The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for tonight’s college basketball action, and two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in for today’s player props:
- Clemson vs. Virginia
- Virginia Tech vs. Louisville
Picks Summary
- PJ Hall Over 14.5 Points (-115) at Bet365
- Hunter Tyson Over 12.5 Points (-115) at Bet365
- Armaan Franklin Under 13.5 Points (-110) at Bet365
- Grant Basile Over 18.5 Points (-115) at Bet365
Clemson Tigers vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville
Versatile Frontcourt Players vs. Virginia
Virginia’s defense struggles against bigs who can shoot the three. The most recent example is Tar Heels power forward Pete Nance, who scored a team-high 22 points in his team’s win on Saturday over Virginia.
Notre Dame’s Nate Laszewski
But there are many more examples, which illustrate my point. Two Saturdays ago, when Notre Dame nearly upset Virginia as double-digit underdogs on the road, Fighting Irish center Nate Laszewski scored a team-high 18 points.
His scoring output is interesting because he had plenty of three-point shooting opportunities but generally failed to take advantage of them.
Despite being known foremost as a three-point shooter, he used his versatility as a high-scoring big to amass as many points as he did in what was a low-scoring game.
Boston College’s Quinten Post
Another example of a versatile frontcourt player to thrive against Virginia is Quinten Post of Boston College.
When Virginia and Boston College met for the first time, Post single-handedly kept his team in the game for a while. He finished with 24 points.
Post did struggle in the rematch because he could not find his shooting stroke.
Clemson’s Frontcourt Players
Clemson features two frontcourt starters who are versatile in the way that Nance and Post are. Plus, unlike the most recent version of Post, they are primed to shoot well given their current form.
These two starters for Clemson are center PJ Hall and power forward Hunter Tyson.
Hall is shooting 39.7% from deep and Tyson is converting 42.3% of his three-point opportunities. Most recently, Hall shot 2-for-3 from deep in his last game, while Tyson has converted eight of his 16 three-point attempts in his past two games combined.
Both Hall and Tyson will contribute to Clemson’s most recent high-scoring tendencies.
The Picks
While Virginia’s defense enjoys a positive reputation and the Cavs are known for playing at a slow pace, which limits the number of baskets that they or their opponent will attempt, the over/under for both players seems low to me.
Hall repeatedly blows by his point total over/under and Tyson himself has proven capable lately of approaching 30 points.
Therefore, include the “over” for both players in your NCAAB Picks.
NCAAB Pick: PJ Hall Over 14.5 Points (-115) at Bet365
NCAAB Pick: Hunter Tyson Over 12.5 Points (-115) at Bet365
Armaan Franklin’s Confidence
Virginia forward Armaan Franklin is known primarily for his three-point shooting. While the number of his two- and three-point attempts is about even, his efficiency has been greatest from behind the arc.
Earlier in the season, he made his three-point conversion rate on the season solid. But Franklin has fallen off, much like most of his teammates. Currently, he is enduring a 4-for-15 run from behind the arc.
Since his best games tend to include strong three-point shooting from him, we must expect a bad game from him.
Perhaps more worrisome than his ongoing issues with three-point efficiency is his apparent lack of confidence. In his team’s last game, he attempted only two three-pointers.
The Pick
If I were a Franklin supporter, I would much rather see him go 1-for-7 from deep than 1-for-2, because the former stat line shows that he at least still believes that he can make shots.
Right now, Franklin is not only cold but also lost.
NCAAB Pick: Armaan Franklin Under 13.5 Points (-110) at Bet365
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Louisville Cardinals
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at KFC Yum! Center
Top-Scorer Grant Basile
Hokies center Grant Basile is just the player to exploit Louisville’s lack of rim protection and shot-blocking ability and its vulnerability to opposing three-point shooting.
Basile is a versatile player who is repeatedly at least one of his team’s top-scoring options. He has skill as a scorer inside but also range from behind the arc.
Because Louisville struggles to limit the production of opposing centers and because Basile can be productive in so many ways, we should expect him to contribute significantly to his team’s endeavor to prolong the struggles of Louisville’s defense.
NCAAB Pick: Grant Basile Over 18.5 Points (-115) at Bet365
