NFL Week 3 Best Bets: A Risky Bet on Texans as the Underdog

Two straight weeks of 3-0 is as good as it gets. It won’t last, but our Week 3 NFL picks provide the best betting value on the board.

Earlier This Season…

You can’t beat perfection – but we’re trying. After going a perfect 3-0 with our Week 1 NFL picks, we did it again in Week 2, with the New York Jets (+6) and New England Patriots (–111 ML) both winning, and under 43.5 cashing in when the Dallas Cowboys beat the Cincinnati Bengals 20-17.

It obviously takes a fair bit of luck to start any season at 6-0, but we hope this illustrates the importance of selecting the very best bets on the NFL odds board. That means the ones with the highest potential profit margin in the long run.

Speaking of which, we’re more than happy to risk our perfect record by putting a moneyline underdog in our football picks. It’s not about that zero in the loss column – it’s about how much money we earn. So let’s take a closer look at what makes our Week 3 recommendations so tasty.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, September 25, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at Lumen Field

Our first NFL pick is Under 42 for Sunday’s Falcons-Seahawks matchup, and this might be worth throwing at least two units at, maybe even three. Seattle went into the 2022 season with the lowest-rated quarterbacks according to The Athletic:

  • Drew Lock (No. 34)
  • Geno Smith (No. 35)

Atlanta weren’t in much better shape with Marcus Mariota (No. 31) taking over for Matt Ryan.

To the surprise of absolutely no one, the Seahawks have the Under at 2-0 after two games. The Falcons, on the other hand, have the Over at 2-0.

It took a pair of 20-point fourth quarters to get there, though, and their opponents were the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams, two teams with considerably more firepower than Seattle.

The analytics aren’t particularly strong for either team’s defense after two weeks, but again, the Seahawks were up against what should be quality offenses in the Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers. Putting them on the same field as Atlanta should result in a low-scoring affair.

The Magic Number

We’re also looking at a 42-point total, a full point above the magic number 41. Yes, totals have magic numbers, too.

Grab this price in case the betting public comes in and drives the number down. The consensus numbers here at OddsTrader are split pretty much down the middle as we go to press.

NFL Pick: Under 42 (–110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, September 25, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field

This is the aforementioned moneyline pick. It’s on the Texans (0-1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS), and it’s time to give Houston QB Davis Mills the credit he’s due.

Thrust into the starting role after the Deshaun Watson fiasco and the hamstring issues that plagued Tyrod Taylor, Mills has performed at just slightly below replacement level, which is actually pretty good for a third-string quarterback.

He’s definitely outplayed Justin Fields. After two games, the sophomore QB for Chicago (1-1 SU and ATS) finds himself at No. 31 on the DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) charts at Football Outsiders, the same place he finished last year when the Bears went 6-11 SU and ATS.

Bears’ Lucky Strike is Over

This isn’t your typically strong Chicago defense, either. They’ve started the year at No. 27 on the DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Replacement) charts, well behind Houston at No. 16.

And if the weather forecast holds up, the Bears won’t benefit from the same sloppy conditions that helped them beat San Francisco in Week 1.

NFL Pick: Texans ML (+146) at SBK

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

Sunday, September 25, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Hard Rock Stadium

Betting against Buffalo (2-0 SU and ATS) might not look all that appetizing after they destroyed the defending champion Rams and the Tennessee Titans by a combined score of 72-17, but the Bills aren’t alone atop the AFC East. The Dolphins are also 2-0 SU and ATS, and they’ve done it against much tougher competition.

That’s according to the Simple Rating System at Pro Football Reference. They have Miami’s schedule thus far (New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens) at plus-12.0, the toughest in the AFC; the Bills are third from the bottom at -11.5.

Keep These Rankings in Mind

The NFL measures strength of schedule differently, but they also have Miami ahead of Buffalo, which is why the Dolphins are officially first in the division right now.

Anyway, the big thing here is the performance of QB Tua Tagovailoa, who ranks fourth in DYAR after two games, just a shade behind Bills QB Josh Allen in third. Bet accordingly.

NFL Pick: Miami +5.5 (–105) at BetMGM is your sports betting command center. Read featured betting strategy compiled from a panel of leading sports betting experts.

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