With Week 10 kicking off the second half of the NFL’s 2022 regular season, we saw some of the wildest games of the season with three of the top teams losing.
Just when you thought the Buffalo Bills were losing their shine as the Super Bowl favorites, we watched the Cowboys blow a 14-point lead in Green Bay and the Eagles even lost their first game of the season at home to Washington on Monday night.
This led to less of a shakeup in our power rankings at OddsTrader than expected, but we have a fresh top 10 list of the best teams right now based on past performance and the projected matchup they have this week.
For more information about how our tool works, be sure to check our 2021 Week 1 post.
1. Buffalo Bills (6-3 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)
- At home vs. Browns
- Betting Edge: +8.5
It would be foolish to give up on the Bills after blowing a 17-point lead to the Vikings at home that required multiple fourth downs, multiple interceptions by Josh Allen inside the 20-yard line, and the most absurd fumble recovered for a touchdown since Joe Pisarcik botched a handoff in 1978 against the Eagles for the Miracle at the Meadowlands. It was also the first time this season that the Bills allowed more than 21 points.
Allen’s decision-making inside the 20 is more problematic right now than his elbow injury as he looked fine physically on Sunday. Maybe this is where the team is missing offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who is now the Giants’ head coach, the best one so far in keeping Allen’s decision-making under control.
The Bills win Sunday’s game if they just knock down the fourth-and-18 pass that the defensive back helped Justin Jefferson catch. This team is its own worst enemy. The Bills need to come out angry but focused against a Cleveland team that is 0-3 and has allowed over 30 points to the other AFC East teams.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS)
- On the road at Chargers
- Betting Edge: +3
The Chiefs finally cruised in a wire-to-wire home win by beating Jacksonville 27-17. The other Kansas City home games this year were decided by 1-to-4 points, but the Chiefs took control early and never let up. It is also the second week in a row the defense allowed fewer than 20 points after failing to do so in the previous 12 games.
Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling each caught their first touchdown this season as Patrick Mahomes threw four more. He leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (25) and passing yards (2,936) and is the odds-on favorite to win his second MVP award.
The Chiefs can take a huge lead in the disappointing AFC West by completing a sweep of the Chargers on Sunday night, but games against Justin Herbert have been tough. Herbert has not lost by more than six points in any of his five meetings with the Chiefs.
3. Dallas Cowboys (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS)
- On the road at Vikings
- Betting Edge: -0.5
Sunday was the 196th game in which the Dallas Cowboys started the fourth quarter with a lead of at least 14 points. It was the first time they came out with a loss after Aaron Rodgers stung them again with a fourth-quarter comeback and overtime win.
It was such an odd game too because Rodgers threw just 20 passes, the second-fewest in NFL history for any team coming back from 14 down to start the fourth quarter. But the Cowboys blew some key coverages against Christian Watson, and Dak Prescott had some ugly interceptions in the first half.
The Cowboys are still in a good position to be a big factor in the NFC, but this blown lead was a huge disappointment in a week where the Eagles finally lost a game.
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-3 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)
- At home vs. Panthers
- Betting Edge: -2
Hopefully, the Ravens do not lose any more players to injury during their bye week. Things have been tough for Baltimore again on the injury front after a brutal 2021, but this is the only team in the league to lead every game by double digits at some point. Unfortunately, they still lost three of those games, but this team is very good with some very winnable games coming up against the Panthers, Jaguars, and Broncos.
The Ravens are capable of beating Buffalo or Kansas City, especially since tight end Mark Andrews and running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards should be back soon. Lamar Jackson can still get the job done with what he has, and the defense has forced a turnover in every game.
5. San Francisco 49ers (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS)
- On the road at Cardinals
- Betting Edge: -4
The 49ers probably boast the most offensive talent of any team in the league right now, but it is still the defense that leads this team. Justin Herbert just could not move the ball after halftime against the defense on Sunday night, turning a tough start for the 49ers into a 22-16 win that was nearly a backdoor cover for the highly favored 49ers.
If Kyle Shanahan can figure out how to use all these wonderful toys – Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk – then this team can beat anyone except maybe the Chiefs, if Week 7 (and Super Bowl LIV) is any indication.
But this is a huge week for Shanahan, who is 48-48 as head coach when you include playoff games. With a win over struggling Arizona on Monday night, Shanahan will have a record over .500 for the first time in his career. He is 0-5 in games where he is .500, so this would finally get him over that hump.
