While there were three NFL games on Thanksgiving, there are no byes in Week 12, so we still have a loaded 12-game slate to enjoy this Sunday.
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We have rounded up five of our favorite player prop picks for Week 12 in the NFL.
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Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Bank of America Stadium
Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos)
- Over 217.5 Passing Yards
Our first top pick of Week 12 is everyone’s favorite 32nd-ranked scoring offense led by Russell Wilson. But the beauty of the prop pick is that we are not concerned with Denver’s incredible struggles to score 17 points or win games this season.
We just want some yards to hit an over, and for all of Wilson’s struggles, he has reliably gone over 217.5 passing yards this year. In fact, he has done it 7-of-9 games played for Denver.
The first time he didn’t was against the 49ers, an elite defense that was playing at a ridiculous level in Week 3 when Wilson passed for a season-low 184 yards. The only other time was in Los Angeles against the Chargers in Week 6 on a Monday night. Despite Wilson lighting it up in the first quarter, his injury affected him and he only finished with 188 yards.
But in every other game, Wilson was able to throw for at least 219 yards. He had 247 yards at home against the Raiders last week despite not getting the ball in overtime.
Carolina’s defense is not terrible against the pass, but it also is not elite like San Francisco’s. With the Broncos continuing to lose running backs either to injury or release, they are going to have to rely on Wilson to have any success in Carolina. He should be able to throw for over 217.5 yards again.
NFL Prop Pick: Russell Wilson Passing Yards Over 217.5 (-115) at BetRivers
Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at FedExField
Taylor Heinicke (Washington Commanders)
- Over 212.5 Passing Yards
With Taylor Heinicke, it usually comes down to pressure. When he is comfortable, he can reliably throw for a fair number of yards. Under a lot of pressure, you probably are not going to get a big day from him.
Fortunately, Atlanta has been a good opponent for him. The Falcons have allowed Heinicke to throw for 274 and 290 yards in two career meetings. The 290 came last season with Washington when Heinicke also threw three touchdowns for the first time in his career.
Numbers Don’t Lie
- When Heinicke’s pressure rate is above 23%, he has gone over 212.5 passing yards in 1-of-12 starts.
- When Heinicke’s pressure rate is below 23%, he has gone over 212.5 passing yards in 10-of-10 starts.
The 2022 Falcons have an abysmal pressure rate of 11.2%, the worst in the league according to Pro Football Reference. If you think this trend holds, then Heinicke should be a great pick to go over and play one of his best games this week now that he is gaining confidence as the team’s starter.
But it really is about the matchup and the Falcons just stink at getting to the quarterback.
NFL Prop Pick: Taylor Heinicke Over 212.5 Passing Yards (-110) at Bet365
Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at FirstEnergy Stadium
Nick Chubb (Cleveland Browns)
- Over 74.5 Rushing Yards
Nick Chubb is coming off the worst rushing game of his NFL career after the Bills impressively held him to 19 yards on 14 carries last week. It is the first time Chubb was under 2.0 yards per carry in any game where he had more than three carries. The Browns got one of Jacoby Brissett’s most prolific passing games with over 300 yards to move the offense, but Chubb was a non-factor in a way we are not used to seeing.
With the dud, Chubb has fallen 87 yards behind Derrick Henry to fourth place in the rushing leader list this season. It may be difficult to capture his first rushing title now, which was one of the few things the Browns (3-7) were still playing for at this point.
Bounce Back Spot
But Chubb should bounce back at home against a Tampa Bay defense that is not as great as it was in recent years against the run. The Bucs are only 15th in rushing yards allowed and 18th in yards per carry. They have allowed just five rushing touchdowns, which ranks as third-best in the league, but we are more interested in the yards here.
The Bucs were able to shut down Seattle rookie Kenneth Walker in Munich, but Chubb in Cleveland is a different beast. Chubb has rushed for at least 87 yards in 7-of-10 games this season. In the games where he was held under 75 yards, the Browns allowed over 30 points and were 0-3, often playing from behind and abandoning the run.
This Tampa Bay team has scored more than 22 points in just one game all season. This is not the Tampa team we saw in Tom Brady’s first two seasons that could score at will in some games. This should be a four-quarter game.
Chubb has not been held under 80 rushing yards in three straight games in the same season since the first three games of his career in 2018 when he played a grand total of 12 snaps as a backup. He will find a way to hit his over this week.
NFL Prop Pick: Nick Chubb Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 04:05 PM EST at Lumen Field
Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders)
- Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Heaping praise on Derek Carr is usually when he falls apart in the next game, but Carr is coming off his finest moment of the season last week. He became the first 300-yard passer against Denver’s top-ranked defense, winning the game in overtime with a game-winning touchdown pass to Davante Adams.
Carr finished with a season-high 307 yards and logged his seventh game with multiple touchdown passes in 10 games with Josh McDaniels as his head coach. For all the struggles with this team, Carr is hitting 70% of the time on over 1.5 passing touchdowns with Adams leading the way there.
Five of Carr’s seven games with multiple touchdown passes have also come on the road this year.
In just the last month, the Seattle defense has already allowed Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Tom Brady to throw multiple touchdown passes. Some may still take all those quarterbacks over Carr, but just based on play in 2022, he’s in that tier. Brady’s game with two touchdown passes against Seattle was just his second such game in 2022. Jared Goff also had four touchdown passes against Seattle earlier this season.
We’ll trust Carr just enough for him to hit his over-in passing touchdowns for the eighth time this year.
NFL Prop Pick: Derek Carr Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120) at BetMGM
Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at Levi’s Stadium
Jimmy Garoppolo (San Francisco 49ers)
- Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Don’t look now but Jimmy Garoppolo is starting to post the numbers we are used to seeing from him in San Francisco, but with a career-low interception rate (1.5%) through Week 11.
If Garoppolo can keep down the mistakes and keep getting the ball to his great playmakers, then the 49ers are going to be close to another Super Bowl appearance.
Multiplying the Production
Garoppolo has passed for multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games, including a four-touchdown night in Mexico against Arizona. Garoppolo has four games in his career with four touchdown passes, and three of them are against the Cardinals.
The other was in New Orleans in 2019, a game that largely decided the No. 1 seed for the 49ers and was as fine as any game he has ever had. Garoppolo likely won’t throw four touchdowns again this week, but he is at home with more talent around him while the Saints are significantly worse on defense this year.
We also know the Saints play worse away from the Superdome. Look for Garoppolo to get all the receiving talent (Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, etc.) involved and to throw multiple touchdowns again in what should be an easy win for the 49ers.
NFL Prop Pick: Jimmy Garoppolo Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-119) at Caesars Sportsbook