The sport of tennis is like no other in the demands it puts on its athletes for the way the sport is played. This is most emblematic in the short turnaround between the Grand Slam event of the French Open in Paris and the Grand Slam event of Wimbledon played in London. Just 3 weeks apart, these surfaces are the greatest contrast in sports.
The clay on Roland Garros in Paris is so slow it favors a defensive style played from the baseline. Grass is the fastest, lowest bouncing surface which emphasizes serve, offense and power.
With only a two to three week build up for the event, it is quite the jarring change for these top level athletes to have to switch their style of play so quickly. Who can adapt? That’s just as important as who can play. With that in mind let’s dive into the world of Wimbledon to find winning tennis picks at top-rated sportsbooks.
Top Picks:
- Taylor Fritz to Win Wimbledon (+3300)
- Ben Shelton to Win Wimbledon (+3300)
- Jelena Ostapenko to Win Wimbledon (+7000)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Men’s Side
Once again, just like the French Open, this is essentially a two-man race. This reminds me of the ’80s, when I was growing up, when it felt like Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert were in every women’s final. This is the stranglehold that Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have on the sport of tennis right now. After facing off in a classic, grueling, five set battle at the French Open, these two men are expected to meet in the final again.
Alcaraz has had greater success on grass, as a former Wimbledon champion. Alcaraz has all the tools to be successful on any surface. He has the elite athleticism, court coverage, and defensive ability to be elite on clay. He has the offense, variety, power, and touch at the net to be a monster on grass. Alcaraz is the most complete player in the sport and when he is on the top of his game he is the best in the world.
Jannik Sinner has an excellent level of consistency when he needs to play defense and can be lethal with his forehand. He has a strong enough serve to get easy holds here at Wimbledon and should be a tough out for anyone besides Carlos. Sinner will definitely be smarting from the way in which he lost the French Open. That is a key question for our handicap of Sinner in this tournament.
How will he respond to the most agonizing loss of his career? Will Sinner bounce back with more determination and mental toughness? Or, will this loss cause him to question himself and will he go into a tailspin for a couple of months before he is able to recover from that stingingly brutal loss. How Jannik Sinner plays in this tournament will be a huge referendum on what we can expect from Sinner’s career. The true greats are able to bounce back from devastating losses. Other players take months to recover. Which type of player will Jannik Sinner be?
Two Top Players
When it comes to the two top players, because of the odds you are going to have to choose one. There is no value in playing both. I will once again choose Carlos Alcaraz. Alcaraz is just one step above Jannik Sinner and his ability to play offense will translate well on the grass. Although Sinner has an absolute cannon of a forehand, Alcaraz has more overall aggression and is much better at the net. Between the two top picks, I prefer Carlos Alcaraz.
When it comes to betting on tennis, we can never ignore a long shot and there’s two long shots that I like in this tournament. Both come in with odds of 33 to 1. The first is Taylor Fritz who just won the tournament in Halle, Germany. Fritz is a serve plus one type of player. Serve plus one basically means that if you have a huge serve, you get a weak return, and the plus one is usually a forehand to put the point away. Fritz should use the style to hold his serve with ease in the early rounds of the tournament. Of course, later on he will be tested, but when Fritz is on he can defeat anyone. At 33 to 1, Taylor Fritz is worth a long shot play.
The other serve plus one specialist that I will be looking at for 33 to 1 is Ben Shelton. Shelton has all the tools to be a top player and he is still working on his consistency and strategies. Shelton can look brilliant a times but is prone to bouts of inconsistency where he gives away too many points with unforced errors. He can also be a bit tactically rigid and sometimes fails to make adjustments when Plan A isn’t going well. However, Shelton has a bomb of a serve and a huge forehand which plays well here on the quick surface at Wimbledon. Once again, we’ll have another long shot playing Ben Shelton at 33 to 1.
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Women’s Side
The brilliant men’s final overshadowed the fact that we had an excellent final in the French Open on the women’s side as well. Coco Gauff was able to overcome an early deficit to win a three-set victory over Aryna Sabalenka. Sabalenka, who is number one in the world, is once again the favorite. Elena Rybakina is second in the odds. Coco Gauff is third and Iga Swiatek is 4th. Sabalenka was understandably devastated by her loss at the French Open and like Sinner, it will be interesting to see how she recovers.
Elena Rybakina has the style of game to be successful at Wimbledon. However, with issues swirling around her coaching situation, and her lack of high quality play lately, it is tough to back her at this price. Although Rybakina has the skill set to be a champion here, at her current form, I would need longer odds in order to place this wager. While Elena Rybakina winning Wimbledon wouldn’t be the craziest outcome, the current price does not offer value.
Iga Swiatek has always struggled on grass and once again her price is too low. I understand that it can be tempting to get one of the world’s best players at these odds. However, Iga Swiatek has always struggled on grass and we have seen nothing to suggest that this season will be any different.
Top Seeds in Trouble?
Like Rybakina, Iga has struggled with psychological issues as of late and her struggles are definitely mental. Until she breaks out of this funk that she is in. I would not back her to overcome all of her struggles on her very worst surface.Iga Swiatek will probably make a bounce back on the American swing, but this grass season will probably be tough for her. Once again the price is too low and I would stay away from Iga Swiatek.
Coco Gauff is interesting because she is coming off of one of the best performances of her career at the win in the French Open. However, her game is much more suited to clay. Coco Gauff has consistency issues with the two most important factors of Wimbledon, serve, and forehand. So Coco Gauff is in a great place mentally and if anyone is going to overcome their previous struggles on the surface I would choose Gauff in this form. However, once again the price is too low.
There are some intriguing long shots on the woman’s side. Jessica Pegula is 25 to 1. Amanda Anisimova is 40 to 1. The mercurial Jelena Ostapenko comes in at 70 to 1. At 70 to 1, Ostapenko is worth a long shot price that she could get hot and blow everybody off the court, especially with concerns around the top players at this current time.
The long shots I am considering are Pegula and Ostapenko. Pegula is another one who could play well and pull out this tournament. A lot of the top players have issues swirling about them and could be vulnerable. That’s why for this tournament I’m going for long shots only on the women’s side. Give me Jessica Pegula and Jelena Ostapenko.
Best Bets
- Jessica Pegula to win Wimbledon (+2500) at Bet365
- Jelena Ostapenko to win Wimbledon (+7000) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
