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One of the most common mistakes baseball bettors at the top sportsbooks make as a new season starts is letting their emotions take over pragmatic thinking. Just like in the NFL or college football, they are so exuberant about a new season, they get caught up in the moment and bet with their heart and not their head.
Here is some sports betting advice to protect yourself from entering May in a deep hole you could be digging out all season, instead of starting on the right foot early in the MLB season.
Two to Three Weeks of Limited Baseball Wagering
Every year, baseball heads into May with one or two division leaders that NOBODY thought would be possible. Yet, it happens like the sun rising in the East, a team picked 4th or 5th in their division jumps out to a fast start, playing with confidence and over their abilities.
The potential benefit of this is these clubs are routinely underdogs, which curtails your risk. For at least two weeks, seek to find underdogs that have the potential to win games based on their current play, who might be facing a favorite that has gotten off to a bumbling start.
It is recommended to limit plays to one wager a day until every team has played two series both home and away to get their bearings on a new season. From this point, no more than two plays, because there is no worse feeling as a baseball bettor being in a deep hole with five months left in the regular season on a daily sport.
Why should you do this? Let us explain.
The Standings Don’t Mean Much in April
In the big picture, especially if you intend to bet on MLB futures, a win or a loss in April counts the same as it does in September because there are 162 contests. Teams can overcome a sluggish start or others that are playing over their head will eventually find their true benchmark.
This can lead to not thinking objectively about particular squads and becoming enamored with current form rather than overall talent. Granted, we do have surprise teams each season and some pop up early, but as a general rule, making betting decisions on how a team is playing at the moment to start the year, based on a variety of circumstances can turn on one outcome.
Keep a Fresh Perspective on All the Teams
If you did some light research or not much at all for betting baseball, make sure to keep in mind preconceived notions that might not be up to date in terms of real-time outcomes.
Let’s say you have wagered on a specific team and had good to outstanding results for four/five years. Last season this team slipped a little, not in a big way, yet noticeably enough their win total was a few games below expectations.
What is likely occurring is this team is getting older and most of the core group has its prime years in the rearview mirror. Because this outfit has stuffed your wagering account handsomely over the past seasons, there is a natural tendency to give that club the benefit of the doubt. There might not be anything wrong with that thinking, however, blind loyalty can drain bankrolls. It is far better to be objective, understand what this team has to offer today and follow their progress, just like another club.
Comprehending Statistical Performances for the Full Season
Whether you are placing baseball bets on games or daily prop bets, it is imperative to understand the numbers.
Every team will have hot and cold streaks just like any given player. A team might come out of the gate with a lineup that is hitting 1 through 9 and averaging six runs a contest. That can be a time to ride a club just like any other point during the season. Just remember to be wary of other aspects that can come with this.
Maybe in the early going a pitcher is 3-0 playing for such a unit and that is intriguing. Yet, when looking at this hurler’s numbers, his ERA is over 5.00, he’s walking as many as he’s striking out and he’s tossing over 90 pitches in five innings. The only reason this pitcher is undefeated is his offense is giving him leads and he’s getting by. Once the bats cool, he could quickly be exposed, which could leave you on the hook for a loss.
Additionally, a team’s batting average could swing 30 points in a given game, thus, follow the numbers closely day after day to give yourself the best chance to win or not lose.
