Friday’s Best Computer Pick
- Stars-Golden Knights Under 5.5 (-114) at SBK
Using our OddsTrader NHL computer picks, we were able to place tonight’s bets based on the information generated.
A repeat of the 2020 Western Conference finals, the Vegas Golden Knights will be hoping to advance to the finals this time, having lost the 2020 series 4-1.
Having gone 0-3 against the Stars this season, Vegas will certainly have an uphill battle in this series, with goaltender issues as well as the fact they are only 3-9 in their previous twelve meetings.
Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Friday, May 19, 2023 – 08:30 PM EDT at T-Mobile Arena
Dallas Stars Fit and Healthy
A Lot of teams’ playoff success comes down to teams staying fit and healthy, which is exactly what the Dallas Stars have managed to do, with no players on the injury list ahead of this Western Conference final.
However, their opponents have a total of 2 players out for definite and 3 questionable at the time of writing.
Vegas Injury Concerns
With the Golden Knights having a total of 3 goaltenders on the injury list, they have done incredibly well to get this far with so many goaltender issues this season. At the time of writing, Laurent Brossoit is questionable to play, with Logan Thompson and Robin Lehner out for sure.
If Brossoit isn’t fit to play, the starting goaltender will likely be Adam Hill. Hill has done well when called upon this season, allowing 2.20 goals against and a 93% save percentage this post-season.
Hill posted a 16-7-1 record allowing 2.50 goals and had a save percentage of 91% during the regular season.
Tight Series Expected
These two teams are long-hardened veterans when it comes to going deep into the playoffs in recent years, with the Golden Knights making the Western Conference finals in 50% of the previous six seasons.
The Dallas Stars are in their second Western Conference final in three years, and this time around they will be hoping to make their 2nd final in three seasons, having beaten the Golden Knights 4-1 in the 2020 Western Conference final.
All four of the Stars’ wins during that 2020 series were decided by a one-goal margin. We expect this to be another tight series between the Stars and Golden Knights.
Dallas Stars
- The total has gone under in 4 of Dallas’ last 6 games when playing on the road against Vegas.
- Dallas are 12-5 in their last 17 games against an opponent in the Western Conference.
- Dallas are 4-1 in their last 5 games against Vegas.
Vegas Golden Knights
- Vegas are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
- The total has gone under in 5 of Vegas’ last 6 games against Dallas.
- Vegas are 10-3 in their last 13 games against an opponent in the Western Conference.
Dallas Better Series Winner Bet
Despite the fact our computer likes the Vegas Golden Knights to win on home ice tonight, and we tend to agree. We equally believe the better bet to win this series is the Dallas Stars at +120 NHL odds.
We cannot condone betting this Golden Knights team at -140 to win the series, even if they end up sweeping, there’s absolutely no value here. They have already struggled against the Stars in recent meetings, plus they have a worse team than the Stars at the moment, with some key players out injured as well as their recent goaltending injury crisis.
Look For Total to Stay Under
These teams were two of the best defensive teams during the regular season, having had the 3rd and 11th best goals against record, combing for only 5.1 goals per game combined.
During the playoffs, their combined totals have increased a little to 6.08, but this still ranks them as the 2nd and 3rd best in the playoffs, excluding teams already knocked out who have played substantially less games, which wouldn’t be an accurate representation.
We believe this game has a 3-2 written all over it, and potentially even a 3-1 or 4-0 type of scoreline, these teams rarely go over when they face each other having seen 6+ goals in just 3 of their previous 15 matchups.
Our computer likes the total to stay under and so do we, and if you’re feeling extra brave, the under 4.5 goal line is available to bet at +170 with the top rated sportsbooks.
Predicted Score: Dallas Stars 2 – Vegas Golden Knights 3
NHL Pick: Under 5.5 (-114) at SBK
