Picks Summary
- Kevin McCullar Under 6.5 Total Rebounds (-110) at FanDuel
- Anthony Black Over 5.5 Total Rebounds (+108) at FanDuel
- Gradey Dick Over 14.5 Points Scored (-106) at FanDuel
It’s been a crazy first few days of March Madness – but not so crazy in the West Region, at least not as we go to press. The better seed won each of their first six games in the First Round by at least eight points. Chalk reigned supreme.
Speaking of chalk, the top seed in the West will be in Second Round action this Saturday. The No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks face the No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks in Des Moines; the Jayhawks are 3-point favorites on the NCAAB odds, but we’ll be looking at those tasty player props for our latest college basketball picks.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Saturday, March 18, 2023 – 05:15 PM EDT at Wells Fargo Arena
Who Is Kevin McCullar?
That would be Kansas senior guard Kevin McCullar; the early overseas odds have him at 6.5 Total Rebounds for Saturday’s contest, with the vig at -110. We’re recommending the Under at this price or better.
The Jayhawks are a relatively tall team that does good work in the paint, and McCullar is a relatively tall guard at 6-foot-6. His season average of 7.1 rebounds per game is obviously higher than Saturday’s total, but McCullar will have issues reaching that target against Arkansas.
That’s because the Razorbacks only attempt 15.9 3-pointers per game, which ranks No. 349 out of the 363 teams in Division I. Missed threes are the kind of rebounds that are more likely to be scooped up by McCullar out on the perimeter.
If that weren’t enough of a challenge, McCullar will also have to deal with someone who’s even taller: 6-foot-7 freshman guard Anthony Black, who has put up 5.1 boards per game this year. More on him in a moment.
And to put the cherry on top, the Hogs rank eighth in the nation in blocks at 5.2 per game, so some of those wayward Kansas shots that would have become rebound opportunities for McCullar (albeit closer to the paint in general) will get swatted into the band section instead.
NCAAB Pick: Kevin McCullar Under 6.5 Total Rebounds (-110) at FanDuel
Who Is Anthony Black?
He’s the subject of our second NCAAB player prop – and this time, we’re picking Black to go Over 5.5 Total Rebounds, with the juice at +118 on the overseas lines.
Black won’t have quite as much trouble reaching this total as McCullar will. Kansas doesn’t shoot the ball as frequently from downtown as they have in years past, but they still hoist 20.3 trey attempts per game (No. 246), and they only connect 34.6% of the time (No. 162).
The pace these two teams play at will help us more with this pick than the first. The Razorbacks rank No. 48 in college according to Ken Pomeroy’s Adjusted Tempo metric, fitting in 69.9 possessions per game; the Jayhawks rank No. 69 at 69.5 possessions per game.
Of course, more possessions mean more shot attempts and more rebound opportunities. And with Kansas only laying three points, there’s a good chance they’ll need overtime to sort this one out.
NCAAB Pick: Anthony Black Over 5.5 Total Rebounds (+108) at FanDuel
You Probably Know Gradey Dick
For our last pick, we turn our attention to the star of the show: Kansas freshman guard Gradey Dick. He’s the highest-ranked prospect on this roster at No. 16 on the RSCI Top 100, and he’s already their best player, according to his plus-8.1 Box Plus/Minus at Sports Reference.
Dick is also the second-highest scorer on the Jayhawks at 14.3 points per game, and suitably enough, he’s looking at a total of 14.5 Points Scored on the overseas college basketball lines, with the Over priced at -106.
We’ve already mentioned the quick pace for both these teams; that will help Dick get over the hump as well as Black. It won’t be easy, though. Dick is one of the few long-range threats for Kansas, attempting 5.8 threes per game and making 40.4% of them, but as you know, the Razorbacks have length at the perimeter with Black.
There’s more of that where he came from. Junior guard Ricky Council (6-foot-6) and freshman Nick Smith (6-foot-5) are also in their four-guard starting frontcourt, and that’s usually enough of a threat to keep opponents from going ham behind the arc.
On the season, Arkansas ranks No. 11 in fewest trey attempts allowed at 16.9 per game, and No. 26 in percentage allowed at 30.4%. But they haven’t faced anyone quite like Dick just yet. Bet accordingly.
NCAAB Pick: Gradey Dick Over 14.5 Points Scored (-106) at FanDuel
