Tips for Profitable NBA Player Props After the First Month of the 2022-23 Season

Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers NBA player
Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers is guarded by Precious Achiuwa #5 and Scottie Barnes #4 of the Toronto Raptors during a basketball game at the Scotiabank Arena on October 26, 2022. Mark Blinch/Getty Images/AFP

Have you taken the leap in betting on NBA player props yet? It can be a profitable venture if done right. Let’s break down some tips. 

Remember you can also check out OddsTrader’s computer-generated picks to get a better idea of how each game shapes up from a statistical perspective, before placing your bets.

Be Wary Of Back-To-Backs

I’m a huge NBA fan, but no sport has star players rest more than the Association, especially in the second of a back-to-back, so it’s always important to be prepared as if that will happen – although in some cases you don’t find out until the pregame shootaround.  

For example, the Golden State Warriors are taking it very cautiously with injury-prone All-Star guard Klay Thompson. The Dubs played November 13 in Sacramento and were upset, and Thompson then got Monday night off against San Antonio. That’s probably going to happen all year and it can most definitely have an impact on the NBA odds.  

The Fab Five of Consistency

Only five players in the entire NBA last season took the court in all 82 games: 

  • Kevon Looney (Warriors)
  • Deni Avdija (Wizards)
  • Saddiq Bey (Pistons)
  • Mikal Bridges (Suns)
  • Dwight Powell (Mavericks)

Looney has played in 125 consecutive regular-season games, the third-longest active streak behind Bridges (322) and Bey (149). Monday was the third time Thompson took a seat and all were in the second of a back-to-back.

Bey could be a good bet in terms of taking over his nightly point total for a while because he will be the No. 1 option on the Pistons with young star Cade Cunningham, the 2021 No. 1 overall pick, expected to miss another week or so with a shin injury. 

Betting On Volume

Cunningham is averaging team highs with 19.9 points and 6.0 assists while adding 6.2 rebounds. He’ll be re-evaluated after the Pistons’ showdown in Los Angeles against the Lakers on November 18. The Pistons would rather be conservative than trot out Cunningham and risk further injury.

“We’re being cautious,” embattled coach Dwane Casey said over the weekend. “The medical team is working with it and treating it. We feel like giving him those days off will help alleviate the pain and soreness.”

Embiid Going Nuts Without Harden

The Philadelphia 76ers remain without All-Star guard James Harden and that has been a huge boost to stud center Joel Embiid statistically. On November 13, Embiid dropped a career-high 59 points to lead the 76ers past the Utah Jazz. He also flirted with a quadruple-double by supplementing those points with 11 rebounds, 8 assists and 7 blocked shots. 

His performance had all types of historical significance as he became the first player with 50 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 blocks in a game since blocks became an official stat in 1973-74. When added to the 42 points he scored on Saturday, Embiid became just the third player since 1988 to score 100 points in a back-to-back.  

He carried Philadelphia to the win by scoring 26 of the team’s 27 points in the fourth quarter, along with registering five of his seven blocked shots in the final period. He became the first player to register at least 20 points and five blocks in a single quarter in the past 25 seasons and the first player to outscore both teams by himself in the fourth quarter (26-21) since Tracy McGrady in 2006.

Don’t Fade When Dealing With Generational Talent 

“This is not about me,” Embiid said afterward. “We did it as a team. Obviously, the coaches put me in those positions and my teammates fed me the ball. I thought we had great spacing around everything we were doing. … As I said, all the credit goes to my teammates.”

Coach Doc Rivers — who has played or coached in nearly 3,000 regular-season and playoff games — declared, “I’ve never seen a more dominating performance when you combine offense and defense.”

With his huge night, Embiid’s MVP odds at shifted from 22/1 to 12/1. Harden isn’t expected back for at least a few more weeks with his right foot tendon strain and you find out his return date with the OddsTrader injuries report. Keep crushing Embiid overs.

Careful Of Possible Blowouts

I recommend not wagering on superstar player props on over points, etc… if you think that guy’s team is going to blow out the opponent because coaches will pull said star as soon as the game is in hand.  

Just for an example, the Phoenix Suns recently beat the Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points and Coach Monty Williams pulled All-Star and MVP candidate Devin Booker after just 29 minutes. He finished with 24 points.

Through the first 12 games of this season, Booker had scored 320 total points, the fourth-most points by a Suns player in franchise history through the first 12 games of a season. The Suns’ record for most total points through the first 13 games of a season is 360 by Charlie Scott in the 1972-73 season, while Booker’s career high for points in the first 13 games is 330 to open the 2019-20 season.  

Look for a chance of a blowout in the next couple of days to bet the Unders for Booker.


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