The NFL’s Week 6 schedule starts with another London game between the Titans and Ravens, who both lost last week. We are also dialed in on Miami’s record-setting speed against the Panthers, and if the Arizona Cardinals can contain Cooper Kupp as only they can when they play the Rams.
After evaluating the OddsTrader computer picks, we have picked 3 of our favorite bets that you can find at the top sportsbooks for Week 6.
Picks Summary
- Ravens-Titans Under 40 Points (-110)
- Panthers-Dolphins Over 48.5 Points (-110)
- Cardinals-Rams Under 48 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Ravens and Titans Renew Old-School Rivalry
We took the under in the games with the Ravens and Titans last week to much success as neither team surpassed 16 points themselves and neither of their games hit 40 total points. We could see something similar this week, as both have struggled to score at times this year, and this is a rivalry with a history of hard-fought, physical games.
The Ravens are a 3-point favorite with a total of 40 points. We are looking at the under.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, October 15, 2023 – 09:30 AM EDT at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Baltimore’s Brutal Performance in Pittsburgh
It is still hard to believe the Ravens scored 10 points in Pittsburgh and none on their final 9 possessions despite ample opportunities for scores. An excessive number of dropped passes, poor game management, and an inability to handle the pass rush late in the game led to one of the more disappointing losses in the Lamar Jackson era.
You can expect a better effort from the Ravens this week, but they are middle of the pack in the NFL at scoring (21.8 points per game). They have yet to score more than 28 points in any game, and 3-of-5 Baltimore games have failed to hit 35 total points.
Similarly, the Titans have seen 4-of-5 games fall under 40 points this year. The Titans were shockingly bad at defending the run in Indianapolis last week after allowing just 2.9 yards per carry through Week 4. But the Titans usually can stop the run and force teams to pass, which is the opposite of what the Ravens like to do.
But the Ravens have leaned on Jackson more in this new offensive system. Jackson has not faced the Titans since the 2020 playoffs when Baltimore won 20-13, which is still the only playoff win in the Jackson era.
Tennessee’s Offense Does Not Travel Well
The Titans are now 0-3 on the road and 2-0 at home this season. The Titans scored 27 points in both home games but have not cracked 17 points on the road yet. But last Sunday’s 23-16 loss in Indianapolis is a little misleading as that game saw the Titans only have 7 possessions, so it was more offensive than the score suggests.
Ryan Tannehill is finding a groove with DeAndre Hopkins, but the other receivers are not stepping up yet. The running game has also been mediocre, with Derrick Henry averaging a career-low 3.8 yards per carry, which would be his first season under 4.2.
The Titans rank 23rd on 3rd down and 29th in the red zone, so the situational play has been poor. Against the Colts, Henry was stuffed on a crucial 4th-and-1 in scoring range in the 4th quarter of that loss.
The Ravens have not allowed more than 24 points in any game, and they have held 3-of-5 opponents to 17 points or fewer. Quarterbacks are averaging a league-low 5.3 yards per pass attempt against this Baltimore defense.
The Pick
Neither offense feels like it is clicking on a high level or consistent basis, so the computer score producing a result a full touchdown below the total looks like a good bet for your NFL picks.
The playing surface at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium was also heavily criticized by the Bills, who suffered a lot of defensive injuries in their game on Sunday against Jacksonville. That was a game that was sitting at 11-7 in the 4th quarter too before a late scoring flurry, the likes of which these teams do not look built to repeat. Throw in the travel bogging both teams down, and we’ll gladly trust the under here.
Score Prediction: Ravens 18 – Titans 14
NFL Pick: Under 40 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Dolphins Are the NFL’s Track Team
Miami’s unreal speed is rewriting the record books for offense. The Dolphins get a home game with the NFL’s only winless team in Carolina, but the Panthers finally scored over 20 points with Bryce Young at quarterback for the first time in a 42-24 loss in Detroit.
The Panthers are a 13.5-point road underdog with a total of 48.5 points. We have the over in mind, thanks mostly to Miami of course.
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 15, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Hard Rock Stadium
Miami’s Historic Offense
While any team scoring 70 points in a game is going to have a huge advantage in the stats after Week 5, the Dolphins continue to be an elite and historically fast offense. The results are starting to seep into the record books for coach Mike McDaniel’s creation:
- Miami’s 2,568 yards of offense are the most in NFL history through 5 games in a season, beating out the 2000 Rams (2,527).
- The Dolphins have averaged 8.31 yards per play, the 2nd-highest average in any 5-game span in NFL history, only trailing those 2000 Rams (8.51).
- Miami is averaging a full 2 yards more per play than any other offense in 2023.
- According to Next Gen Stats, Miami has 7 of the top 9 plays this season for the fastest ball carrier in the league. These plays were all made by Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, and Raheem Mostert.
