SELECT SCORE:
At Odds Trader, we highlight five fundamental golf rules you must consider when handicapping a Major Championship and break them down to show how to use them and increase your betting edge at top-rated sportsbooks.
Form – Course and Current
The most important requirements for your golf selections have been either strong current form or good course form, or ideally, a strong balance of both in their portfolio.
To find this, use pgatour.com and they have all the golfers’ records. Use their current season form and then look back at previous renewals of the tournament you are researching for whether they have an affinity for the course or major championship you are researching.
Player Statistics
There are many occasions a golfer is new to a particular course or relatively new having only played previously once or twice. It can be difficult to determine their quantifiable chances, so use player statistics to help see the players’ current well-being.
To help establish whether a player will be a suitable course fit, previous renewals at the event will give you a profile of player types that do well. From this information, you can establish what strengths translate well to this particular track. Use that knowledge to find similar sorts of players who are strong in similar statistic categories.
Again, using pgatour.com you have the perfect source to collate player statistics and they rank the categories separately.
The Main Categories
- Shots Gained Off the Tee: This takes “length off the Tee” combined with “driving accuracy”. For shorter strategic tests, accuracy has more importance, and vice versa when there is no premium on accuracy.
- Strokes Gained Approaching the Green: This can be broken down further to distance ranges, such as 150-175 yards, which brings deeper analysis when necessary.
- Greens in Regulation Percentage: This enables an overall view of how well a player is performing from tee to green and, in fact, there is a “strokes gained tee to green” to utilize.
- Scrambling Percentage: Players’ proficiency around the green can be hugely useful, especially on tracks like Augusta National for the Masters Tournament, where most winners have been ranked in the top 25.
- Strokes Gained Putting: The putting category can be hugely influential for major championships because, apart from the Masters Tournament, the others have a constantly changing rota of courses in use. Augusta National is Bentgrass for the Masters and be sure to check out the variant of green, as this can be broken down further within the PGA Tour’s putting stats.
Different External Dynamics To Consider
Weather Forecast
It is always important to check the weather forecast for the week; it could be that there is a weather bias pre-cut on the opening two days or that there is a settled forecast of good or bad weather.
The bad weather forecast can be particularly telling with my notes telling me players who play well in rainy weather, such as Rickie Fowler and Keegan Bradley.
Player Injuries
Keep an eye on injury updates, the last thing you want is an injury cloud over a player that you’re keen on, especially if they have back issues and there is a poor cold weather forecast in store
Player Personal Circumstances
There may be external personal circumstances that are either positive or negative for a player’s chances.
The more research you do the better, as it may be they won or played well at the course as a junior or amateur. It also may be they have fond sentimental memories like Max Homa has for Riviera Country Club, where his father took him as a boy to watch.
Some professionals have been known to get engaged in a course that brings sentimental value. There is also a “nappy factor” to consider for new fathers, which historically is a positive.
Which Betting Market To Choose To Bet
Now, you are getting ready to choose the market you want to bet in!
- Outright: The most popular one for the winner of the major championship.
- Place: This is broken down into Top 5, Top 10, Top 20 and on some occasions top-40.
- Match Bets: 72-hole match bets between two named players
- Round Bets: First-round leader is the most popular, but there are also two and three-ball bets for each group in each round.
Nationality or Speciality Bets: Top American, Top Debutant, Top left-hander, Top European and Top Senior are examples of the main speciality bets but take a deeper look at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review), who have a great choice.
Bankroll Management: Odds and Value
Set aside an amount of expendable income to use for golf betting enjoyment. After using the methods described, you then need to appraise whether the odds are value.
For example, if you have appraised that Scottie Scheffler is +300 to win this year’s Masters Tournament and you can bet him at +600, that would be a +EV profitable bet long-term.
