Have you ever sat through an entire NFL overtime hoping neither team would score? That’s exactly what happened for us last week when the Washington Commanders and New York Giants went into their extra frame tied at 20-20, and with us featuring Under 40.5 for our Week 13 NFL Best Bets.
Miracle of miracles, that’s the way the game ended. And our other NFL picks cashed in, too, leaving us at 27-11-1 on the season heading into Week 14. Let’s keep this money train rolling if we can.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, December 11, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Ford Field
We begin in Detroit Rock City, where two profitable Over teams from the NFC North are about to butt heads – so of course we’re putting the Under in our football picks.
The Vikings: Putting the “Mid” in Midwest
As you probably know by now (since you’re a smart cookie who pays attention to these things), the Vikings aren’t nearly as good as their 10-2 record (6-5-1 ATS) would suggest. They’ve won nine straight games by single digits, posting a plus-10 point differential that reeks of mediocrity.
The advanced stats bear this out: Minnesota ranks No. 18 in both offensive and defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders. And their “special” teams check in at No. 20, as do the Vikings as a team. That’s seven spots back of the very unfortunate Lions at No. 13 overall (No. 9 offense, No. 19 defense, No. 9 special teams).
We don’t have quite the same value on Detroit as 2.5-point home faves as we do on the Under. Yes, the Lions have the Over at 8-4 this year, and the Vikings at 7-5, but Minnesota’s offense isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be. Plus, RB Dalvin Cook (4.7 yards per carry) should be plenty busy chewing up the clock this Sunday.
NFL Pick: Under 52.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Sunday, December 11, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Highmark Stadium
You might be expecting us to recommend the Jets again, given the way they upset the Bills in Week 9, but nope – the totals have all the betting value at this time of year, and the Over is the right call for this AFC East battle.
Will It Snow Again in Buffalo?
Probably not. The forecast this time calls for light rain and temperatures in the high 30s, which doesn’t help our pick much, but at least they won’t pack up and move to Ford Field this time.
The fact that Buffalo (Under 9-3) and New York (Under 7-5) are both defensively strong teams with a few bugaboos on offense won’t help us, either. But this pick is more about Mike White. He has the Over at 2-0 for the Jets since taking over at quarterback for Zach Wilson.
White isn’t the second coming of Joe Namath or anything, but he has performed considerably better than Wilson up to this point. The passing DVOA stats at Football Outsiders have White at plus-15.6% in his small sample size, comparable to Buffalo QB Josh Allen (No. 8 overall) at plus-14.1%.
Wilson, meanwhile, finds himself at minus-12.4% passing DVOA or No. 27 overall, down there in the weeds with Denver QB Russell Wilson (minus-12.9%). Wilson~!
NFL Pick: Over 43.5 (-108) at SugarHouse
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
Sunday, December 11, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at MetLife Stadium
Our Week 14 NFL betting tour wraps up in East Rutherford, where another New York team familiar to this space will take the field – but once again, we’re hammering that total instead.
Miles to Go
As much as we enjoyed making money hand over fist betting on the Giants (Under 7-3-2) earlier this year, they’ve come back down to earth somewhat, going 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in their past five games. QB Daniel Jones (No. 20 in passing DVOA) is getting by on scrambling and fumes now that his receiving corps and offensive line have been sideswiped by injuries.
The Eagles (Over 8-4) are scaring us a bit with their offense, which ranks No. 3 on the DVOA charts, but Philly’s defense also rates very highly at No. 6. And getting back to that offense for a moment, it’s the talented feet of QB Jalen Hurts (4.6 yards per carry) and RB Miles Sanders (4.9 YPC) doing much of the work.
All this on what should be a rainy Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium. Bet accordingly.
NFL Pick: Under 44.5 (-108) at FanDuel