The explosion of Achane starting with the Denver game has really helped this offense add a new layer of attacking teams. Achane has popped a run of 55-plus yards in 3 straight games. He is the first player in NFL history to have 3 straight games where he averaged over 11 yards per carry on at least 8 rushes.
The 0-5 Panthers are Miami’s next victim. Carolina has already allowed 37 points to the Seahawks and 42 points to the Lions, the 2 best offenses it has faced. The Panthers are reasonable against the pass but have been chewed up on the ground, so this could be another monster game for Achane and company.
Encouraging Signs from Bryce Young?
The first 3 starts for No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young were rough, to say the least. He didn’t break 4.7 yards per pass attempt in either of the first 2 games. Against Minnesota, Young’s offense held the ball for over 38 minutes and scored 6 points, which had never been done before in NFL history.
While the Panthers lost big in Detroit, at least Young put together some scoring drives with the game out of reach. He threw for a season-high 247 yards and 3 touchdowns while leading the Panthers to 24 points. He also took just 1 sack, his first game without going down multiple times to sacks.
The bright spots are few and far between with this offense. Adam Thielen looks like he’s found a fountain of youth at least. But it was at least encouraging that Young drove the ball for touchdowns in Detroit.
The Pick
This really could be a repeat of last week’s game for Carolina as it struggles to stop a top offense from doing what it wants while the offense has to play catch-up all day long. But while the Miami defense stepped up against a terrible New York offense last week, the Panthers might have a little more fight in them with Frank Reich.
Trust the Panthers to do their share of scoring to help this go over 48.5 points as Miami continues to rewrite the record books on offense.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 31 – Panthers 21
NFL Pick: Over 48.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cooper Kupp Meets His Nemesis from Arizona
The Rams lost 23-14 against the Eagles in Week 5, but Cooper Kupp made his season debut and looked like he never missed a day of work. But the Rams and Cardinals are trying to avoid last place in the division as they meet for the first time this year.
The Rams are a 6-point home favorite with a total of 48 points. We are looking at the under here.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 15, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
Arizona Is Cooper Kupp’s Kryptonite
Since Matthew Stafford joined the Rams in 2021, his connection with wide receiver Cooper Kupp has been unreal. A much different receiver than Calvin Johnson, who Stafford had in Detroit, Kupp is seemingly always open for this offense.
After a hamstring injury knocked him out for 4 games, Kupp made his 2023 debut against the Eagles and immediately posted a game with 118 receiving yards on 8 catches and 12 targets. It was like he never left, and he seemed to adjust well with newcomer Puka Nacua.
But one defense has Kupp’s number.
- Including the playoffs, Kupp has played 31 games since 2021.
- Kupp reached at least 79 receiving yards in 27 of those 31 games.
- All 4 times he was held in check were against Arizona, which held him to 64, 61, 44, and -1 yards with the last one coming in the game Kupp was injured in last year.
Arizona did allow Kupp to have 123 yards in a 5th meeting since 2021, but no one has slowed him down better than the Cardinals.
The only problem here is that past success was the Kliff Kingsbury coaching staff and a much different group of starters in the defense. This is Jonathan Gannon’s defense, and while it has done some impressive things given the lack of proven names, the Cardinals just got destroyed by Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase for 15 catches, 192 yards, and 3 touchdowns.
But this is an interesting subplot to the game to see how well the Cardinals handle Kupp with a new coaching staff. Gannon will likely study what the Eagles, where he coached the last 2 years, did to this offense on Sunday. Despite Kupp and Nacua putting up yardage, the Rams were shut out after halftime and only scored 14 points in another disappointing loss.
Cardinals Lose James Conner, Turn It Over Too Much
The Cardinals lost 34-20 to the Bengals last week in their own disappointing performance. Joshua Dobbs and the offense did not turn the ball over in the 3 previous games, but a pick-6 in the 2nd quarter really turned things around and gave the trailing Bengals the lead for good. Dobbs turned it over 2 more times, and the team also lost running back James Conner to a knee injury after a good start.
It has been reported that this injury could keep Conner out for some time. The Cardinals do not have the greatest set of weapons, but Conner was having a career year for them before this setback.
Arizona has only played on the road twice this year and scored 16 points in each game. Despite the Rams having a lack of household names to back up Aaron Donald on defense, the Rams have only allowed more than 23 points in one game this year, and that was to the incredible 49ers, who needed some late turnovers to get short fields.
The Pick
When these teams met last year, the scores were 20-12 and 27-17 as both games were a struggle for the offenses. Their previous meeting was that disastrous playoff loss for Arizona in the 2021 wild card game, losing 34-11 to the Rams.
But that score would also satisfy the under 48 here. Keep an eye on what the new Cardinals do against Kupp this time, but the computer score here looks like a solid indicator that this one should stay under as these teams try to avoid falling into last place in the division.
Score Prediction: Rams 24 – Cardinals 18
NFL Pick: Under 48 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
