We’ve got plenty of exciting action in college football this week. Here are three bets that our computers like for Saturday’s slate of games for Week 7.
Picks Summary
- Notre Dame -2.5 (-110)
- Duke -3.5 (-110)
- UCLA-Oregon Under 54 (-110)
*Odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
USC Trojans vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, October 14, 2023 – 7:30 PM EDT at Notre Dame Stadium
Our AI Model believes the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will earn a 52-30 win over USC on Saturday. With Notre Dame sitting at just -2.5 against the spread, the value is there for the taking!
The USC Trojans almost lost a home game to Arizona last weekend. It took three overtimes for USC to sneak past Arizona finally.
Notre Dame’s Rushing Attack and USC’s Defense
The defense could be better, especially against the run. Meanwhile, Notre Dame loves to run the football. The Fighting Irish have rushed for 171 yards per game behind Audric Estime, who has 692 yards rushing and seven touchdowns on 105 carries.
On the other hand, Notre Dame’s defense has held teams to 279.4 yards per game. Compare that to USC’s defense, which has allowed 421.3 yards per game.
The Fighting Irish have a reliable secondary and a solid run defense. They struggled last weekend against Louisville. But in a home environment, against USC, they’ll be ready and prepared.
Clash of Quarterback Talents
Caleb Williams has already thrown 22 touchdowns with one interception over the first six games with USC. But he went just 14-25 against Arizona for 219 yards. He completed a season-low 56% of passes and only threw one touchdown with four sacks.
Notre Dame will watch the tape. Lincoln Riley also gave up on the passing game against Arizona in that game. That tells you something.
With the Fighting Irish led by veteran quarterback Sam Hartman, I like Notre Dame to escape USC and hand the Trojans their first season loss.
NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
North Carolina State vs. Duke Blue Devils
Saturday, October 14, 2023 – 8:00 PM EDT at Wallace Wade Stadium
Our AI Model believes the Duke Blue Devils will win 29-18 against the North Carolina State Wolfpack on Saturday. Duke is only sitting at -3.5 against the spread.
The Duke Blue Devils might be without Riley Leonard, who has a high ankle sprain. They’ll have to rely on freshman quarterback Henry Belin IV if he’s out. This season, Belin IV has thrown for 118 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. He’s also had an extra week to prepare, with Duke having a bye week last weekend.
Duke’s got a great running game, and with Duke facing a North Carolina State team that doesn’t have a great secondary, Belin IV will likely get comfortable under center as the game goes on at home.
If Leonard is available, this Duke line will rise. But I’d still trust Belin IV in this spot.
M.J. Morris Takes the Helm
On the other hand, North Carolina State has moved on from Brennan Armstrong. Instead, it’ll be M.J. Morris getting the start. Morris was erratic last weekend against Marshall. He threw for four touchdowns but also had three interceptions.
The biggest thing was that he pushed the ball down the field and made massive players. That’s something North Carolina State hasn’t had in a long time.
But with that said, he will still make mistakes, especially against a Duke secondary that has allowed only 159 yards per game in the air this season.
Take Duke -3.5.
NCAAF Pick: Duke -3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
UCLA Bruins vs. Oregon State Beavers
Saturday, October 14, 2023 – 8:00 PM EDT at Reser Stadium
The AI Model suggests UCLA and Oregon State will combine for 51 points. That’s lower than the 54 total the top sportsbooks have this game listed at.
The UCLA Bruins looked incredibly good defensively in last week’s win against Washington State. The Bruins held Washington State to 17 points, with just 11 first downs and 216 total yards of offense. Washington State typically averages over 500 yards of offense.
The Bruins have one of the best secondaries in college football. They’ve also looked tremendous rushing the passer. That’s why UCLA has only allowed 254.2 yards per game, including 189.6 yards in the air and 64.6 yards on the ground.
Oregon State is averaging nearly 450 yards per game behind D.J. Uiagalelei. He’s added 1,307 yards passing with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions, while Damien Martinez has rushed for 586 yards and three touchdowns. But scoring against UCLA is much more difficult than the previous teams Oregon State has played.
Expect a Defensive Battle
On the other hand, UCLA relies on Dante Moore under center. He’s been solid, but nothing to rave about. His QBR is 42.6, which is 100th in college football.
He’ll also have trouble throwing the football against an Oregon State team that has held opponents to 229.5 yards per game in the air. The Beavers are also very good in the secondary, despite not getting a lot of pressure on the quarterback.
This season, UCLA has allowed up to 17 points in any game this year. On the other hand, Oregon State came into the season known for its defense.
It will be a low-scoring game between these top-25-ranked Pac-12 opponents. Take the Under. The AI Model is onto something!
NCAAF Pick: Under 54 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
