SELECT SCORE:
The advanced hype for the NFL Draft and the release of the upcoming NFL schedules is crazy these days. If you watch ESPN or tune in to local/national radio shows, you could get the impression of “Why play the games?” because many “personalities” act like they know exactly how the upcoming season will play out. (Note: They don’t.)
Before we answer the title of this article, it is important to understand the various aspects of how those involved break down the schedules.
Players
From J.J. Watts’s X/Twitter account: Here’s what players look at:
- First Game
- Bye Week
- Thursday Night Game
- Any other games that may disrupt routine/recovery (International, MNF, Thanksgiving, etc.)
- Possible weather games (Buffalo in December, Miami in Sept, etc.)
Coaches
NFL coaches will break the season down into segments. This helps the players and coaches focus on short-term goals instead of a long season.
- Dividing 17 games by four (one section has five games)
- Four away games in five starts
- Four games in 19 days (Sunday, Sunday, Sunday and Thursday)
Media and Team Fans
They have to decide who should be favored right away and determine a team’s record that becomes a benchmark. (Right or Wrong)
Football Bettors
Most ‘Fan Team’ bettors will overreact in either direction, either drinking the team’s Kool-Aid or being extremely negative. Too often this leads to bad bets.
What Sportsbooks and Sharp Players Are Thinking
The oddsmakers at top sportsbooks have one mission, don’t overreact to anything. Stay on the original course and let the betting markets determine if the numbers should go up or down.
Of course, the books will look more closely at teams the public loves, they will go along with public perception and normal betting patterns they understand extremely well. Otherwise, it is business as usual, completely understanding that a new NFL season is three months from starting and it is better to be strategically smart.
Sharper football bettors will look at each team’s schedule and compare it to their season win total and see if it matches up with their thought process for season wins. If there is a sharp contrast or two, they might be inclined to make a wager, just only on a limited bet, not foolishly wagering on something that would tie up their money for half a year.
Why Wouldn’t Bettors Make a Bigger Bet?
One of the biggest mistakes NFL bettors make every year is basing last year’s results on a new season.
One team could have a Top 5 toughest schedule before the season and when it is all said and done, it was a Top 8 easiest slate.
Two things to always think of before placing a future wager after surmising a schedule, the NFL is a constantly evolving league.
In 2002, the NFL went to eight four-team divisions. The upside was more competitiveness within the divisions. Since these divisions were formulated, there has been just over 50% turnover from year to year who the division champs are. One year a squad wins their division with a 14-3 record, and the next season is swamped with injuries and barely finds a way to finish 10-7. This occurs all the time. If you want to make a futures wager, figure out what clubs that didn’t win their division last season could do so this year and make a bet on the division winner.
Along the same topic of discussion, in the past 21 seasons, 19 times a team has gone from last to first to win their division. We know the NFL seeks parity and continual change and if you want to win bets, find that one team that is poised to go from – Worst to First – that is a good wager to win the division, or at least beat a season win total.
Though there has not been proof of a true betting edge, one aspect to look for is rest differentials that might have a particular squad in a better scheduling spot.
As always, be smart, not foolish.
