Finding an Edge in the First Team to Score Prop

Randy Arozarena #56 of the Tampa Bay Rays hits a double in the fifth inning. Julio Aguilar/Getty Images/AFP

Betting baseball is an indispensable way to create interest in America’s Pastime and make a few bucks while you’re at it. But sides and totals are not the only wagers to be made, as prop bets are becoming increasingly popular. Let’s talk about this one prop in particular and the MLB odds that go with it.

Starting Pitching Matters

Call me Captain Obvious but let’s start with the starting pitching matchup. The better the starter the less likely it is that he will be touched early. However, let’s also consider the lineups each hurler will be facing. That’s a big deal because the top of the order is comprised of the best on-base hitters which lead to runs scored. If we have a slightly better pitcher facing a more ferocious lineup then my money is on the team with the better hitters even though the other club might boast a slightly better pitcher.

Shades of grey, that’s what we are talking about here folks. How much better is one pitcher than another and how much better is one lineup over another? This is not a black and white construct so don’t base your prop bet on solely one thing. Starting pitching is a critical element of this wager but it is not the be-all-end-all. We will discuss a few more important elements to this prop bet below, including taking advantage of the most advantageous MLB odds.

Check the Lineups

This is not a bet to make early because you never know what the starting lineups will be until they’re announced. Don’t guess and don’t send it in without doing your homework. Even though one pitcher might have a better ERA than his counter-number, the most important pieces of the puzzle to consider are how have they been pitching lately and what have they done against these respective lineups recently.

Just remember, numbers like ERA, WHIP, SO/G, BOB/G, etc. are a culmination of their entire body of work throughout the season. But what you should be focusing on are their most recent performances. That tells the tale because a pitcher could have been slightly injured earlier in the season leading to bloated numbers that don’t accurately illustrate his form at the time of the game. Conversely, he may be ailing now but was spitting bullets earlier in the season which masks his recent ineptitude.

The same can be said for the hitters in the lineups. Find out if a top-of-the-order hitter is coming off of the IL and may need a few at-bats under his belt to get started which would obviously bode well for the opposite team. You also need to consider whether or not the pitchers in question are more likely to surrender runs early and settle down later or throw

smoke right out of the gate and tire late. Different pitchers have different habits and the only way you will know all of this is to do your research.

Don’t just bet the favorite because all the other squares are doing it. Laying the heavy lumber will ultimately chew up your bankroll so try to make an objective case for the underdog so that you can get the vig instead of paying it. Over the long haul, this will help you because most bettor’s natural inclination is to bet the favorite and the over, which carries over to the props as well.

Choose Your Sportsbook Wisely

Getting the best MLB odds, whether on a prop bet, a side, or a total is critical because there is no good reason to pay more for something than you have to. If you had two gas stations located across the street from each other and one charged 15 cents per gallon more, why would you fill up there? Gas is gas and there’s no inherent value in buying Mobile over Gulf, right?

And while funding multiple accounts so that you can get the best prices available is another sharp move, unlike the oil companies that churn out a generic product, not all sportsbooks are created equal. Make sure that the books you do business with will pay you straight away when you request a withdrawal. The online sportsbooks featured right here, at OddsTrader, are the best in the industry and will give you your money on time and in a professional manner. So be sharp, do your homework, and play with only the best books!

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