Let’s look at three games by considering the merit of their projections with help from the computer picks from OddsTrader. These three games are Twins vs. Royals, Rockies vs. Padres, and Rangers vs. Phillies.
Picks Summary:
- Twins vs. Royals: Under 8.5 (+100)
- Rockies vs. Padres: Rockies +1.5 (-110)
- Rangers vs. Phillies: Rangers ML (-120)
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Sunday, April 02, 2023 – 02:10 PM at Kauffman Stadium
Computer Projection
Our computers project a low-scoring Royals victory. Should we agree with this projection?
Joe Ryan’s Great Outlook
Minnesota’s starter Joe Ryan makes his first start of the season. He debuts an improved and expanded pitching arsenal: he now also throws a slider and a split finger.
But worse versions of himself already merit optimism towards his outlook against the Royals.
Ryan’s Situation
Ryan’s outlook today is particularly positive because of his history against the Royals. In his career, he is 4-0 with a 1.13 ERA in four starts against Kansas City. Active Royal batters do not have more than two hits with Ryan on the found, despite seeing him often because he plays in their division.
The one Kansas City player who has hit a home run off him is Vinnie Pasquantino, who is off to a sluggish start with a .167 slugging rate so far. Track record aside, Royal batters simply lack quality, for which reason they have yet to score a single run so far.
Ryan’s great spot will ensure that he shows superb form today, whereas Kansas City’s batters are struggling for form. Ryan is in a great spot also because he owns a 1.17 ERA in his career in March/April. He’ll be ready to rock today.
Twins’ Injuries
But the Twins are struggling to hit the ball – they’ve mustered two runs in each of their two games so far.
Injuries are holding them back. The injuries that are particularly critical for them today are those sustained by Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff. Because both hitters are hurt, they won’t get to flex their strong track records against Royals’ starter Brad Keller.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (+100) at BetMGM
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, April 02, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at PETCO Park
Computer Projection
Our computers project a tight game despite the fact that San Diego is favored so heavily.
What should we do with this information?
Colorado’s Starter
Today, Austin Gomber starts for the Rockies. Gomber is not getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers. To be fair, his career ERA looks rather bleak, but he owes his bad career ERA to his bad performances against teams that are not the Padres.
We have today a unique opportunity to back the undervalued Gomber. In his career, he enjoys a 2.01 ERA in 31.1 innings against San Diego.
Colorado Hitters
All Colorado needs to do is to continue scoring four or more runs. 4+ runs will suffice at least to keep them within one run.
They’re in a promising spot today also with San Diego starter Seth Lugo adjusting to the starter role – he was previously a bullpen commodity.
MLB Pick: Rockies +1.5 (-110) at Bet365
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers
Sunday, April 02, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Computer Projection
Our computers predict a solid victory for Texas. Should we agree with this projection?
Stronger Starter
The starting pitcher matchup favors Texas. Rangers’ starter Martin Perez took a solid step forward last year by achieving a 2.89 ERA. His 2.45 Spring Training ERA indicates that he is primed to continue being a great pitcher.
Philadelphia’s starter, Bailey Falter, has developed much more modestly than his veteran Ranger counterpart. Falter’s outlook anyhow is a tough one today against a Rangers team that has scored 27 runs in two games so far.
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-120) at BetRivers
