The NFL’s Wild Card Weekend features two games on Saturday, three games on Sunday, and even a Monday night game. We are looking at our favorite prop picks that we found using the OddsTrader app for the wild card games in the NFL.
Saturday, January 14, 2023 – 04:30 PM EST at Levi’s Stadium
Tyler Lockett (Seattle Seahawks)
- Over 60.5 Receiving Yards
Tyler Lockett may never be viewed as an elite receiver, but he sure does play like one with his route running and balance along the boundary lines. He has four straight 1,000-yard seasons with at least eight touchdown catches in each.
The 49ers have been a tough opponent for him as he only averages 50.3 yards per game in 15 career meetings with them. But in Week 2 this year, Lockett had 107 yards, his first 100-yard game against San Francisco, and this is one of the best defenses yet for the 49ers.
Lockett had 68 yards in the rematch in Week 15. He has surpassed 60.5 yards in four of his last five games against the 49ers, and he has also done that in four of his last five playoff games.
For as great as the 49ers are on defense, they definitely shut down the run better than the pass. The 49ers have not allowed a 70-yard rusher this year, and Josh Jacobs, with the help of overtime, is the only player to crack 60 rushing yards.
But the 49ers have let 19 other players hit 62 receiving yards, not counting Lockett doing it twice. Davante Adams (153) and Tyreek Hill (146) went way above that number, but Lockett just needs 61 to hit another over.
Look for the Seahawks to be trailing and in need of passes to a trustworthy receiver. Count on Lockett to deliver for your NFL picks.
NFL Prop Pick: Tyler Lockett Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
Saturday, January 14, 2023 – 08:15 PM EST at TIAA Bank Stadium
Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)
- Over 14.5 Rushing Yards
Trevor Lawrence is certainly a wild card in his first playoff game as we don’t know what to expect from the former No. 1 overall pick. He was a national champion at Clemson and is not unfamiliar with big games, but his performance against the Titans last week at home with the AFC South on the line left something to be desired. But the Titans are a tough division opponent.
Lawrence had great success against the Chargers in Week 3, but that was a long time ago. He has not been lighting it up in the passing game the last three weeks, and he may need to produce more points if Justin Herbert brings his A game.
But this is a 50/50 gamble as Lawrence has gone over 14.5 rushing yards in 8-of-17 games this year and in 19-of-34 games (55.9%) in his career. Los Angeles was not one of those games (3 carries for 7 yards) this year.
But in the playoffs, sometimes you just have to leave everything on the field and take chances. Lawrence had 24 scrambles in the regular season and his 9.1 yards per scramble was the fourth-highest average in the league. He also can get yards on designed runs as we saw against the Jets when Lawrence had 51 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Let’s trust Lawrence to use his instincts and take off in this game to hit his rushing over. The Chargers have been vulnerable to some big runs from Patrick Mahomes in recent years, and Lawrence should make full use of his abilities in this game. There is no next week if he fails.
NFL Prop Pick: Trevor Lawrence Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-109) at BetRivers
Sunday, January 15, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at Highmark Stadium
Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins)
- Under 61.5 Receiving Yards
The Dolphins brought in Tyreek Hill exactly for big games like this. In the last two postseasons, he has destroyed the Bills for 322 receiving yards.
But that was in Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback. Hill comes to Buffalo this week without Tua Tagovailoa (concussion). He likely won’t even have a veteran like Teddy Bridgewater to get him the ball.
No, Hill is at the mercy of catching passes from rookie Skylar Thompson, who has to face Buffalo’s defense on the road after he averaged 5.1 yards per pass attempt in the regular season. Just look at the difference in efficiency on targets to Hill among the three Miami quarterbacks this year:
- Tagovailoa (126 attempts): 69.8% complete, 10.3 yards per attempt, 108.5 passer rating
- Bridgewater (24 attempts): 75.0% complete, 12.9 yards per attempt, 116.7 passer rating
- Thompson (20 attempts): 65.0% complete, 5.1 yards per attempt, 37.9 passer rating
It may only be 20 attempts, but the connection has not worked out so far. Rookie quarterbacks also usually tend to struggle even more in the playoffs, and it’s not like Thompson looked like one of the good ones in the regular season. He struggled to put up 9 points against the Jets at home last week.
The Bills held Hill to 33 yards in the first game with Tua this year. They held him to 20 and 63 yards in regular-season games before with Mahomes as his quarterback. It’s really only the two playoff games in the last two years where he has exploded on this defense.
With Tre’Davious White back at corner and the Thompson situation for Miami, let’s go with Hill to hit his under in receiving this week.
NFL Prop Pick: Tyreek Hill Under 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
Sunday, January 15, 2023 – 04:40 PM EST at U.S. Bank Stadium
Richie James (New York Giants)
- Over 47.5 Receiving Yards
You could always take the over on Daniel Jones’ passing yards if you do not trust his individual receivers, but you should trust them in this matchup. Not only have they been playing well lately, but the Vikings allow more catches (250) and receiving yards (3,266) to wide receivers than any other defense in 2022.
This game is indoors, so you don’t have to worry about the January weather in Minnesota, a smart decision by the builders there. The Giants had two of their best games on offense all season in the last two games where the starters played.
But it was Richie James who had a season-high 90 yards in Minnesota in Week 16. He followed that up with 76 yards against the Colts the following week, so he is coming off his two biggest receiving games of the season.
We know the Vikings can score too, so this could be another shootout and it should be as likely as any game this weekend to go down to the wire with the way these teams have played all year.
Trust James to hit his over for an offense that is moving in the right direction under rookie head coach Brian Daboll.
NFL Prop Pick: Richie James Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
Sunday, January 15, 2023 – 08:15 PM EST at Paycor Stadium
Joe Mixon (Cincinnati Bengals)
- Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts
It is making a statement about the caliber of the game when you land on the running back of the 9.5-point home favorite to hit his over in carries as the best prop pick. But that is where we are with the Ravens not having Lamar Jackson at quarterback, and these teams just played an ugly game with 28 possessions last week.
Things should look a bit better this week if the Ravens are getting Tyler Huntley, Mark Andrews, and J.K. Dobbins back on the field for the offense, but this unit has not scored more than 17 points since Jackson went down. If you saw his tweet about the degree of his knee injury, then you know his season is essentially over. This is what the Ravens have to roll with in this game, and the spread feels appropriate.
But the Bengals have bigger fish to fry and cannot get stuck on this game. You can already say they may have refused to show their hand in Week 18 knowing this would be the rematch a week later, but it wasn’t pretty despite the 27-16 win.
Joe Mixon only had 11 carries for 27 yards last week, but he was much more effective in Week 5 in Baltimore with 14 carries for 78 yards. Mixon has only gone over 14.5 carries in 6-of-14 games this year, but most of the times he didn’t were on the road.
The Bengals may have been saving him for this playoff run. During last year’s Super Bowl run, Mixon logged 17, 14, 21, and 15 carries. Look for a similar usage here as the Bengals look to win another home playoff game.
This should not be the kind of game where Joe Burrow needs to throw it 45-plus times.
NFL Prop Pick: Joe Mixon Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-106) at Unibet