XFL Week 3 Picks and Analysis: Will the Vipers Finally Get a Win?

Luis Perez Vegas Vipers vs Arlington Renegades
Luis Perez #12 of the Vegas Vipers looks to pass during the first half against the Arlington Renegades. Sam Hodde/Getty Images/AFP

Week 3 should be a big one in the XFL as we will finally see one of the Vipers and Sea Dragons get their first win on Saturday as both are 0-2. Then the first game in Sunday’s triple-header is the battle of 2-0 teams between the BattleHawks and Defenders.

Finally, the should-be 2-0 Brahmas (1-1) can become the first team to knock off the Roughnecks (2-0) this season in the final game on Sunday night.

We have our top picks for each game, and you can find the best XFL odds at OddsTrader.

Pick Summary

  • Sea Dragons vs. Vipers: Under 38.5 (-110) at FanDuel
  • BattleHawks vs. Defenders: Defenders -2 (-110) at Bet365
  • Guardians vs. Renegades: Renegades -8.5 (-110) at Bet365
  • Brahmas vs. Roughnecks: Over 37 (-110) at FanDuel

Seattle Sea Dragons vs. Vegas Vipers

Saturday, March 04, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Cashman Field

In Saturday’s only matchup this week, the Seattle Sea Dragons are a 3-point road favorite over the Vegas Vipers with a total of 38.5 points.

For the last six quarters, the Vipers have been as terrible as any offense in the XFL. You may recall the turnovers, including two pick-sixes, they gave up to Arlington in Week 1 when they blew that game after halftime. Then last week, the 18-6 loss to DC was compromised by the weather and a bad field.

Conditions should be better at home this week, but we are still talking about a team with little offensive consistency in two weeks.

In fact, the Vipers have a league-low 115 rushing yards and 2 rushing first downs through Week 2. The Vipers have had a little more success through the air, but it has led to a total of 26 points in two games.

Meanwhile, the Sea Dragons are scoring 18 points a week and blowing a fourth-quarter lead in both games. This one feels like it will be a close game again, but we think taking the under is the best value in this matchup, with neither offense looking scary enough to get this into the 40s on the scoreboard.

XFL Pick: Under 38.5 (-110) at FanDuel

St. Louis BattleHawks vs. DC Defenders

Sunday, March 05, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at Audi Field

The Defenders are a 2-point home favorite with a total of 37 points.

Both teams are 2-0 thanks to a pair of fourth-quarter comeback wins, though St. Louis has definitely had the more difficult and more dramatic comebacks. That also means they have trailed by 12 points in back-to-back weeks before rallying behind AJ McCarron at quarterback.

But while the Defenders have had a limited passing game, the run game and defense are picking up the slack. The Defenders have 313 rushing yards in a league where the other seven teams have yet to hit 200 yards.

While the BattleHawks have McCarron, 27.4% of their passes have gone for first downs. The Defenders are right there at 27.3%, so there is a similar production on a per-play basis from passing. The BattleHawks are also last on defense with just 2.0 sacks so far while the Defenders have brought the quarterback down a handful of times already.

Call it a cliché, but we will take the better defense and running team at home in this matchup to put an end to St. Louis’ magical comeback start.

XFL Pick: Defenders -2 (-110) at Bet365

Orlando Guardians vs. Arlington Renegades

Sunday, March 05, 2023 – 04:00 PM EST at Choctaw Stadium

The Orlando Guardians are an 8.5-point road underdog against the Arlington Renegades in a game with a total of 37 points.

Most XFL games have generally been close in the end, but Orlando is showing some real difficulties after two weeks. Orlando has already been blown out 33-12 and 30-12 this season.

Paxton Lynch is cementing his NFL bust status after being benched in both games for the Guardians, who lead the XFL with four interceptions thrown. Simply put, this is the worst passing offense in the league as the Guardians have taken the most sacks (9) with the most picks (4) and the worst first-down rate (18.6%; only team under 25%).

Arlington’s defense has not been that bad through two weeks, and we think they have a good shot to continue the streak of double-digit losses for these Guardians by getting the cover here.

XFL Pick: Renegades -8.5 (-110) at Bet365

San Antonio Brahmas vs. Houston Roughnecks

Sunday, March 05, 2023 – 08:00 PM EST at TDECU Stadium

To finish off Week 3 this Sunday night, the Houston Roughnecks host the San Antonio Brahmas in a battle of teams who have yet to have a bad performance. The Roughnecks are a 4.5-point home favorite with a total of 37 points.

Houston head coach Wade Phillips has been fortunate to get a three-game home slate to start this season, but his defense has certainly taken advantage so far with this 2-0 start. The Roughnecks are living up to their name by making it rough on the necks of opposing quarterbacks.

The Roughnecks already have 12 sacks, which is 5 more than any other defense. They also have 4 interceptions to double up every defense.

But Hines Ward has had his Brahmas ready to go, and he too led his team to a blowout win over Orlando just like Houston did in Week 1. If not for that crazy comeback by St. Louis in Week 1, San Antonio would be 2-0 just like Houston.

A High Scoring Affair in Houston

The Brahmas have a formidable offensive challenge for Houston as no passing offense is better at moving the chains (36.7%). The running game is not quite there yet for either offense, though you could give the Brahmas the edge there too. The Brahmas are the best third-down offense, converting just a hair under 50% at 12-of-25.

Something we have not seen since the opening game of this XFL season between Vegas and Arlington is a game where both teams scored 20 points. That could happen in this one, but 21-17 would also work just fine for an over to hit here. That is our final pick for this Week 3 XFL slate.

XFL Pick: Over 36.5 (-105) at FanDuel

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