SELECT SCORE:
Tennis is a great sport to wager on because it runs for 11 months and at certain points of the year can be on 24 hours a day. Taking the time to learn the players can be profitable with the number of opportunities you have to find wagers. What are the best strategies in order for you to be profitable when betting against WTA odds?
Form
Form is a major factor in a tennis handicap. Form means how well a player is currently playing. Even top 5 players go through streaks and weeks where they don’t play at their top level. When handicapping a match it is important to look at recent results on the same surface and properly assessing the level of competition. People will rank things slightly differently, but I prefer a hard-fought win over top-level competition over demolishing weaker lower ranked players. Keep an eye on form and as you keep tabs on each player’s form, it is easier to rate each victory and loss.
When you are handicapping a match on OddsTrader, you can analyze the recent results of both players from a betting perspective and look at the total score, the total games handicap, and the number of games played (the total) in their most recent matches. Example below:
Surface
Certain players excel on certain surfaces. For example, Naomi Osaka is currently the premier hard court player in the world, but she struggles on both grass and clay. It presents opportunities for savvy bettors to go against her, where the casual handicapper will see her name and number one ranking and assume she will win in a lot of tough matchups on a surface where she doesn’t feel comfortable.
The entry point to tennis betting does take a lot of learning because there are also clay-court specialists. These players dominate the clay swing. They will always play clay tournaments over larger or more prestigious tournaments on other surfaces.
The advantage bettor will have to be aware of all the specialists in order to bet them against big-name players uncomfortable on clay and conversely fade them against almost any player on other surfaces. Tennis handicapping does take a lot of study as you will need to learn the players, their strengths and weaknesses, and these can wildly vary depending on the surface the matches played on.
Individual Matchups
You can create a tennis model. Combined with a proper tape study a model can be very important. You will be using hold/break percentages, sorting by surface, and level of competition. Yet still, a model alone is not enough to beat the books. This is where your tape study comes in.
When watching matches we should be taking notes of the strengths and weaknesses of each player. How aggressive are they in attacking their opponent’s 2nd serve? How do they respond when dealing with the same stroke matchups? For example, do they usually come out on top during backhand to backhand rallies? Do they often try to redirect in order to avoid a stroke such as their backhand?? Do they rely on one side simply for winners i.e. Do they only hit for winners off the forehand or are they able to hit winners off both sides?
So as you get notes on each player, and you see the strengths and weaknesses, you can create a preview of what you expect the match to look like. If I know a player struggles with unforced errors they are going to struggle even more against the consistent player who is not gonna give them free points. If I know a player isn’t aggressive even against weaker 2nd serves it will not be attacked as much as usual.
So as you build a library of tape study observations you can begin to make your own keys to victory for each match. Combine this with a simple model that will give you hold/break percentages and how well they do on each surface against the same level of opponents, you now have the proper tools to be a winning tennis bettor. So, that is why you should look for your ATP odds at OddsTrader.
Situation
Tennis travel players travel and compete on multiple continents, sometimes all in the same month. Oftentimes the top player can get dispatched in a seemingly huge upset in the 1st round yet the avid observer will not be surprised due to the amount of tennis played the previous week and the travel situation which forced the better player to come in exhausted. The jet lag can do the work for you.
Pay attention to the player’s schedule and the amount of tennis they played in the week before and the amount of travel that they have to contend with. Top players also play smaller tournaments worth less ranking points for an appearance fee. In those cases, oftentimes the high-ranking player is there for their appearance fee, and not too worried about their actual performance that week.
Be aware of travel situations and motivation before placing a tennis bet. By using form, statistics, tape study, individual matchups, and situation we can isolate spots where we believe we have an advantage over the books and place +EV tennis bets. It takes some work to start but once you have done the preliminary tasks the opportunities are abundant.
