For bettors of all kinds, one question that has been asked forever, should I back a team that is playing great or horribly and for how long? Let’s answer that question.
Two sports that are particularly prone to long winning and losing streaks are baseball and hockey. From a betting perspective, it’s not lost that those sports are mostly wagered on moneylines, not point spreads. That’s not to say NBA teams don’t have long streaks or find that clubs will not have records 20-3 or 3-20 SU, however, unless they have a matching point spread or are very close to those records, they don’t hold as much value against online betting sites.
Though opinions may vary, with baseball a daily betting sport, when a team is playing either extremely well or poorly, it makes sense to at the very least look at those teams daily. From there, determine if the number or moneyline makes sense and proceed.
Here are suggestions and ideas about wagering against the betting odds in baseball, find your comfort level and understand the risks.
There is Nothing Wrong with Betting Streaks
Betting on winning or losing streaks is never a bad idea, you just need to know when to hop in. Too many bettors are skittish and place wagers once either streak has reached five or six games and often are immediately burned. Our advice on those, after four contests, over two series (this is important because different competition could lead to different results.) is the best time, however, you still could lose.
A better strategy is looking at winning or losing stretches. Say a major league team has won or lost eight of nine or maybe even seven of nine. That’s the equivalent of three series and as long as all nine games were not at home, it could pay to drop in on this team and “ride the tide”.
Here you make a normal bet. If you win the first one, proceed to the next conflict unless the moneyline is over -200, where you could lose more than double on what you just won.
If the streak reaches three, even if you lose one, you would still have a profit and the squad you are tailing has won or lost 11 of 12 (or 10 of 12) at this juncture and probably deserves another look, especially if you find a favorable situation where you think your chances of winning are 75 percent or higher.
Though it doesn’t occur frequently, if the streak goes off on a 19-4 or 20-5 period, you are well-positioned to pick up a fair amount of cash just following and not having to do a lot of number crunching.
Just as long as you understand the downside.
To easily see the recent performance of a team, go to the MLB odds page at OddsTrader and click any event. From there you can access pertinent score and spread data on each team’s latest matchups, plus their head-to-head history.
All Streaks Come at a Price
One aspect you have to understand when backing a team’s form is the oddsmakers at sportsbooks are also paying close attention.
This season, Baltimore and Arizona are horrific and unwatchable for their fans. When they are losing almost every day, the books are going to keep raising the prices on moneylines and run lines, wanting to chase you away or make it uncomfortable for you to bet. Suffering a -220 or higher loss means you have to win three straight just to get in the positive and if you suffered two such setbacks even in six games, you are still in the red for that period, despite having won four of six.
This is why you must always track your wins and losses and have a complete understanding of what you can absorb in losing and monitoring your results.
When everything is rosy, it’s easy. When it is harder, having control of your financial situation is tantamount.
In closing, betting hot periods is a good strategy. Knowing when to step away is just as important. You as the baseball bettor should always be alert to take advantage of an opportunity, as that can help you build that bankroll.