Wednesday’s Top Pick
MLB Pick: Twins ML (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
This is a good sign: The MLB picks computer isn’t going haywire. The MLB projections at OddsTrader have been relatively consistent from game to game in these early-season series – with varying degrees of accuracy, of course, but that’s to be expected with these models.
The important thing is consistency. That tells us there’s a limited amount of noise in these projections, and that we can indeed use them to help us make smarter baseball picks.
That’s if we use them wisely. After applying due handicapping diligence to Wednesday’s computer-generated MLB picks, we’ve picked out the three that make the most sense to bet on. And it just so happens that two of these picks already cashed in earlier this week.
Minnesota Twins vs. Miami Marlins
Wednesday, April 05, 2023 – 01:10 PM EDT at loanDepot Park
The computers were very happy to jump on Minnesota this past Monday. They had the Twins beating the Marlins 3.2 runs to 2.7 in the series opener; instead, it was a 10-1 butt-kicking, with Minny paying out at -125 on the MLB odds board at Caesars Sportsbook.
Now we’re back for the finale of this three-game set, where the Twins are projected to win 3.8 runs to 2.7. That’s enough for the computers to recommend Minnesota at -110, although it’s pretty clear they’re not actually taking the vigorish into account – that’s up to us.
It’s Pythagorean!
Which we can do easily enough with an online baseball Pythagorean calculator. Plug in those run projections, and you have the Twins winning 66.5% of the time, for a fair equivalent moneyline of -198. You don’t have to be a math whiz to see the value in Minnesota -110.
The actual gap between these two teams is probably smaller than projected, but the Twins (4-0, plus-2.83 betting units heading into Tuesday’s action) should still be worth investing a standard one-unit wager this Wednesday afternoon against the very sad Marlins (1-4, minus-3.07 units).
Fading Jesus
That’s if you’re willing to fade Jesus Luzardo (3.11 xFIP last year). The emerging southpaw stud engineered Miami’s only victory thus far, holding the New York Mets (-101 away) to two hits and four walks over 5.2 scoreless innings last Friday in a 2-1 final.
Minnesota responds with Pablo Lopez (3.56 xFIP), a former Marlin who was sent to the Twins back in January as part of the package that brought 2B Luis Arraez (.795 OPS) to Miami. Lopez had just signed a one-year deal with the Fish to avoid salary arbitration when they decided to pull the trigger. He shouldn’t have much trouble getting motivated for this start.
MLB Pick: Twins ML (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, April 05, 2023 – 01:40 PM EDT at American Family Field
Here’s another callback to Monday’s MLB picks, where the computers had Milwaukee (2-2 Totals) beating the Mets (2-2-1 Totals) 4.8 runs to four; the Brewers won 10-0, much to the delight of everyone who took Over 7.5 at FanDuel as recommended.
For the third and last game of this series, Milwaukee is once again projected to come out on top, four runs to 3.8. That doesn’t leave much profit margin on Over 7.5, despite the -105 deal on vigorish at FanDuel, but a slight lean and a correspondingly small bet are still in order.
Mediocre Bullpens
New York’s David Peterson (3.31 xFIP) and Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes (2.85 xFIP) are penciled in to start Wednesday. They’re not the kind of guys you want to see in an Over bet, but the bullpens for both teams are off to mediocre starts this year, and relievers are more important than ever with today’s shrinking pitch counts.
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-105) at FanDuel
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, April 05, 2023 – 02:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Our third pick is another over/under, this time going Under 7.5 at Caesars for Wednesday’s finale between the Orioles (Over 3-1) and the Rangers (2-2 Totals). The OT computers like Texas to win 3.7 runs to 2.7, leaving us ample room to slip below the posted total.
No Need to Know the Starters
While we wait for the O’s to name their starter, Jacob deGrom (1.53 xFIP last year with the Mets) is already in the chute for Texas.
Don’t be too concerned about deGrom’s five earned runs in 3.2 innings versus the Philadelphia Phillies on Opening Day; his performance was still good enough for a 1.79 xFIP (expected Fielder Independent Pitching) at FanGraphs.
Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
