Caitlin Clark has taken the basketball world by storm and ignited intense interest in the WNBA with her excellent marksmanship and skilled passing. Tonight, Clark and the Indiana Fever will take on the Atlanta Dream in Atlanta. The Dream defeated the Fever 91-90 on Tuesday night in Indiana.
Can the Fever return the favor and get a win on Atlanta’s home court? Let’s take a look at what to expect from Caitlin Clark tonight and make winning WNBA player prop picks.
Picks Summary
- Caitlin Clark to Score Over 22.5 Points (-110)
- Caitlin Clark 3-Pointers Made Over 3.5 (-155)
*All odds from BetMGM (check our BetMGM Review)
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream
Thursday, May 22, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at State Farm Arena
Same Plan, New Game
The Atlanta Dream have some excellent players to try and stop Caitlin Clark. Allisha Gray was the main defender. Gray was aggressive; she often began her intense defense before Clark even passed the half court line. As well as a full court press, Gray was face guarding her and using physicality to try and slow Clark down. Gray encouraged Clark to go left as the focus of her defense was primarily stopping Clark from going right.
When Allisha Gray was not guarding Clark, Ryne Howard took the assignment. This was an impressive performance from Howard, who was also carrying the load on the offensive end. Howard finished second on the team with 20 points, including the free throw that gave the Dream the final lead with 9 seconds left.
Since the Dream escaped Indianapolis with a victory, it is safe to assume they will use the same defensive strategy against Clark. Once again, Allisha Gray will be her primary defender.
After scoring 20 points in the season opener, Clark had an impressive 27 points against the Dream. Clark helped bring the Fever back after they were down 14 at one point in the third quarter. Clark’s 3-point shooting was key as she made back-to-back three pointers to cut the lead to four with seven minutes to go.
Clark had 10 assists in her first game and 11 assists in her second game.
Clark had 11 three-point attempts in her most recent game, making five three pointers. Clark is 9-19 from three point range this season, and she is shooting an impressive 47.4% from the 3-point line.
Clark Should Feast With Full Minutes
Let’s take a look at Clark’s props as posted by BetMGM. The first one is attractive. Caitlin Clark to score over 22.5 points is -110. Clark had 27 in the loss, and she would have gone over this number in the season opener except for the fact that it was such a blowout, she did not get as much playing time. I do not expect to see a blowout tonight, so Clark should play her full complement of minutes.
Clark’s assists line is set at over 9.5. This seems like a bet we should make, right? Clark has gone over this number in both games. The problem is that BetMGM has put a higher tax on this prop as the line is set at -140. At -140, you need to be correct on this prop play 59% of the time to be profitable. So while this does seem like a good wager, it feels more accurately priced than the total points line.
The rebound prop is an interesting proposition. The number is set at over 5.5 with a price of -130. In the last game against the Dream, Clark would not have gone over this prop, only grabbing five rebounds. In the season opener, she grabbed 10 rebounds even with abbreviated playing time. There’s no way I’m playing an under here, but the over seems a little iffy. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Atlanta Dream were able to keep Clark off the boards again. So while the rebounding prop is tempting; in the end it’s a pass.
Trust the Usage, Not Just the Percentage
The final prop is for 3-pointers made. This is an interesting conundrum when it comes to the price point. The over 3.5 is -155. Clark put up 11 three-pointers attempts in the last game against the Dream. When we are evaluating a three-point prop, attempts are more valuable information than three pointers made. I know that sounds a bit counterintuitive however, the more attempts you have the more likely you are to go over on a prop. Whenever I am considering a 3-point prop, I usually look at the average attempts rather than makes. Usage is key when evaluating player props.
However, at -155, the implied probability goes up to 61%. Although that doesn’t seem like much, this could be the difference between having a profitable season and a break even season. We must be wary when we’re laying this much juice. Clark had eight attempts in the opening game in abbreviated usage. If we can assume that she’s going to get over 9 attempts every night, and she’s already shooting 47% from the field, even at a hefty price tag, this prop looks profitable.
The Picks
When betting on this game, I’m going to keep it simple. I’m going to stay away from the peripherals and just stick to betting over on Caitlin Clark’s points and over on Caitlin Clark’s three pointers made. The prices for rebounding and assists are correct, and there’s no edge to be had there. So take it easy, place these bets, and enjoy watching Caitlin Clark put on another masterful performance tonight.
WNBA Pick: Caitlin Clark to Score Over 22.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM
WNBA Pick: Caitlin Clark 3-Pointers Made Over 3.5 (-155) at BetMGM
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
