MLB Pick: Luis Castillo Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-118) at BetMGM
The Oakland A’s likely will have a very long night at the plate Monday when they visit Luis Castillo and the Seattle Mariners. We have two MLB player prop picks from that game and one more for Monday, via the OddsTrader prop tool.
Pick summary
- A’s-Mariners: Luis Castillo Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-118)
- A-s Mariners: Luis Castillo To Earn A Win (-129)
- A’s-Mariners: Kirk Muller Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-149)
- Dodgers-Braves: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
- Dodgers-Braves: Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+110)
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Monday, May 22, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
This is the late game on the 12-game Monday schedule and is available to stream via ESPN+. Look, this isn’t rocket science: Whenever the A’s are playing on the road against a good starting pitcher, you should back that pitcher on most positive props and fade whoever is on the mound for Oakland.
The team is that bad at 10-38 overall and 5-20 on the road. The Athletics enter on a four-game losing streak and with an overall run differential of minus-168. No one else is worth more than minus-70.
From Houston to Seattle
Over the weekend in being swept in Houston, the A’s totaled just four runs. Now they face Mariners ace Luis Castillo (2-2, 3.31 ERA). His 135 strikeouts are the second most in franchise history within a pitcher’s first 20 Mariners starts, trailing only Robbie Ray (136) – who is now out for the season.
- Castillo’s first 5 starts: 4-1 team record, 1.52 ERA, 0 HR, .170/.214/.217 (.431 OPS) opposing slash line
- Castillo’s last 4 starts: 0-4 team record, 5.73 ERA, 6 HR, .278/.323/.600 (.923 OPS) opposing slash line
Castillo’s ERA this month is 6.35 with a 0-2 record but he has faced very tough lineups in the Red Sox, Rangers and Astros. He had been dominant before this past mini-slump and will be on a bit of extra rest, last pitching on May 16.
The last time he faced Oakland was on Oct. 1, 2022, at T-Mobile Park when he allowed one run on two hits over six innings in a victory. I expect something similar here.
Amateur Hour
While Castillo’s struggles are just a blip in my mind, it’s pretty clear that 24-year-old Kyle Muller of Oakland should not yet be in the majors as the lefty is 1-3 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in nine starts.
Based on a minimum of 40.0 innings pitched, he has the highest opponents’ batting average (.349) and on-base percentage (.419) in the majors among all pitchers, and the highest ERA, second-highest OPS (.950) and eighth highest slugging percentage (.531).
Fringe Starter
Muller is 0-1 with a 5.70 ERA and .880 opponents OPS in five starts at home compared to 1-2 with a 10.31 ERA and 1.041 OPS in four starts on the road. Last year in three starts, his ERA was 8.03 with Atlanta.
At this point, the one-time top Braves prospect clearly is what he is, and that’s a fringe major leaguer at the back end of the bullpen at best. This is Muller’s first career start vs. Seattle.
MLB Pick: Castillo Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-118) at BetMGM
MLB Pick: Castillo To Earn A Win (-129) at Caesars Sportsbook
MLB Pick: Muller Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-149) at BetMGM
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, May 22, 2023 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
This series might have a bit of a playoff feel as the Braves are the betting favorites to win the NL pennant and the Dodgers are second. It’s also the return of former Braves fan-favorite Freddie Freeman to Atlanta. He left after helping lead the team to the World Series title in 2021.
Freeman never wanted to leave and there were many tears shed in his 2022 return. The former NL MVP says it might be a bit different tonight.
Special Memories
“A little bit different. I am looking forward to it, I had so many special times there. Obviously, being a World Series champion with the Atlanta Braves, I have so many special memories. I can’t wait to see some of my old friends again. I am looking forward to it, probably not going to be as many tears this time around, but I am looking forward to it but it’ll be a little bit different this time,” Freeman said.
The Picks
We do like a motivated Freeman for at least two total bases tonight as he’s scorching-hot right now in batting .461 during an 11-game hitting streak with three homers, five doubles, one triple, 14 RBIs and 10 runs scored during the streak and has hit safely in all but two games in May.
Atlanta is starting veteran Charlie Morton (5-3, 2.85). Freeman is 8-for-15 with two doubles and two homers career off him. We’ll add Mookie Betts to cross home plate as he’s 11-for-34 with two doubles, a homer and six walks off Morton. It’s a very hot night in Atlanta so there should be a lot of runs scored.
MLB Pick: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) at Bet365
MLB Pick: Mookie Betts Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+110) at BetMGM
