The Top 5 OddsTrader NFL Computer Picks for Week 12

Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs Nfl
Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs rushes for a first down with less than a minute to play during a 30-27 Chiefs win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

In preparing for Week 12 in the NFL, we used the OddsTrader BetStation app to find the best computer-generated predictions for this week’s games.

Anyone can download the free app from their device’s app store. It will show you statistical comparisons of each matchup, information on past meetings as well as spread movement, injury news, and even the weather forecast.

We ranked the top five picks (spreads or totals) from the OddsTrader app for Week 12 in the NFL, including which online sportsbook is offering the best price.

5. Ravens Look to Keep Score Down vs. Jaguars

Our first top pick of Week 12 sees the Ravens on the road trying to improve to 8-3 and keep their historic streak alive of leading by double digits in every game.

The Jaguars are fresh off a bye, but their only win in the last seven games was a 17-point comeback against the Raiders. The Ravens are a 4-point road favorite with a total of 43.5 points.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at TIAA Bank Stadium

While the Jaguars have that big comeback against the Raiders, the Ravens have tightened up their ability to hold onto leads after struggling mightily with that earlier this season, when they lost three games after leading by double digits.

Travis Etienne was held in check by the Chiefs in Jacksonville’s last game, and the Ravens have not allowed 50 rushing yards in any of the last three games. The Jaguars just signed Darrell Henderson from the Rams, but it would be hard to expect much from him in this game if he even plays.

After getting into a couple shootouts earlier this season with the Dolphins and Patriots, the Ravens have settled down defensively. The Ravens haven’t allowed any other opponent to top 24 points, and the defense has at least one takeaway in every game. The Ravens also haven’t allowed any offense to gain 350 yards in the last seven games.

The Betting Pick

It is hard to trust Trevor Lawrence’s spotty accuracy to show up against a defense expected to blitz and pressure him often. Five of Baltimore’s last seven games have finished under 43.5 points. The Jaguars also have yet to allow more than 23 points in a home game this year.

The spread is up in the air, but we really agree and like the under pick from the BetStation app on this one.

OddsTrader NFL Final Score Prediction: Ravens 21 – Jaguars 21

OddsTrader NFL Total Pick: Under 43.5 (-106) at FanDuel

4. Playoff Rematch in Tennessee

One of the key playoff games last year was Cincinnati’s 19-16 upset in the divisional round in Tennessee against the No. 1 seed. The Bengals won despite allowing nine sacks to Joe Burrow largely because Ryan Tannehill tossed three interceptions in an awful game for him.

Now, the Bengals return as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 42.5 points.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans

Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Nissan Stadium

The Titans just work better as an underdog as it fits head coach Mike Vrabel well with this team’s identity as being tough and physical. They stop the run better than anyone right now as only some scrambles by Patrick Mahomes have helped a team rush for over 70 yards against the Titans in the last seven games.

Mahomes is also the only quarterback to beat the Titans in their last eight games after starting the season 0-2. But the offense has found its way back through Derrick Henry, and Ryan Tannehill has played very well the last two weeks since returning from injury.

The Bengals are hoping to get Ja’Marr Chase back from a hip injury, but he could be limited. Whether Joe Mixon (concussion) plays or not may not matter as the Bengals usually struggle to run and the Titans are going to make them one dimensional.

It comes down to whether or not Burrow can handle the pass rush like he did in January, when he still passed for over 300 yards despite the nine sacks. Burrow usually doesn’t throw for a lot of yards on the road, but he’ll need a big effort here against a Tennessee defense that made Aaron Rodgers look so lethargic in their last game. Buffalo is still the only team to score more than 22 points on Tennessee this season, and that was way back in Week 2.

The Betting Pick

Since this is a regular-season game, you can trust Tannehill to not screw it up so badly like he did in January. Take the Titans, who are a league-best 8-2 ATS this year, with the points at home.

OddsTrader NFL Final Score Prediction: Titans 22 – Bengals 22

OddsTrader NFL Spread Pick: Titans +2.5 (-101) at SBK

3. Kyle Allen Makes First Texans Start vs. Red-Hot Miami

The Houston Texans (1-8-1) are benching Davis Mills, who is next to last in QBR this year, for Kyle Allen. He will make his first start since 2020 with Carolina against a rested Miami team that has won four in a row behind some great offense.

The Dolphins are a 13.5-point home favorite with a total of 47 points.

Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins

Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Hard Rock Stadium

Miami has scored at least 31 points in three consecutive games against the likes of the Lions, Bears, and Browns. Not world-beaters, but the Texans have the worst record in the league and have been awful at stopping the run this year. But the Dolphins are much better suited for the pass with Tua Tagovailoa dropping big passes all over the field to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle this season in Mike McDaniel’s great passing game.