It’s a Long Way To the Top
6. New England Patriots (5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)
- At home vs. Jets
- Betting Edge: +2.5
You can bet Bill Belichick enjoyed having a bye week to prepare for one of his favorite opponents. The Patriots are clearly nowhere near the team they used to be, but one thing you can still count on them in the post-Tom Brady era is to beat the Jets.
Belichick is 5-0 against the Jets since 2020, including a 22-17 win in Week 8 that was not as close as it sounds. The Patriots pounded the Colts 26-3 in their last game, and for the most part they have done well in the games you’d expect them to outside of that ugly loss to Chicago in Week 7.
If the Patriots are going to continue being part of this playoff picture – the entire AFC East would make the playoffs if they started today – they have to win a game like this at home behind their defense making life difficult on Zach Wilson.
7. Philadelphia Eagles (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS)
- On the road at Colts
- Betting Edge: -3.5
Division games can be unpredictable, but the Eagles’ first loss of 2022 is not a cause for concern yet. The Eagles were done in by a Washington team going 12-of-15 on third down to start the game, three turnovers to double their total from the first eight games, and one very bad missed face mask penalty that directly caused one of those giveaways.
Even the run defense is not a concern yet. The Commanders ran the ball 49 times and none of the plays gained more than 11 yards. Facing a healthy Jonathan Taylor in Indianapolis could be a bigger problem this week, but the Eagles need to rush the passer better than they did on Monday night. If the Colts’ offensive line blocks like it usually has this year, they should look just fine on Sunday.
But this team was never a serious contender to go 17-0. Now they don’t have to worry about that pressure.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS)
- On the road at Steelers
- Betting Edge: +1
There is still no timetable on Ja’Marr Chase’s return from a hip injury as the team just had its bye. Chances are he will still be out this week as the team plays Pittsburgh again to avenge that crushing Week 1 loss that could haunt them come Week 18.
In that game, Chase was big time with 129 yards and a touchdown after Tee Higgins was concussed in the first half. Now the roles are expected to be reversed with Higgins having to act as the top wideout against a defense that intercepted Joe Burrow four times and sacked him seven times and forced a fumble for a fifth takeaway. Burrow has only been intercepted twice in the last eight games.
T.J. Watt is also back for Pittsburgh, so this game may not be a breeze for the Bengals, who desperately need it with a loaded remaining schedule that includes the Titans, Chiefs, Browns, Buccaneers, Patriots, Bills, and Ravens.
Imagine saying the “easiest” games are against a Pittsburgh team that embarrassed Cincinnati at home in Week 1 and a Cleveland team, which should have Deshaun Watson, that Burrow is 0-4 against.
This is why the Bengals have no margin for error after a 5-4 start. We already saw the Rams implode at 3-6 after winning the Super Bowl. Now their opponent from that game is walking a fine line despite having some impressive games this year.
9. Tennessee Titans (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS)
- On the road at Packers
- Betting Edge: 0
The Titans do not play the most exciting brand of football, but they were one stop away in Kansas City from being on a seven-game winning streak. This is true despite the team not scoring more than 24 points in any game this season. But the Titans also have not allowed any opponent except for Buffalo to score more than 22 points, and the defense ranks No. 1 on third down.
The Titans also know their offensive identity with Derrick Henry, and they still rank No. 1 in scoring touchdowns in the red zone behind Ryan Tannehill, who returned to action Sunday in a 17-10 win over Denver.
But this short week and trip to Green Bay could be tough. The last time the Titans played in Green Bay at night was in 2020 and the Packers blew them out 40-14 in a snow game where they looked like the more physical team.
Still, Titans coach Mike Vrabel is one of the best underdogs in the league and should have his team ready for this one.
10. Minnesota Vikings (8-1 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)
- At home vs. Cowboys
- Betting Edge: +0.5
The Vikings are the only team in the NFL’s salary cap era (since 1994) to send its defense on the field in the final minute while trailing and go on to win the game. That is how badly the Bills botched their quarterback sneak from their own goal line by fumbling the snap.
But even then, the Vikings nearly got hosed by a bad call of a completion to Gabe Davis that helped the Bills go to overtime where the Vikings still won for their fifth fourth-quarter comeback win of the season.
The Vikings can become the first team in NFL history to win eight games in a row by no more than eight points if they do it against Dallas this week to get to 9-1. Having Justin Jefferson weakens the argument that the 2022 Vikings are one of the luckiest teams in NFL history because that is one special receiver.
