Our last NFL picks of the regular season are all against the spread, and they start with the Philadelphia Eagles favored by 14 points.
Let’s put these horses in the paddock. The last week of the 2023 NFL regular season is here, and it’s guaranteed to end profitably for anyone who followed our football picks in this space. Our record stands at 32-18-1 after our Week 17 Best Bets went 1-2. Darn those Minnesota Vikings spoiling our fun again.
Apparently we never learn our lessons, because here we are with Minnesota creeping up in our Week 18 NFL picks. But first, we go to The Linc for a rare taste of chalk.
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 18, 2023 – 04:25 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field
One of these teams has something to play for this Sunday – and surprisingly enough, it’s the Eagles (13-3 SU, 8-8 ATS), who will lock down both the NFC East and the No. 1 conference seed with a win.
The Giants (9-6-1 SU, 12-4 ATS) are the No. 6 seed, no matter what.
What’s My Motivation?
We’re normally not too keen on betting double-digit favorites, but this is one of those strange situations where it’s the right thing to do – despite Giants head coach Brian Daboll having yet to announce whether he’ll rest his starters or not.
Even if Daboll brings out the big guns, the Eagles beat them 48-22 back in Week 14 as 7.5-point road faves. That was with Jalen Hurts under center for Philadelphia; his return appears imminent after he practiced with the first team Wednesday, but Gardner Minshew III is a proven backup if Hurts doesn’t play.
Philly has already clinched at least a Wild Card berth, so this isn’t your classic “spoiler” spot for the Giants, either. Nor will the Eagles feel as much pressure to nail down that No. 1 seed – which they can still claim if both Dallas and San Francisco lose their games.
NFL Pick: Eagles -14 (-108) at SugarHouse
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, January 8, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at Soldier Field
Here come those Vikings (12-4 SU, 6-9-1 ATS) again – and this time, we’re fading them as 7.5-point favorites versus the Bears (3-13 SU, 5-10-1 ATS), who were eliminated from playoff contention a while back.
A Viking Funeral
Aside from the possibility of moving up a seed from No. 3 to No. 2, there’s nothing for Minnesota to play for here. The Bears, on the other hand, could improve their draft position with a loss; they’ve already announced that Nathan Peterman will start at quarterback over Justin Fields (hip).
It seems bonkers to bet on Peterman here, given how famously awful he was during his brief stint with the 2018 Buffalo Bills. But despite all the progress Fields made over the course of the season, he still finished last on the passing DVOA charts at Football Outsiders.
No, Peterman can’t run like Fields, but those 1,143 yards Fields racked up still leave him at No. 10 in rushing DVOA. Efficiency over volume every time. And of course, we’re getting that extra half-point past the magic number 7, on what could be a rainy/snowy Sunday afternoon in Chicagoland. Scoring any points at all might be difficult for whichever Vikings suit up.
NFL Pick: Bears +7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, January 8, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at Paycor Stadium
Our final football pick of the regular season is another head-scratcher: Do we really trust the Ravens (10-6 SU, 6-9-1 ATS) to get the job done against the Cincinnati Bengals (11-4 SU, 12-3 ATS) as 7-point road dogs?
Unfinished Business
Trust, but verify. A win here for Cincinnati would clinch the AFC North title, and put them within one victory of the No. 1 conference seed – pending what the league decides to do with their postponed Week 17 game against Buffalo. But they’ll be in the playoffs win or lose this Sunday.
So will the Ravens, but they still have a shot at the division crown, and once again, this could turn out to be a rainy day at the former Paul Brown Stadium. With a relatively low total of 42 on the NFL odds board at Caesars Sportsbook, the Bengals could have trouble scoring the points they need to cover.
As for Baltimore’s quarterback situation, it appears less likely that Lamar Jackson (knee) will return for Week 18 after missing Wednesday’s practice, but Tyler Huntley hasn’t been a total disaster filling in for the former MVP. Bet accordingly.
NFL Pick: Ravens +7 (-110) at BetMGM
