Should You Back/Fade Unbeaten College Football Teams in November?

John Metchie III #8 and Jameson Williams #1 of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Marvin Gentry/Getty Images /AFP

As we head into the month of November for 2021, there are six unbeaten teams. For these squads, they either have an air of invincibility or they feel the pressure is mounting and they are trying to figure out how to handle it.

Because these are prominent teams both in the rankings and largely in the media, the betting odds like you will find at Oddstrader are invariably inflated to a degree on every undefeated club. Thus, there are certain ways to look at these teams that not only apply to this season but every year for making college football picks.

Are the Teams Physical or Winning Because of a Unique Skill?

As far as being physical this applies in part to all such teams in the latter stages of the season. If an unbeaten team is known for running the ball and stopping the run and plays excellent defense, this is the kind of club you can back. The reason is they have staying power and are strong in the very fundamentals of the sport, specifically, blocking and tackling.

Teams that have those traits will stay in games and even if the passing game is a little off or the tenacity is not quite what it should be, they still have the ability to beat or even overwhelm their opponents.

Conversely, if a club is one dimensional, either running or passing and their defense is bend but doesn’t break and they live off creating turnovers, this type of team is more susceptible to being defeated.

Why, if their opponent can take away their main method of moving the ball or are not turnover prone, that would strip a key weapon of that group. In this case, know the numbers of the unit with the perfect record and who they are matched against when reviewing the NCAAF odds at Oddstrader.

Investigate for Injuries

By this time of year, every club has gone through its share of players getting hurt. Some have been dramatically impacted and others have not as much. Seek answers that could have a couple of offensive linemen out from an excellent running team out for the season and rushing numbers are dwindling. Or injuries at linebacker and this team’s yards allowed are on the rise. One other area is the secondary, where the passing yards against have really gone up. The smart bettor knows what he’s dealing with in these spots.

Schedules Matter

Other than the SEC, most conferences are playing all league games late in the year. When this happens, a club could run into a stretch of two or three extremely challenging battles that are not only physically difficult but mentally so also.

Let’s say an undefeated team from the Big Ten is off two grueling four quarters contests. They did not suffer any major injuries; however, a lot of players were taken out of those games and they were pretty beat up.

Their next foe is a road skirmish and though they are only a .500 unit, they have a very good quarterback and receivers and can score. At least, in theory, this is an arduous situation for an unblemished crew that could falter if they only have a C-level showing and effort.

Despite Kentucky being the ranked team, and the action being split almost 50-50, the line movement could suggest that the Wildcats’ injuries could affect the team more that expected.

 

Knowing Their Ability to Handle Pressure

Almost every team will face that moment of truth late in the year, where one play could result in a positive or negative outcome. Big-time football programs that established themselves year after year like Alabama, Ohio State, and Oklahoma are used to playing in pressure situations. They don’t always succeed, but they are better equipped for the moment.

Then others have put together a completely unexpected season, having a quarterback and offense that jelled. The same was also true on the defensive side of the ball and this club has outstanding senior leadership that led them to this juncture. 

But what they could lack if their talent is not overwhelming is the experience of understanding how to handle extreme pressure. If you never have gone through it, you have no idea about how you could react. This is where these types of units can crumble and we have lost five unbeaten squads in the past two weeks.

If you follow these betting tips, you set yourself up to understand when to back or fade a club late in the year. 

OddsTrader.com is your sports betting command center. Read featured betting strategy compiled from a panel of leading sports betting experts.

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