Instead of finishing the NFL’s Wild Card round with a single game on Monday, we have another doubleheader with the Steelers and Bills meeting in Buffalo in the afternoon. Given this new matchup time, we wanted to add another prop pick for that game before making our picks for Eagles-Buccaneers.
Be sure to check out the player props section on OddsTrader, and we included the top sportsbooks to make these player props for Monday’s Wild Card action.
Picks Summary
- Jaylen Warren (PIT) Over 3.5 Receptions (+140)
- D’Andre Swift (PHI) Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Jalen Hurts (PHI) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125)
- Baker Mayfield (TB) Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-115)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
Monday, January 15, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Coming into these playoffs, the Steelers have played probably their best 3-game stretch of offense since sometime in the 2020 season. The fact that it happened with Mason Rudolph at quarterback is all the more surprising, but Rudolph has played legitimately well in these games.
He has been accurate, decisive, and aggressive enough to where he’s letting his best receivers make plays for him and he has yet to throw an interception in 74 attempts. He even protected the ball well in the pouring rain in Baltimore last week when he still completed 18-of-20 passes.
By getting this game moved to Monday afternoon, the Steelers should have a little more courage to come out throwing to keep up with Josh Allen and the Bills. That doesn’t mean they will abandon the run by any means, but Rudolph’s stats deservingly got a boost from this game getting moved.
A beneficiary of this expected passing boost should be running back Jaylen Warren, who almost led the Steelers with 61 receptions this year. Only George Pickens (63) had more catches than Warren.
Since Kenny Pickett was injured and the Steelers went with backup quarterbacks in December, Warren has caught at least 4 passes in 5 straight games.
The Pick
You can just picture Rudolph wanting to be a little more conservative and not making a big mistake against a very good Buffalo defense, so checking the ball down to Warren can be smart plays.
You can also picture the Steelers getting blown out and Rudolph repeatedly dumping the ball down to Warren for cheap completions. This kind of already happened last year in Buffalo when a then-unknown Warren caught 4 passes for 39 yards in a 38-3 blowout loss in Pickett’s 1st NFL start.
We’ll trust the Steelers to throw to their favorite receiving back enough times to hit his over for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Jaylen Warren Over 3.5 Receptions (+140) at Bet365
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, January 15, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
D’Andre Swift (Philadelphia Eagles)
How does Philadelphia win this game without a dominant No. 1 receiver like A.J. Brown, who is out with a knee injury? They run the football.
We saw it in Week 3 when the Eagles won 25-11 in Tampa, the team’s only double-digit road win this season. The Eagles rushed for 201 yards that night, which is significant since Tampa has not allowed more than 156 rushing yards in any other game this season.
But when the Eagles set their mindset and offensive line to running mode, they can still run it with the best of them. D’Andre Swift had a dominant game against Tampa with 16 carries for 130 yards. That came on the heels of Swift rushing for 175 yards against Minnesota, and he hasn’t topped 100 yards in a game since.
That was certainly an early-season pop for Swift, but he has picked things up in recent weeks too. He rushed for 61 yards against the Cardinals in Week 17 before taking the final game off for playoff rest. Before that, Swift gashed the Giants for 92 yards and the Seahawks for 74 yards.
The Pick
Instead of trying to turn DeVonta Smith into a true No. 1 receiver and winning this game through the air, the Eagles need to be mindful of Jalen Hurts’ finger injury and make this a ground-and-pound game. Follow Jason Kelce and that great line to victory, and Swift is well rested and should be able to deliver over 61.5 yards in this one.
NFL Pick: D’Andre Swift Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Bet365
Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)
Who knows, this could be the last time this season we get to see the Eagles push Jalen Hurts in the end zone for another rushing touchdown. For that matter, it could be the end of the Brotherly Shove, as there have been murmurs about the NFL possibly banning the play in the future.
For all the struggles of the Eagles this year, this play has largely remained unbeaten for them. Hurts scored 15 touchdowns this year after scoring 13 times in 2022. He also scored on the ground in every playoff game last season, including 3 times in the Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs.
Did Hurts score a rushing touchdown in Tampa in Week 3? He sure did despite it being one of his quieter rushing games of the year with 10 carries for 28 yards. But all he usually needs is that last yard (or 2) to get his touchdown.
The Pick
Hurts has not scored a rushing touchdown in the last 2 games, but that says more about the team’s struggles and him leaving Week 18’s game early more than anything. If the Eagles are close enough to the goal line, he will get another score. He has scored in 11-of-17 games this year.
NFL Pick: Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125) at Bet365
Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Hurts is not the only injured quarterback who has missed some practice this week. Baker Mayfield has issues with his ribs and ankle and is listed as questionable. He is expected to tough it out and play, but things have not been pretty for the offense in the last 2 games.
Mayfield had the rib issue going into Carolina in Week 18, then he suffered a low hit and was limping around most of the game. He could barely limp over to the sideline several times after possessions, and the Buccaneers escaped that one with a 9-0 win against the worst team in the league.
Mayfield had an unimpressive game against the Eagles at home in Week 3. He only passed for 146 yards, his lowest home game by far this year. He did not lead the offense into the end zone until the 4th quarter and by then it was too little too late in the 25-11 loss.
Mayfield was also intercepted in that game. Overall, he has kept the turnovers down better than most expected him to do in replacing Tom Brady, but he has been picked off in 9-of-17 games, so a hair better than a coin flip this season.
The Pick
The pick is our pick. Look for Mayfield to throw an interception in this game as he tries to force one he shouldn’t, and maybe that is where the injuries catch up with him as he would just scramble earlier in the season when he was healthy on some of these plays.
NFL Pick: Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-115) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
