When it comes to buying half points in the NFL, some swear by doing so. Then, some believe it’s the wrong thing to do. Who is right when toying with the NFL odds? Let’s discuss it.
Like most things in life, it depends on your perspective. As we have seen on cable news channels, one individual can comment on a topic and the two people that watched it will come away with completely different opinions on what they heard.
When it comes to buying points in the NFL, that can and is often true for football bettors.
On top of that, nowadays apps like OddsTrader offer the everyday bettor access to a variety of tools that will help them better determine situations like this. The fact is, long term, you should never buy points.
Even on key numbers like a three-point or a seven-point spread.
This is because, even if you are right 50 percent of the time when the outcome doesn’t land, you’re paying extra juice for that.
The Case for Buying Points on Key Numbers
However, we are not ignorant to the fact that people live their lives how they want to. We know we should not eat or drink too much and shouldn’t smoke, yet millions do this daily.
If you are the type of person that views football betting as a zero-sum game and your mission is to win every bet, despite knowing full well that is impossible, buying points could make sense for you. This certainly doesn’t make a bad person or a bad bettor against the betting odds, it’s just your style.
The standard cost of a half-point is 10 cents. Say the line on Tampa Bay was -6 (-110) and you wanted extra protection and bought the number down to -5.5. That would cost you $12 to win $10 (or -120) compared to $11 to win $10.
If you are going to buy points, though the cost or juice is more, the benefit is useful. When reviewing the betting numbers at Oddstrader.com, it’s important to remember that between 23 and 24 percent of all NFL outcomes land on a score with a three-point or seven-point difference.
Buying a half-point on these key numbers is a tad more expensive. This will change your cost from -110 to -125 or even as high as -135, depending on the sportsbooks. While that is a rather hefty price to pay, if you are interested in turning a loss into a Push or a Push into a winner, that could be the route for you to go.
If your mindset is one game at a time, this strategy can fit your thinking.
The Case Against
On the other hand, the football bettor who takes a long-term approach when making NFL picks and carefully goes over his bankroll to account for every dollar will avoid this practice. That bettor has the understanding that it’s not how much you win but how much you keep.
For this person and most experienced bettors, buying points is a costly proposition.
If you were to bet only -110 odds, to break even, you’d have to win 52.8 percent of your bets. If you start buying half points or even full points, you alter your odds, especially taking seven points to -6.5/+7.5.
In that scenario, you’d have to hit approximately 60% on these kinds of wagers to show a profit. Over time, this is like paying fees on ATMs, where you lose money without realizing it.
When looking at football numbers at OddsTrader, it is wise to realize that winning, losing and having a Push is part of the deal when betting.
There are always exceptions like in any aspect of life and on occasion, even the smartest of football bettors will buy a half-point, convinced the oddsmaker’s number is so accurate, that they want an edge based on their numbers. Nobody can be faulted for that.
However, just like investing, it is best to take the panoramic road.
Keep your money and avoid frivolous activities. Buying points is for the impulsive investor.