It’s the first game up on a huge New Year’s Day college football betting card, and there’s a promise of points for bettors in the ReliaQuest Bowl even without Heisman winner Jayden Daniels being on hand.
Top Pick
- Over 55 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
LSU Tigers vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Monday, January 01, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
The odds are good that your first sports bet of 2024 will be on college football, and that makes the ReliaQuest Bowl battle between the LSU Tigers and Wisconsin Badgers a very chalky play to be that first wager.
Transfers & Opt-Outs Mean New Depth Charts
Speaking of chalk, the spread for the contest would be even chalkier if not for the decision by LSU’s Jayden Daniels to opt out in advance of the 2024 NFL Draft. Even with the Heisman Trophy winner’s exclusion, the Tigers are 10-point favorites at Caesars Sportsbook, where the scoreboard target is double-nickels.
Daniels is by far the biggest name on the transfer portal/opt-out list, but LSU’s Brian Kelly is having to plug in replacements at several other slots on the Tigers’ depth chart.
Many of those spots are on defense where corners Duce Chestnut and Laterrance Welch are out. The Tigers will also be breaking in new 2nd-string defensive linemen.
Luke Fickel and Wisconsin will be doing without linebacker Jordan Turner, third on the Badgers with 61 tackles. The receiver corps is where the Badgers are going to really be green, starting with an undisclosed injury that will keep Bryson Green (25 rec, 375 yds) sidelined.
In addition, 1st-string TE Hayden Rucci has opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft while Skyler Bell, second with 38 catches, and Chimere Dike, third with 328 yards receiving, have both entered the portal.
Series History – 1st Meeting in 7 Years
The Badgers and Tigers are meeting for the fifth time, and it’s their first bowl matchup. Louisiana State holds a 3-1 lead in the series, which dates to the early-1970s, but Wisconsin has current bragging rights after a solid upset in Week 1 of the 2016 campaign.
The Badgers were getting nearly two touchdowns against then-No. 5 LSU, and kicked a late field goal for the 16-14 final that stayed about two touchdowns under the total.
This is Wisconsin’s first SEC opponent since the 2016 contest against LSU, and first SEC matchup in a bowl game since beating Auburn in the 2015 Outback. The Tigers trounced Purdue in last year’s Citrus Bowl, their first Big Ten opponent since the 2016 clash with Wisconsin.
Ho-Hum Season in Madison
Fickel’s club was a middling club statistically in 2023, and a bit offensively-challenged, to be frank. The Badgers’ high-water mark on the scoreboard was a pair of 38-point postings in wins over Buffalo and Purdue, and averaged just over 16 points a game against Power 5 opponents.
In fact, the best way to play the NCAAF odds in Wisconsin games was to take the ‘under,’ with eight of the contests coming up short.
Some of that ‘under’ was due to their own offense, and some to a defense that surrendered less than 17 PPG in conference play. It should be noted, however, that the Badgers didn’t face an offense nearly as dynamic as the Tigers.
LSU Offense – ‘Over’ & Out
Just how dynamic LSU’s offense will be without Daniels remains to be seen. One thing is for certain: Wisconsin’s defense doesn’t need to be concerned with Garrett Nussmeier scrambling out of the pocket.
Nussmeier, a sophomore from Lake Charles, will be Daniels’ replacement, and it’s almost an impossible act to follow. Daniels threw for 40 TD and ran for more than 1,100 yards to lead the top offense in the country, and one that went 11-1 in the totals column at top sportsbooks.
Bowl Histories & Betting Trends
This is LSU’s third consecutive bowl trip, and 56th overall with a 30-24-1 record in the collegiate postseason. The Tigers have won and covered four of their last five bowl games, all five sailing past the totals.
Louisiana State is making its third bowl appearance in Tampa. They lost to Syracuse in the 1989 event when it was called the Hall of Fame Bowl, and beat Iowa in 2014 when the game was sponsored by Outback.
Wisconsin is bowling for a 22nd consecutive year, and playing in its 35th bowl contest with a 19-15 record to date. The Badgers have won eight of their last 10 bowls, covering six of them while totals ran 4-5-1 O/U/P.
In addition to the 2015 Outback win over Auburn, the Badgers have been in Tampa for a January game four other times. They were 1-3 when it was sponsored by Outback, all four of those games against SEC foes, and beat Duke in the 1995 Hall of Fame Bowl.
The Pick
Mother Nature isn’t expected to be a factor, with the weatherman calling for a few clouds, the upper-60s and a light breeze five days out before kickoff. The forecast for a free pick dares not screw with LSU’s strong ‘over’ lean this season and in recent bowls.
NCAAF Pick: Over 55 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
