MLB Prop Pick: Victor Robles to Get a Hit (-160) at Caesars Sportsbook
Picks Summary:
MLB Prop Pick: Victor Robles to Get a Hit (-160)
MLB Prop Pick: Gunnar Henderson to Get a Hit (-170)
MLB Prop Pick: Keibert Ruiz to Get a Hit (-220)
Hits are on the MLB picks menu this Tuesday when the Washington Nationals welcome the Baltimore Orioles to the nation’s capital.
Here are three player prop picks from Tuesday with the best MLB odds from the top-rated books.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
Tuesday, April 18, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Nationals Park
It’s a miracle that baseball came back to D.C. at all. Okay, maybe “miracle” isn’t the right word if you were a fan of the Montreal Expos, but their unlikely transformation to the Washington Nationals in 2005 was only possible because the Baltimore Orioles agreed to it.
That’s because Washington is part of what used to be Baltimore’s exclusive TV market. The Orioles entered an agreement with the Nationals that gave Baltimore the lion’s share of their conjoined broadcast entities and revenues – and these two teams have basically been at war ever since.
Expect at least some fireworks this Tuesday when the Nats host the O’s for the first of two games at Nationals Park. In fact, each of our three MLB picks for Tuesday comes from this game; all these baseball props are for getting a base hit, and Washington centerfielder Victor Robles is our top target, with a payout of -160 on the early overseas lines as we go to press.
Who Is Victor Robles?
Robles (15-for-49, .306 BA) was a fresh-faced rookie in 2019 when the Nationals backed their way into a World Series title, but the young Dominican was a big part of their success, posting a career-high 3.5 WAR at FanGraphs and finishing sixth in American League Rookie of the Year voting.
Sadly for Robles, he’s been playing at roughly replacement level ever since. But he’s off to a much better start in 2023, striking out far less often (13.6%) while racking up more walks (10.2%). Maybe Robles will use that newfound plate discipline to avoid some of the regression that his .366 BABIP suggests is around the corner.
The Nats have moved Robles down from eighth to ninth in their batting order, which isn’t great for our MLB props, but look who’s starting for Baltimore this Tuesday: Dean Kremer (6.04 xFIP in 12.1 innings), the nominal No. 2 pitcher in their suspect rotation.
Kremer is in his fourth year in the bigs, all with Baltimore; he was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 14th round back in 2016 and sent to the Orioles two years later as part of the Manny Machado trade. His curveball was his best pitch, but for whatever reason, Uncle Charlie has been gradually dropped from his arsenal and replaced by some other off-speed stuff that isn’t really getting the job done.
Robles has yet to face Kremer (a fellow right-hander) in the bigs, but current Washington hitters are a combined 6-for-17 off Kremer with five doubles and a 1.000 OPS. All we need is one hit, and FantasyData has Robles projected for 0.84 hits this Tuesday; the only thing keeping us from unloading more than one betting unit is the winds that are expected to blow down the third-base line, gusting up to 25 mph.
MLB Prop Pick: Victor Robles to Get a Hit (-160) at Caesars Sportsbook
Who Is Gunnar Henderson?
Switching sides now, we have Henderson (8-for-45, .178 BA), Baltimore’s sophomore utility infielder, and DH. Henderson is one of their better prospects, a second-round pick in 2019 and their representative at the 2022 All-Star Futures Game.
If we’re willing to look past this year’s slow start, Henderson hit .259 in 34 games as a rookie with a .788 OPS, so he’s got the goods. And the left-handed hitter will be facing north paw Josiah Gray (4.73 xFIP in 16.2 innings), the closest thing Washington has to an ace in their rotation.
This is another matchup that we’ve never seen before; Gray has only faced one of these Orioles in his career, and it was Adam Frazier, who went 2-for-2 with a home run. FantasyData projects Henderson for 0.83 hits in this contest, and he’ll pay out at -170 if he does, so we’re looking at almost the same potential profit margin as we’re getting with the Robles prop.
MLB Prop Pick: Gunnar Henderson to Get a Hit (-170) at Caesars Sportsbook
Who Is Keibert Ruiz?
Finishing off with another Nat, Ruiz (13-for-53, .245 BA) is Washington’s second-year catcher, another product of the Dodgers farm system who was sent to D.C. in 2021 alongside Gray and several others in the Max Scherzer deal.
Ruiz has yet to show off the power he promised coming up the minors, but he’s still making contact, and FantasyData has him down for 0.96 hits this Tuesday – which makes that -220 payout worth a reasonably small investment. Bet accordingly.
MLB Prop Pick: Keibert Ruiz to Get a Hit (-220) at Caesars Sportsbook
