The NFL’s Conference Championship Sunday figures to be a good one with both games having a small spread under 3 points, a rarity for this round. These are marquee matchups between the 49ers-Eagles and Bengals-Chiefs.
We are presenting our favorite prop picks that we found using the OddsTrader app for the Conference Championship Games in the NFL.
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 29, 2023 – 03:00 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field
Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)
- Under 221.5 Passing Yards
The closer this game gets, the more nervous you feel about trusting the rookie quarterback, sensational as he has been, on the road against the No. 1 pass defense with 70 sacks.
This line is particularly interesting since the Eagles have allowed just two out of 18 starting quarterbacks to pass for over 221.5 yards this year. Dak Prescott had 347 yards in Week 16, thanks in part to completing a 50-yard bomb on a third-and-30, and Kyler Murray threw for 250 yards way back in Week 5 in the closest game the Eagles played during their 8-0 start.
Kirk Cousins just missed the mark with 221 yards back in Week 2, but this Philadelphia defense has held 10 quarterbacks under 200 yards this year, including Aaron Rodgers (140 before an injury), Ryan Tannehill (141), and Trevor Lawrence (174).
They have not played the greatest lineup of quarterbacks, but here comes Purdy after he passed for 214 yards against Dallas last week. It was the fourth time in seven starts that Purdy was under 221.5 passing yards.
The Pick
Let’s trust the Philadelphia defense to make Mr. Irrelevant and his draft status look very relevant in this one.
NFL Prop Pick: Brock Purdy Under 221.5 Passing Yards (-110) at Bet365
Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)
- Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
The 49ers have a great run defense that has not allowed any individual to rush for 70 yards this season. Last year in Week 2, Jalen Hurts rushed for 82 yards and his team’s only touchdown in a 17-11 loss.
This year, Hurts is a much better passer and an MVP finalist, but he also is still a very productive rusher. Hurts has seven games where he has rushed for over 50 yards this year, and most of them are tighter games where he has to come through for his team like the 17-16 comeback win over the Colts (86 yards) or when he had 61 yards and two touchdowns in a 20-17 win over Arizona.
The Pick
In the games where Hurts barely ran (under 25 yards), the Eagles led by three scores or more much of the way in easy wins. No need to risk it.
But this is his first NFC Championship Game, and his instincts should take over against a very good defense that will look to take away the traditional running game with Miles Sanders. Those scrambles by Hurts can be deadly and add up quickly, especially on third downs.
Trust Hurts’ legs to do damage in this one.
NFL Prop Pick: Jalen Hurts Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Bet365
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 29, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Joe Mixon (Cincinnati Bengals)
- Under 58.5 Rushing Yards
The Bengals have had an interesting season as their No. 29-ranked running game has rarely stepped up for them outside of three games. One was when Joe Mixon scored five touchdowns and rushed for 153 yards against Carolina, but the other two sure were timely.
The second was when Mixon was out against the Chiefs, and Samaje Perine stepped up with a 100-yard game. The third was last week in Buffalo when Mixon had his second 100-yard game of the season with 105 yards.
You might think the Bengals will run it well again this week, but it really seemed like the Bills were not prepared for the snow and cold weather last week, which is a shocking thing to say about Buffalo. But the Bills looked like a soft-dome team in that one.
We should not forget that the Bengals lost three offensive linemen in recent weeks, and while they looked good last week, the snow helped with the footing. The Bills had no pressure or rush.
The Chiefs have their ups and downs against the run, but they did stuff Josh Jacobs in Week 18 and held the rushing champion to 45 yards. They allowed 62 yards to Travis Etienne last week, but he had 19 on one carry and only got 10 carries.
The Pick
Mixon has been held under 58.5 rushing yards in 9-of-16 games this season. He has been held under 40 yards in 3-of-5 games coming into Sunday, so there is not even a late-season surge here. Just good timing to run well on Buffalo.
This pick might be going against the grain, but let’s count on the Kansas City run defense to step up and shut down the No. 29 run offense and put the game more on Joe Burrow’s passing.
If he is throwing anything like he was in Week 13, the Bengals will be content with that. But the Chiefs will not let Mixon beat them in this game.
NFL Prop Pick: Joe Mixon Under 58.5 Rushing Yards (-111) at BetMGM
Kadarius Toney (Kansas City Chiefs)
- Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
The Chiefs are trying to get wide receiver Mecole Hardman back for this game after missing a few months, but they still have Kadarius Toney, who they traded for from the Giants earlier this season.
Toney could be the gadget player they need this week to run some interesting plays to make use of his speed and Patrick Mahomes’ lack of mobility with the high-ankle sprain.
Let’s just spitball something here. Two years ago in the 2020 playoffs against the Browns, Mahomes had a nerve injury and was knocked out of the game, and he also had a toe injury. He played the next week in the title game against Buffalo, but there was concern about his movement for that game.
The Chiefs called a quick-passing game and relied on a lot of big YAC plays to Hardman and Tyreek Hill and Mahomes was barely pressured or touched in the game, a 38-24 win by the Chiefs.
Maybe they draw up something similar this week, and Toney, who did not play in Week 13 in Cincinnati, can be a big part of that, playing the Mecole Hardman role if Hardman can still not go.
The Pick
Toney was a big target last week with 7 targets, 5 catches, and 36 receiving yards. It is not great yardage, but the opportunities were there, and they can be there again to hit his over if they commit to getting the ball out of Mahomes’ hands faster.
The Bengals have done the best job at consistently making Mahomes hold the ball, and Mahomes has had an average time to throw over 3.0 seconds in each of his last five losses going back to 2021. That includes all three games against the Bengals.
So, in a weird way, this injury could help the Chiefs try something different this week, and it may be the answer to dealing with Mahomes staying in the pocket more.
NFL Prop Pick: Kadarius Toney Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
