UFC Betting Prediction: Fight Starts Round 4 (-118) [1.18u returns 1u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook
Last week’s co-main event was shifted to this week’s main event, and rightfully so. Top-ranked bantamweight competitors Song Yadong and Ricky Simon will deliver fireworks at the top of the UFC Vegas 72 card.
Brazil’s Caio Borralho and Brad Michal Oleksiejczuk will exchange leather in an equally entertaining co-main event. We’re delivering you with the most noteworthy betting value we’ve found for these showcase bouts for Saturday’s UFC Vegas 72 event.
Picks Summary
- UFC Best Bet 1: Yadong/Simon – Fight Starts Round 4 (-118)
- UFC Best Bet 2: Borralho/Oleksiejczuk – Fight Starts Round 3 (+112)
Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon
UFC Vegas 72 Bantamweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, April 29, 2023 – 09:15 PM EDT at UFC Apex
UFC fans are always in for a treat when Song Yadong (19-7-1) is scheduled to compete. The Chinese native entered the UFC fighter pool in 2017 – aged just 20 – and has continued to impress ever since. He’s obtained an 8-2 promotional record with 4 KO/TKO and one submission stoppage and is the youngest top-10 ranked competitor at 135 pounds.
Placed just one position behind his weekend foe in the bantamweight rankings (#9), Ricky Simon (20-3-0) has been equally impressive during his UFC tenure that began in 2018. The American Top Team product had a few rocky results against Urijah Faber and Rob Font in 2019 but has since stormed into the top 10 rankings behind a five-fight win streak.
Yadong vs. Simon: Fight Tape Analysis
With a background in the martial art Sanda that he started aged just 9 – a Chinese variation of kickboxing – it should come as no surprise that Yadong is proficient with his striking offense. He’s stopped 50% of his UFC bouts via KO/TKO and does an excellent job at working different areas of the body behind impressive footwork and movement.
Ricky Simon isn’t afraid to let his hands go, but there’s no denying his highlight skill set is wrestling. He’d be foolish to stand and bang with Yadong for five rounds, so we should anticipate a heavy grappling offense from the American.
This bout is a tale of two styles, and if you’re a diehard fan of MMA, backing the fighter with a strong wrestling base is nothing new. However, as Yadong hasn’t been easily manipulated in grounded positions before, I feel uneasy picking a side.
UFC Vegas 72 Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have Simon as a slight favorite, but there isn’t much separating the two in terms of pricing (-125 vs. +105). Bookmakers are just as split on the side, and for this reason, we’ll look towards round betting.
Some sportsbooks offer an excellent prop where we can wager on this fight starting round 4. Both fighters own great durability, with just five KO/TKO and submission losses from a combined record of 50 bouts.
UFC Betting Prediction: Fight Starts Round 4 (-118) [1.18u returns 1u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook
Caio Borralho vs. Michel Oleksiejczuk
UFC Vegas 72 Middleweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, April 29, 2023 – 08:50 PM EDT at UFC Apex
UFC middleweight newcomer Caio Borralho (13-1-0) wasted no time after earning a UFC contract from Dana White’s Contender Series. The Brazilian competed thrice in 2022 and has maintained his MMA win streak of 12 straight victories.
Michal Oleksiejczuk (18-5-0) will be a significant step up in competition for Borralho. The Polish power puncher has fought high competition during his UFC stint but has managed to impress with a 6-3 promotional record – five of which ended via KO/TKO.
Borralho vs. Oleksiejczuk: Fight Tape Analysis
Much like the evening main event, we will witness a grappler versus striker matchup. And again, it’s difficult to ignore the grappler in Borralho stealing the advantages by dragging this fight to the ground.
Oleksiejczuk is a one-round fighter but incredibly dangerous in those first five minutes. It’ll be a testament to Borrallo’s long-term chances in the UFC should he excel beyond the first round against the Pole, but with the relentless grappling style he’s displayed thus far, I believe he can do it.
UFC Vegas 72 Odds & Prediction
The UFC prices at OddsTrader aren’t showing value on the Borralho moneyline at -370. In fact, I’d be more tempted to make a play on the underdog if we’re talking sides.
We’re returning to the well with the “Fight Starts” props. Anyone backing the Brazilian should expect a three-round grapple fest or a late finish after Oleksiejczuk fades from the groundwork – Thus making the ‘fight starts round 3’ prop at plus-money a value play worth backing.
UFC Betting Prediction: Fight Starts Round 3 (+112) [1u returns 1.12u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook
UFC Vegas 72 Main Card & Odds
- Yadong Song vs. Ricky Simon [UFC bantamweight main event bout]
- Caio Borralho vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk [UFC middleweight co-main event]
- Cody Brundage vs. Rodolfo Vieira [UFC middleweight bout]
- Julian Erosa vs. Fernando Padilla [UFC featherweight bout]
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima [UFC heavyweight bout]
UFC Vegas 72 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Martin Buday vs. Jake Collier [UFC heavyweight bout]
- Cody Durden vs. Charles Johnson [UFC flyweight bout]
- Josh Quinlan vs. Trey Waters [UFC welterweight bout]
- Stephanie Egger vs. Irina Alekseeva [UFC women’s featherweight bout]
- Marcus Mcghee vs. Journey Newson [UFC bantamweight bout]
- Hailey Cowan vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth [UFC women’s bantamweight bout]
