UFC on ABC 4 Rozenstruik vs. Almeida Best Bets: Round 2 Looking Unlikely

Jailton Almeida Shamil Abdurakhimov heavyweight bout
Jailton Almeida celebrates after defeating Shamil Abdurakhimov during their heavyweight bout. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida: Fight to End in Round 1 (-150) at BetMGM

Picks Summary

  • Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida: Fight to End in Round 1 (-150) at BetMGM
  • Anthony Smith vs. Johnny Walker: Anthony Smith ML (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

UFC returns to ABC with a highly stacked fight card worthy of being a pay-per-view lineup, and it’s heavyweight sluggers Jailton Almeida and Jairzinho Rozenstruik who battle in the main event evening.

Former light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith meets heavy hitter Johnny Walker in the evening’s co-main event, each fighting for the right to be positioned in the title picture.

Let’s waste no more time, as we’ve selected the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC on ABC 4 main and co-main event.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida

UFC on ABC 4 Heavyweight Main Event Bout

Saturday, May 13, 2023 – 04:50 PM EDT at Spectrum Center

The hype surrounding Jailton Almeida (18-2-0 pro-MMA) upon his UFC debut in 2022 was supported by a 9-fight win streak – notably obtained via KO/TKO or submission.

While the regional scene tenure of most UFC competitors bares little weight, Almeida has undoubtedly lived up to the hype and has already stopped four UFC fighters inside the distance in just over a year.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (13-4-0) is a former kickboxing champion and entered the UFC with a similar hype; however, a lack of grappling experience and a chin that’s been tested on two occasions has seen the Suriname native lose 4 of his 11 UFC contests to date.

Rozenstruik vs. Almeida: Fight Tape Analysis

The simple path to victory for Almeida would be to exploit the almost non-existent Brazilian jiu-jitsu experience of Rozenstruik. During his UFC tenure thus far, Rozenstruik hasn’t faced the high level of BJJ that Almeida owns, but equally, he’s also presented questionable durability at times.

All of Almeida’s 18 professional MMA victories were obtained by KO/TKO or submission, and the former is just as possible as the latter. At the same time, Rozenstruik’s power shouldn’t be ignored, and he undoubtedly possesses the one-touch power to end anybody’s night early.

Pick and Prediction

The UFC odds believe Almeida will win this fight and fast, as the moneyline and under are both juiced.

Instead of backing the under 1 ½ rounds at -200, we can find great value in betting this fight to end in round one. Rozenstruik has seen 6 of his 11 UFC bouts end in round one, and Almeida has stopped 3 of his 4 UFC opponents within the first round.

UFC Pick: Fight to End in Round 1 (-150) [1.22u returns 1u profit] at BetMGM

Anthony Smith vs. Johnny Walker

UFC on ABC 4 Light Heavyweight Co-Main Event Bout

Saturday, May 13, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at Spectrum Center

Johnny Walker (20-7-0) seems to have turned a new leaf. Since breaking free from a 1-4 losing streak between 2019-2022, he’s back to winning ways and has stopped his previous two opponents inside the distance.

However, the glaringly obvious factor on Walker’s record is the level of competition, as he’s regularly faltered versus the elite – a category that Anthony Smith (36-17-0) falls into.

Smith, 34, has 18 UFC bouts on his record and has fought the division’s best. He’s 3-3 in his previous six, but unlike Walker, Smith has consistently fought top-15-ranked opponents for the last five years.

Smith vs. Walker: Fight Tape Analysis

When heavy leather is thrown around the octagon, the experience factor is crucial; one wrong decision and it can be lights out. But the octagon intelligence of Smith should triumph over Walker, especially when evaluating the decision-making of the Brazilian in the past.

Walker’s size has allowed him to handle grappling situations well, and his KO power is a significant threat, but his cardio has much to be desired. Outside of the first five minutes of his past fights, Walker has never won a UFC contest, whereas Smith has been a regular in four or five-round battles, including a decision loss to Jon Jones, where he held his own.

Pick and Prediction

The UFC prices have the odds split down the middle, but Walker’s recent wins against a lower level of competition shouldn’t be held with such high regard.

Smith is a veteran with plenty left in the tank. It will be a drop-down in competition level for him, and as a complete mixed martial artist, Walker isn’t even close.

It’s a no-brainer situation to back the experience level of Smith versus a fighter that’s continuously failed when matched with top-ranked opposition. The KO threat will only last for five minutes; should Smith survive this, it’s his fight to lose.

UFC Pick: Anthony Smith ML (-110) [1.10u returns 1u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook

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