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Week 9 NCAA College Football Upset Alert: Kentucky Set to Upset Tennessee

Each week throughout the college football season, OddsTrader scours the college odds board and highlights three of the biggest potential upsets for that week’s NCAAF slate. These are underdogs that will not only cover the spread but are poised to pull the outright victory.

Last week two of our three college football picks, Boston College, and Oklahoma State, not only covered as 3- and 5-point underdogs but won their games outright delivering +155 and +125 moneyline returns, respectively. Let’s check out the odds board for Week 9 and keep cashing our tickets!

Picks Summary

  • Kentucky ML (+152) 
  • Mississippi State ML (+215)
  • Duke ML (+158)

*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)


Tennessee Volunteers vs. Kentucky Wildcats

Saturday, October 28, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Kroger Field


Stat Trifecta

  • Tennessee IS 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
  • Kentucky is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home.
  • Kentucky is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games when playing as the underdog.

Tennessee had their shot at upsetting Alabama last week, and for a little while it appeared as though they would prevail, sprinting to a 13-0 first-quarter lead before taking a 20-7 advantage into halftime. But the second half belonged exclusively to the Tide as they scored 27 unanswered points to hand the Volunteers a 34-20 loss.

And while the Vols were melting like butter in a blast furnace, the Wildcats were licking their wounds on their bye week after their 38-21 home loss to Missouri.

Although neither team impressed in their last outing, the Vols will come into this one flat after squandering an ideal opportunity to defeat a conference rival and national powerhouse. On the flip side, Kentucky will be well-rested, featuring one of the best run-stop units in the nation, allowing just 95.7 yards per game which ranks them 13th in the country.

Tennessee leans heavily on their rushing attack, and with that mitigated by Kentucky’s ferocious front line, I believe we will see the Cats win this one outright in front of the fan friendlies.

NCAAF Pick: Kentucky +3½ (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

NCAAF Pick: Kentucky ML (+152) at Caesars Sportsbook


Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers

Saturday, October 28, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Jordan-Hare Stadium


Stat Trifecta

  • Mississippi State is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games played in October.
  • Auburn is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • Auburn is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against an SEC opponent

These are two plodding offenses matched up in Auburn on Saturday, with the Bulldogs averaging 26.9 points per game (78th) while the Tigers check in at 26.7 points per contest (81st). The defenses are middling with Mississippi State allowing 25.7 PPG (72nd) while Auburn is surrendering 23.9 PPG (59th).

The Bulldogs are 4-3 (2-5 ATS) while Auburn is 3-4 (2-5 ATS) and there isn’t much that separates these two underwhelming squads. But at least Mississippi State is coming off a 7-3 win over Arkansas last week while Auburn lost their fourth straight game, 28-21, to Mississippi as 6-point home dogs.

I will grant Auburn owns an edge in the rushing game, but this looks like a slow grind between two mediocre teams. I am scratching my head as to why the oddsmakers are harnessing the Tigers with a 7-point handicap against… well, just about anyone in the SEC. Grab the points with the Dawgs and watch an upset.

NCAAF Pick: Mississippi State +7 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

NCAAF Pick: Mississippi State ML (+215) at Caesars Sportsbook


Duke Blue Devils vs. Louisville Cardinals

Saturday, October 28, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium


Stat Trifecta

  • Duke is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • Duke is 7-2 SU in their last 9 games.
  • Duke is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against an ACC opponent

Duke sprinted to a 17-7 lead early in the second quarter before No. 4 Florida State roared back and claimed a 38-20 home victory and covered the 13½ point impost. It was the second time in three weeks that the Blue Devils faced a national powerhouse, with No. 11 Notre Dame being the other.

Louisville saw its unbeaten streak snapped two weeks ago when Pittsburgh handed the Cardinals a 38-21 loss despite Jack Plummer’s 350 passing yards. Last week they enjoyed their bye week as they prepared to welcome the Blue Devils to Cardinal Stadium.

Louisville’s offense will have to be razor-sharp to score on Duke’s 5th-ranked defense, allowing just 13.9 points per game, and that burden will be shouldered by Jack Plummer, who tossed two picks in the loss to Pittsburgh. I believe this will be a close contest with Duke picking up the win when it is all said and done.

NCAAF Pick: Duke +4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

NCAAF Pick: Duke ML (+158) at Caesars Sportsbook

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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