In the last three weeks, Tagovailoa is completing 76.5% of his passes with 9.9 yards per attempt, leading to 323 yards a week and nine touchdowns with zero interceptions. This surge is why he is leading the league in yards per attempt, passer rating, and QBR.

As for the Texans, Kyle Allen is a new commodity with a better-than-expected resume. In 17 starts in the NFL, Allen has passed for 4,318 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. Solid numbers for an undrafted free agent and journeyman. Allen is also 7-10 as a starter and has led his team to at least 20 points in 11-of-17 starts.

You wouldn’t expect Allen to get into a shootout with this limited Houston passing offense, but you do want to see some improvement over what the team was getting with Mills this year. The Texans also have a great rookie running back in Dameon Pierce, who was dominated by the Washington front last week. Look for him to get going in this matchup.

The Betting Pick

If the Texans can score 17-to-20 points in this one, then the Dolphins should be able to get to 30 again. The over is a good pick for this one.

OddsTrader NFL Final Score Prediction: Dolphins 30 – Texans 18

OddsTrader NFL Total Pick: Over 46.5 (-118) at Fanduel

2. Chiefs Get to Know Bryce Perkins

It has taken four years to get a rematch of 2018’s 54-51 game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams. No one would have imagined it would be Patrick Mahomes against Bryce Perkins in 2022, but that is where we are with Matthew Stafford back in the concussion protocol and John Wolford suffering a neck injury.

The Rams are also without Cooper Kupp (ankle), so Kansas City is a 15.5-point home favorite with a total of 43 points.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

This is the third-largest spread of the Mahomes era. The Chiefs covered as a 20-point favorite against the 2020 Jets (won 35-9) and did not cover as a 16.5-point favorite against the 2018 Cardinals (won 26-14).

The Rams have already lost this season by 21 points to the Bills and 17 points to the 49ers, and both of those games were at home with Stafford and Kupp available. This might sound like a slam dunk for a Kansas City cover, but it’s not like we haven’t seen the Chiefs struggle as a 14-point favorite at home against Malik Willis and the Titans.

Perkins arguably has more passing prowess than Willis, a rookie, though Perkins is still woefully inexperienced for this matchup with Mahomes. At Virginia, Perkins had five 300-yard passing games, including one at Notre Dame and another with four touchdown passes against Florida in the 2019 Orange Bowl.

The Rams lost 27-20 in New Orleans last week after getting shredded by Andy Dalton. It is very tempting to pick the blowout and under as if the Chiefs are going to win a 30-13 game, but this does not feel like that kind of team this year.

Every team has scored at least 17 points on the Chiefs, and it is not unreasonable for Perkins’ mobility to bring a new dimension to a Sean McVay offense after years of Jared Goff and Stafford staying in the pocket. He is going to have to get more creative this week for the Rams to not get embarrassed.

The Betting Pick

We’ll avoid the spread for now, but the over should be a good pick as the Chiefs are likely going to score their usual number of points while also allowing more than they should. That is the (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo way.

OddsTrader NFL Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 30 – Rams 20

OddsTrader NFL Total Pick: Over 43 (-109) at SBK

1. Raiders Look for Winning Streak in Seattle

The Seattle Seahawks (6-4) return from their bye after losing in Germany to the Buccaneers. The Raiders just swept the Broncos and did not allow an opponent to score 20 points for the first time this season. These two old AFC West rivals meet again.

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 47.5 points.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 04:05 PM EST at Lumen Field

Unless Geno Smith turned into a pumpkin over the bye week and holiday, he should be licking his chops to face this Raiders defense. The Raiders have a league-low six takeaways and have yet to force multiple takeaways in any game. They also have just 13 sacks and allow quarterbacks to complete 71.5% of their passes, the only defense above 70% this season.

Smith just happens to be leading the league by completing 72.8% of his passes. He is going to have a nice game in this one, as should rookie back Kenneth Walker III after he was shut down by the Buccaneers.

As for the Raiders, they seem to be adjusting to running the offense through Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams with little help from anyone else. Derek Carr had the first 300-yard passing game of the season against Denver’s top-ranked defense last week in an overtime win. He knows his days could be numbered in Las Vegas if he doesn’t turn this thing around this season.

The Betting Pick

This feels like a shootout in the making or at least a game that hits the over in the fourth quarter, with both teams having the firepower to score in a variety of ways. The over is our favorite play of the week in Seattle.

OddsTrader NFL Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 30 – Raiders 26

OddsTrader NFL Total Pick: Over 47.5 (-108) at BetRivers

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