395.3 yards per game. But the defense has given up over 400 yards of offense per game. Houston’s Donovan Smith will have time in the pocket. The pass protection has been tremendous, and the Texas Tech pass rush isn’t terrific.

With that, the Cougars should also be able to put some points on the board. I agree with the AI Model. Take the Over.

NCAAF Pick: Over 50.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook


Boise State Broncos vs. Memphis Tigers

Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 4:00 PM EDT at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium


The AI Model suggests Memphis will earn an 11-point win over the Boise State Broncos. With Memphis at just -3, it makes sense to grab the Tigers against the spread in this game.

The Memphis Tigers have gone 3-1 this season but lost to Missouri at home, 34-27 last weekend. After that loss, Missouri made it into the AP Top 25. That’s a one-score loss to a Top-25 team now. The Tigers have averaged 436.8 yards per game on offense. They’ve earned nearly 280 yards in the air and nearly 158 more on the ground.

Seth Henigan has already thrown for 1107 yards and eight touchdowns. He also has five interceptions for Memphis, so he must make better decisions. Still, Memphis has done well blocking for Henigan in the passing game. That shouldn’t change in this game, knowing that Boise State’s defensive line hasn’t been very elite to begin the season.

The Broncos have allowed 430 yards per game on defense, including just under 295 yards in the passing game. Boise State’s secondary has been below average, along with its tackling and run defense. The pass rush has also been average. It’s not always effective.

On the other hand, Memphis has held teams to 323.8 yards per game defensively. Teams have earned less than 170 yards per game in the air against an elite Memphis secondary.

Boise State has no elite passing game and must run the football effectively to beat Memphis.

Taylen Green has thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions for Boise State this season. He’ll likely throw one or two more in this matchup.

Let’s take the Tigers at -3. The AI Model knows.

NCAAF Pick: Memphis -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

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