We have two days left in the month of February, meaning we are inching closer to the greatest month of sports on the calendar. March may be on the horizon, but plenty of teams are in postseason form.
This weekend, we saw 10 of the top 25 teams in the country lose. There were road upsets, buzzer-beaters, and bracket-shifting outcomes. With all of this drama before the regular season ends, this NCAA Tournament is shaping up to be one of the wildest yet.
However, one thing has changed this year compared to before. Advanced analytics has progressed more in the past 12 months than in any other period in sports betting history.
Because of this, we have AI making predictions for us. This will be the first postseason where the science of artificial intelligence will have a fair fight against the entropy of the NCAA Tournament.
We have one week left of the regular season. Let’s kick off Monday with three AI picks that I agree with.
Pick Summary
NCAAB Pick: Oklahoma State +1.5 (-110) at FanDuel
NCAAB Pick: West Virginia vs. Iowa State Over 134.5 (-110) at Caesars
NCAAB Pick: Florida State +7.5 (-115) at BetMGM
Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Monday, February 27, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at Gallagher-Iba Arena
Baylor is currently a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and they need some help to get up to the 2-line. Also, Oklahoma State is firmly on the bubble. A win here would cement the team’s stake in the big dance, so plenty is on the line.
With the Cowboys playing at home, it’s hard to imagine them going down without a fight. This late in the season, it’s hard for me to pick a road favorite against a bubble team that is better on defense.
OSU has four straight losses, so things are not looking great. That would be the only reason I wouldn’t consider this a lock. Still, all of the struggles in recent weeks would be erased with a home win against one of the best teams in the country.
With a line this close, it wouldn’t shock me if the Cowboys moneyline were to hit. Instead, though, I’ll take the cushion that comes with a slight spread. This could easily come down to the last shot, and this line predicts that.
NCAAB Pick: Oklahoma State +1.5 (-110) at FanDuel
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Monday, February 27, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at James A. Hilton Coliseum
Speaking of bubble teams, West Virginia needs an upset win to feel fully confident about reaching the NCAA Tournament. This would certainly count, so don’t be surprised if they pull off the upset.
However, I care more about the total line for this game. The Mountaineers have taken strides offensively in recent weeks, and Erik Stevenson has scored over 20 points in three straight games. He struggles mightily in the last matchup between these teams, but I don’t see him scoring single digits once again.
You don’t want to make picks based solely on the expectation of overtime, but it’s a fact that games are more likely to be close later in the year. With a close game comes the chance for overtime, so don’t be surprised if this one hits in extra minutes.
I realize that Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the country, but I also know that West Virginia can put up points against quality defenses. It’s a risky bet, but give me the over.
We’re left with one more pick for this Monday.
NCAAB Pick: Over 134.5 (-110) at Caesars
North Carolina Tarheels vs. Florida State Seminoles
Monday, February 27, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Donald L. Tucker Center
The Tarheels absolutely have to win this game if they want to reach the NCAA Tournament. They are currently on the wrong side of the bubble, and a disappointing loss to a 9-20 team would be detrimental to their resume.
Despite two straight wins, I’m still not sold on North Carolina as a tournament team. They have played uncharacteristically for the past few weeks before this brief run, and those mistakes don’t become fixed overnight.
North Carolina will have the crowd rocking, but a spread this high in a game of this magnitude doesn’t seem right. Florida State can put points on the board, and the artificial intelligence expects this to be closer than the experts think.
I still have the Tarheels winning, but give me FSU to cover.
NCAAB Pick: Florida State +7.5 (-115) at BetMGM
