We’ve got a matchup between two of the AFC’s best teams as the Ravens play host to the Bills.
Baltimore was able to bounce back from their disappointing loss to the Dolphins in Week 3. The Bills meanwhile suffered their first loss of the season as they lost a heartbreaker to those same Dolphins.
Can Josh Allen and the Bills bounce back or will Baltimore get a big win that could have playoff implications? Let’s take a look at the NFL odds for this game.
Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 2, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at M&T Bank Stadium
Bills Road Favorites Despite Loss
Coming into the season, the Buffalo Bills were picked by oddsmakers as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Despite losing to the Miami Dolphins last week, it appears that they are still getting that same type of respect.
They come into this matchup against the Baltimore Ravens as -3.5 point favorites on the road. The line opened at Bills -4 so there has been some action on the Ravens early in the week.
I actually agree with this line despite all of the Bills’ injury concerns and last week’s loss. I think that Buffalo should have won that game with Josh Allen missing a throw that would have given them the lead late and that he normally makes 99 times out of 100.
That’s not an excuse but rather a justification as to why I’m not overreacting to the loss. The Bills do have some issues in their secondary with Micah Hyde on injured reserve and Jordan Poyer banged up.
That’s one of the best safety duos in the league and their absence was evident against Miami. They also picked up injuries in that game to two offensive linemen and a defensive tackle.
The fact that they only lost that game by 2 points to the blistering Florida heat is a sign that this team will not be easy to beat. The total for this game opened at 55 and has been steamed down to 51.5.
Lamar Jackson Is Winning Bet Made On Himself
The contract situation between Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens dominated off-season headlines in the NFL. As a former MVP, it would seem like a no-brainer to give him franchise QB money. The Ravens didn’t see it that way and in the end, Jackson opted to “bet on himself” by not accepting the Ravens’ offer. Through 3 games this season, it looks like the big winner here is Jackson.
He’s clearly improved as a passer and we already know what he can do with his feet. That combination makes him one of the league’s best quarterbacks and the Ravens will probably end up paying him even more than he was asking for in the offseason.
It hasn’t all been perfect in Baltimore, especially on defense where they have had a hard time getting stops. They are allowing 25.7 points per game which is 32 in the league.
The more concerning part of that is that two of their three opponents to start (the Jets and Patriots) aren’t good offenses. They did shut the Jets down but the Patriots were able to move the ball with relative ease which has to be a concern.
Official Pick is On the Over
My official pick for this game is the Bills/Ravens over 51.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook. One of the reasons for Lamar Jackson’s early season success has been the weapons around him.
While his running backs have been poor, his tight end Mark Andrews and wide receivers Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay have all been very good this season. Andrews in particular has been one of the league’s best at his position in the early part of the season.
With all of the injuries to the Bills’ secondary, I think the Ravens will be able to move the ball and put up points here. I’m not sure they win or cover though because their secondary has looked very vulnerable in the last two games.
Giving Up Yards Through the Air
Against Miami, they let Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill combine for 361 receiving yards. Last week they let Devante Parker go off for 156 yards despite the fact that he came into the game with 1 catch in the first two weeks.
I think both teams are able to move the ball and the difference here will be who wins the turnover battle wins the game. Although I do agree with Josh Allen being the preseason favorite to win MVP, he has been very careless with the ball.
While he only has 2 interceptions, he should count himself lucky because he’s had at least 5-6 plays that should have resulted in a pick.
This is the reason I can’t lay points with Buffalo on the road. I see much more value in this total after being beaten down from 55 to 51.5. Don’t forget to check out our NFL computer prediction for this game.
NFL Pick: Bills/Ravens Over 51.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook.