The New York Giants and Houston Texans are must-bet moneyline NFL picks for Week 5. Should the Chicago Bears join the parade?
About Last Week…
Three out of six ain’t bad – at least when you’re putting moneyline underdogs in your NFL picks. In our Week 4 Upset Alert, we told you the New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks, and Baltimore Ravens were the top dogs on the board.
The Jets (+150) and Seahawks (+160) both won, but the Ravens (+150) gave us a bad beat when they blew a 17-point lead and fell 23-20 to the Buffalo Bills.
Because we already had all three of those teams in our Week 4 Best Bets, we gave you three more underdogs to consider for your football picks: the New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, and Washington Commanders. The Titans (+175) were the only winners from that bunch, but again, the Patriots (+400) had the Green Bay Packers in peril before losing 27-24 in overtime.
We hope you sized your bets smaller if you had any of those three dogs in your picks, but even if you didn’t, it was another highly profitable week for our chosen puppies. Let’s see if we can keep that momentum rolling into Week 5.
New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 09:30 AM EDT at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
The 3-1 Giants are also the featured team in our Week 5 Best Bets, but with fewer viable moneyline dogs on this week’s NFL odds board, we’re going to take a closer look at their trip to London to face the 2-2 Packers.
The profit margin in this case might be a bit better on the spread, where the G-Men have moved up a point to +9.5 since we last checked in. According to Wizard of Odds, a spread of +9.5 is the rough equivalent of a +380 moneyline. The Giants are still the best ML value on the board at +340, though.
We have an important update for this matchup: Giants QB Daniel Jones practiced Wednesday and is expected to play Sunday. It was feared Jones may have suffered a high-ankle sprain during last week’s 20-12 win over the Chicago Bears, but he seemed to be moving well during practice.
The thing is, Big Blue have succeeded despite their quarterback more than because of him. Jones is near the bottom of the passing DVOA charts at Football Outsiders, and he might sink even lower now that WR Sterling Shepard (knee) is out for the season, and WR Kenny Golladay (knee) is doubtful for Week 5.
Why The Giants?
It’s still worth betting the G-Men at this price. Their running game ranks seventh overall in DVOA with Saquon Barkley (5.5 yards per carry) as their bell cow, and the Packers are overvalued in general.
Having to fly across the pond also throws some extra chaos into this matchup – as should the somewhat windy conditions in High Road.
NFL Pick: Giants ML (+340) at SBK
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at TIAA Bank Field
Once again, we have the 0-3-1 Texans in our Best Bets, but they’re not available at +8 anymore, so they figure to be a better value at +290 on the moneyline. While that line is roughly the same value as +7.5, you’ll have to pay a premium in vigorish to get Houston at that price instead of +7.
The 2-2 Jaguars were looking like one of the best teams in the league through three weeks, but they got taken down a peg in their 29-21 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles (–265 at home).
Why The Texans?
Trevor Lawrence has slipped to No. 11 on the quarterback DVOA charts, which is well ahead of Houston QB Davis Mills at No. 28, but still not quite Pro-Bowl level. Time to pump the brakes on Jacksonville for now.
NFL Pick: Texans ML (+290) at SBK
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at U.S. Bank Stadium
The 2-2 Bears are the newcomers to our list, and while they don’t have the same potential profit margin as New York and Houston, they’re still worth a single-unit bet versus the 3-1 Vikings.
This is another case where the team is succeeding – if you can call it that – despite their quarterback. Justin Fields is last in the league in passing DVOA, doing even worse than he did last year, so you can’t pin this one entirely on former head coach Matt Nagy.
Why The Bears?
At the same time, Chicago’s No. 11-ranked run game is solid with Khalil Herbert (6.1 yards per carry) and David Montgomery (4.5 YPC) as their 1-2 punch, with some scrambling help from Fields (4.3 YPC).
And the Vikings are capped somewhat with QB Kirk Cousins, who sits at No. 18 in passing DVOA. Bet accordingly.
NFL Pick: Bears ML (+266) at SugarHouse