We’ve got plenty of amazing games on the NCAAF slate on Saturday. Here are three games that the AI Model likes for some college football betting action.
Picks Summary
- Arkansas-Ole Miss Over 62.5 (-110)
- Utah State +3 (-110)
- Texas Tech -1.5 (-110)
*All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, October 7, 2023 – 07:30 PM EDT at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Our AI Model believes Arkansas and Ole Miss will combine for 72 points in this SEC showdown. With the total at 62.5, the Over is a clear value play.
The SEC is starting to become offensive-heavy. Ole Miss added 55 points in a 55-49 win over LSU. They’ve also scored at least 37 points in every game but the one against Alabama.
On the other hand, Arkansas has lost three straight games, allowing at least 34 points to BYU, LSU, and Texas A&M.
It’s very likely that Ole Miss scores at least 41 points, if not more. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have earned 342.2 yards per game on offense and have a senior quarterback in KJ Jefferson, who will be able to dissect the Ole Miss defense.
Raheim Sanders’ Return
Arkansas doesn’t have the best pass protection. But they’ve got great playmakers, including Raheim Sanders, who just returned from the injury list last weekend.
Sanders had 1,443 yards rushing while averaging 6.5 yards per carry last season. As he gets more comfortable, he’ll get going. Therefore, let’s take the Over in this SEC matchup.
NCAAF Pick: Over 62.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbooks
Colorado State Rams vs. Utah State Aggies
Saturday, October 7, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium
Our computers believe Utah State will earn a 41-22 win over Colorado State on Saturday. However, the Aggies are sitting at +3 at home. The oddsmakers have it wrong in this game, per our AI Model.
Utah State is taking on Colorado State in one of three Mountain West games on the slate for Saturday.
The Aggies are getting better quarterback play from McCae Hillstead injured. Hillstead has a 30.2 QBR, which is 118th in college football. Now he’ll be replaced by a senior quarterback, Cooper Legas, who has a 51.8 QBR. Quarterback protection hasn’t been good, but Utah State has a lot of playmaking around Legas to make some plays happen.
They’ll take on a solid Colorado State defense. There likely won’t be too much scoring. But I like the thought of a senior quarterback getting the start over a freshman against top defenses.
Aggies’ Strong Secondary Faces Rams’ Passing Game
Meanwhile, Utah State hasn’t rushed the passer much. But the secondary is one of the best in the Mountain West. They’ve also missed fewer tackles and overall, can stick around against a Colorado State offense that doesn’t have much of a run game.
The Rams have rushed for just 71 yards per game. So now Colorado State will throw the ball against a fantastic coverage unit for Utah State.
I’ll take my chances with Utah State at -110 betting odds. I agree with the AI Model.
NCAAF Pick: Utah State +3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbooks
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Baylor Bears
Saturday, October 7, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at McLane Stadium
The AI Model suggests Texas Tech will earn a 39-22 win over the Baylor Bears. With the Red Raiders at just -1.5, taking Texas Tech is the right move in this game.
The Baylor Bears returned from a massive 29-point deficit against UCF and earned a 36-35 win last Saturday. However, the Bears are still just 2-3 and probably should’ve also lost that game. Baylor would be panicking if it were 1-4 to begin the season.
The Bears have Blake Shapen back at quarterback, which has been a boost. Shapen was injured for most of the start of the season after an injury in Week 1. The offense moves better with Shapen at quarterback, earning over 400 yards per game.
Baylor’s run game has also earned 142.4 yards per game behind Richard Reese, who has rushed for five yards a carry and has two touchdowns.
Baylor will want success on the ground because they will unlikely succeed in the air. Texas Tech has allowed just 375.8 yards per game, including only 228 yards per game in the air. The secondary has played very well, and the Red Raiders continue to convert on most tackles. That’s ideal for this defense.
Texas Tech to Exploit Baylor’s Defensive Weaknesses
On the other hand, Texas Tech is playing without Tyler Shough. Behren Morton was relieved last week and added two touchdowns in the air. He led the Red Raiders to 49 points in a 49-28 win over Houston.
Texas Tech will have success no matter who plays quarterback. Baylor’s defense has been totally inconsistent. They’ve missed tackles, haven’t been good against the run, and continue to struggle against the pass.
With the Red Raiders earning over 400 yards on offense, don’t be surprised with Texas Tech earning a massive in on the road.
NCAAF Pick: Texas Tech -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbooks
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
