Each week throughout the college football season OddsTrader scours the odds board and highlights three of the biggest potential upsets for that week’s NCAAF slate.
These are underdogs that will not only cover the spread but are poised to pull the outright victory. Last week West Virginia not only covered as 6-point underdogs but defeated Texas Tech outright at +192 on the moneyline!
Let’s see what we have for Week 5!
Picks Summary
- Duke (+175)
- Ole Miss (+135)
- Virginia (+135)Â
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Duke Blue Devils
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 07:30 PM EDT at Wallace Wade Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- Duke is ranked 4th in the nation on defense, allowing just 8.8 points per game.
- Duke has allowed only 1 turnover this season.
- Duke is undefeated and has an average margin of victory of 28.5 points.
The Fighting Irish are coming off their first loss of the season, a hard-fought 17-14 setback to Ohio State but covered as 3½ point home dogs. Nevertheless, that must be a punch in the gut to their CFP aspirations and now they have to pack up and take on another nationally ranked powerhouse in hostile territory as they visit the Blue Devils on Saturday night.
The Devils opened their season with a thrilling 28-7 victory over highly-touted Clemson and then followed that with three cupcakes, scoring easy victories over lightly heralded Lafayette, Northwestern, and last week dispatched U Conn.
This will certainly be their sternest test but I believe they are getting the Irish at the right time, coming off an emotional loss, and getting points at home to boot. Back the live dog here and cash with Duke!
NCAAF Pick: Duke +5½ (-110) at BetRivers
NCAAF Pick: Duke (+175) at Caesars Sportsbook
LSU Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 06:00 PM EDT at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- LSU is ranked 71st in defense, allowing 25 points per game.
- Ole Miss is ranked 33rd in defense, allowing 18.5 points per game.
- Ole Miss has covered 3 of their 4 games this season.
This early evening Southeastern Conference showdown features a pair of national powerhouses with undefeated LSU taking on Ole Miss, a team that suffered its first loss of the year last week against Alabama. Ole Miss has covered five of the last seven contests between these squads but they will want to avenge last year’s brutal 45-20 road loss as one-point underdogs.
Despite the Rebels’ first defeat of the season, they didn’t look bad against Bama in the 24-10 loss in Tuscaloosa. However, I was not impressed with the Tigers’ narrow victory over a middling Arkansas team in which LSU had to battle to the bitter end to claim a 34-31 win as 18-point home chalk at the top sportsbooks.
The Rebels will have a raucous crowd behind them and if the oddsmakers are going to give me points with the better team and the home-field advantage, then why not? Also, a moneyline play here on the Rebs is not a bad idea either.
NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss +3 (-110) at Bet365
NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss (+135) at Caesars Sportsbook
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Boston College Eagles
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 02:00 PM EDT at Alumni Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- Boston College has covered just 1 of their 4 games this season.
- Boston College ranks 63rd in total offense (400.3 yards per game) and 105th in total defense (413.5 yards allowed per game) this year.
- Virginia’s Malik Washington leads the team with a 16.4 yards per reception average and three touchdowns.
It’s not unusual that the public is fading Virginia after beginning the season 0-4, with their most recent loss being a 24-21 setback to NC State. However, the Cavaliers were in that game until the very end, having lost on a successful field goal attempt with no time expiring. If there is such a thing as a good loss, that was it, as Virginia covered as 7-point home underdogs and is now 2-2 ATS thus far.
Boston College enters this game with a 1-3 straight up and ATS mark after dropping a 56-28 decision to Louisville on the road. They also failed at the betting windows as 14-point road dogs only a week after an impressive performance against top 5 Florida State. In that game, BC hung tough but ultimately came out on the wrong side of a 31-29 decision, yet easily covered as 27½ point home hounds.
Look, neither team is very good, but Virginia has a linebacking corps that will make or break this game. If they stay close to the line to stuff the run or blitz on passing plays it will make life difficult on the BC offense. They don’t handle the blitz well and although Virginia is not a lockdown defense, they are good enough to pull the upset over their lackluster ACC rivals.
NCAAF Pick: Virginia +3½ (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
NCAAF Pick: Virginia (+135) at Caesars Sportsbook
