EPL Matchday 18 Best Bets: Nketiah Can Help Gunners to all Three Points

Arsenal’s English striker Eddie Nketiah claps fans after the UEFA Europa League Group A football match between Arsenal and FC Zurich at The Arsenal Stadium in London, on November 3, 2022. (Photo by Glyn KIRK / AFP)

We are wrapping up 2022 with some EPL bets this weekend at Ottstrader as Arsenal travel to the south coast to take on Roberto De Zerbe’s Brighton team whilst Antonio Contes’s Tottenham Hotspurs play host to Aston Villa.  

Arsenal FC vs. Brighton and Hove Albion  

Saturday, December 31, 2022 – 12:30 PM EST at Amex Stadium 


It wasn’t post-World Cup blues for either of these teams last time out as Brighton claimed a comfortable 3-1 win over south coast rivals Southampton whilst the Gunners beat their London rivals, West Ham, by the same scoreline with all three starting strikers finding the back of the net on the day.  

Brighton sits in seventh place in the EPL table but their home form has been their Achilles heel picking up just 11 points from a possible 21, although this 50% strike rate is poor for a team who are that high up the league table.  

Arsenal was top of the Premier League on Christmas day for the first time in 15 years, and despite missing striker Gabriel Jesus for several months through injury, they can have confidence in young Edward Nketiah who has found success this season in front of goals having scored for the first time in the Premier League this season last time out.  

The Gunners come into this game having kept 6 clean sheets in their previous 8 EPL road games. The same number of clean sheets they had in the entirety of last season when playing away.  

Pick and Prediction  

We can’t look past the -110 Premier League betting odds on offer here for 3+ match goals between these two teams, we expected these odds to be around -120 for over 2.5 match goals. The Gunners have seen 10 of their 15 games go over 2.5 goals thus far this season.  

Interestingly 4 of the first 5 games between these teams at the Amex Stadium had seen over 2.5 goals scored but the previous two have produced zero and one match goals, let’s hope to buck that trend in this EPL fixture.  

Both teams like to play attacking football so we can’t see why this would be a tight low scoring affair this time around. Arsenal to win 2-1.  

Premier League Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (-110) at FanDuel  

Aston Villa vs. Tottenham Hotspurs 

Monday, January 1, 2023 – 09:00 AM EST, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium 


Tottenham did what Tottenham does best last time out and had to come back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 with Brentford. Tottenham has picked up 14 points from losing positions thus far this season (the most in the Premier League).  

Spurs have now conceded first in their previous six Premier League games, the last time any team in the top English division conceded first for more than six consecutive games was 1988. Tottenham is currently fourth in the Premier League, three points adrift of Newcastle in third place.  

Aston Villa has improved under Unai Emery but suffered a 3-1 defeat last time out to Liverpool, which leaves them in 12th place. Villas’s road form hasn’t been spectacular either, picking up just 8 points from a possible 24.  

Interestingly Unai Emery has taken charge of 54 Premier League games (including his time at Arsenal) and has yet to see a game finish goalless. Villa has performed badly during their recent trips to the capital having lost their previous 5 games and have not kept a clean sheet for 13.  

Pick and Prediction  

Despite Tottenham’s poor record scoring first, we believe this will buck that trend here on home soil against Aston Villa. One would imagine Antonio Conte will have his team prepped to come out and score first here to get rid of that bad omen.  

We are betting Tottenham to win here at -135, it’s a lot of juice to lay but they have won 6 of 8 games on home soil thus far this season and the only losses came against Liverpool and Newcastle. Aston Villa shouldn’t pose as much of a threat, especially without World Cup-winning goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez still resting from his nation’s triumph.  

Premier League Pick: Tottenham Win (-135) at FanDuel  

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