Week 5 was another perfect sweep for our NFL picks. Will the following three totals keep the gravy train running in Week 6?
Honestly, we’re not perfect – it just looks that way sometimes. For the fourth time this season, we swept all three of our NFL picks with our Week 5 Best Bets: the New York Giants (+8.5) and Houston Texans (+8) both won straight-up, and the Eagles-Cardinals matchup went comfortably Under 49 points.
Not that we’re counting, but that leaves us at 13-2 on the year. Enjoy the rush while it lasts. Profit margins are starting to tighten up as the 2022 regular season wears on. There are still some soft lines on the Week 6 NFL odds board, but this time, all our best bets are on the total.
Let’s see what the football gods have in store for us.
Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome
Our juiciest bet of the week takes us to the Superdome, where Cincinnati will be putting their perfect 5-0 under record at risk. Okay, the Bengals would almost certainly love to break that streak with a much-needed offensive explosion, but they don’t seem to have the tools to get the job done.
Some may point their fingers at Zac Taylor, now entering his fourth season as an NFL head coach. Taylor’s play-calling has come under fire in recent weeks, but this isn’t just on him – it’s also on offensive coordinator Brian Callahan and everyone else with their fingers in the coaching pie.
The analytics, if you’re into that, suggest a bigger problem for the Bengals. Their offensive line ranks No. 22 overall in Adjusted Line Yards at Football Outsiders. Injuries have thinned the ranks, and QB Joe Burrow has been even more exposed since blocking TE Drew Sample (knee) got hurt in Week 2.
The Betting Pick
The Saints could spoil our party. The Under was 2-1 with Jameis Winston under center, but his broken back has forced New Orleans to get creative with utility man Taysom Hill supporting No. 2 QB Andy Dalton.
The over has cashed in twice since Winston was put on the shelf; there’s a chance he returns this week, so consider waiting for more information, then size your bets accordingly.
NFL Pick: Under 43.5 (–110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lucas Oil Stadium
The Jags (Over 3-2) did us a solid last week by losing 13-6 to previously winless Houston. It was easily the worst game of the year for Jacksonville’s offense, but we’re looking for some bounce-back in Week 6.
Same goes for the Colts (Under 5-0). Granted, their offense is much worse than Jacksonville’s, as evidenced by last week’s 12-9 win over the Denver Broncos (Under 42).
The Betting Pick
Consider this a “buy low” opportunity following that epic Thursday Night Football fail-fest.
While these offenses were imploding in Week 5, Jaguars edge rusher K’Lavon Chiasson was also forced to leave the field with a torn meniscus, and he’s been placed on injured reserve.
The Colts can use these extra days off to coach up their re-tooled offensive line, which now features third-round rookie Bernhard Raimann at left tackle.
NFL Pick: Over 41.5 (–111) at SBK
Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at Lumen Field
Switching back to the Under, the Cardinals (Under 4-1) remain stuck in neutral on offense, which made last week’s game against Philly an easy target. But can they keep a lid on the Seahawks (Over 3-2)?
Maybe. Geno Smith may have been one of the league’s lowest-rated quarterbacks heading into the new campaign, but now he’s looking like an MVP candidate –thanks in no small part to rookie tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas.
Unfortunately for the Seahawks, they lost RB Rashard Penny to a broken fibula during last week’s 39-32 loss to the Saints (Over 45), which saw the aforementioned Hill rush for three touchdowns. RB Travis Homer (ribs) is also on injured reserve, so that leaves rookie Ken Walker III to carry the load, and his work has been spotty thus far.
The Betting Pick
The big question is whether to take Under 51.5 (–115) at FanDuel, or Under 51 (–107) at PointsBet. When it comes to totals, 51 is considered a magic number; according to Wizard of Odds, you should be willing to pay 8.9 cents in vigorish to move up that half-point to 51.5.
In this case, there’s only eight cents of vig separating these two NFL lines, so yes, we’ll tack on that extra half-point. It’s just the right thing to do.
NFL Pick: Under 51.5 (-115) at FanDuel