XFL Week 7 Picks, Odds and Analysis: The Brahmas Have a Fighting Chance

Fred Brown San Antonio Brahmas Celebrates XFL
Fred Brown #6 of the San Antonio Brahmas celebrates in front of the crowd after his touchdown reception against of the St. Louis Battlehawks. Ronald Cortes/Getty Images/AFP

Week 7 in the XFL begins with the first Friday game of the season as the Renegades host the Sea Dragons. There are two games Saturday, including a good chance for the Defenders to move to 7-0, and Sunday wraps things up with the best game between the BattleHawks and Roughnecks, who are both 4-2.

We included our top picks for each game, including the best XFL betting odds for these picks.

Picks Summary

  • Sea Dragons – Renegades First Half Under 18.5
  • Brahmas +3
  • Defenders -9.5
  • Roughnecks -3

Seattle Sea Dragons vs. Arlington Renegades

Friday, March 31, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Choctaw Stadium

In our first game this week, the Seattle Sea Dragons (4-2) are a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 37.5 points. Our focus is on the first half total.

Is Either Team Good Enough?

The Renegades continue to be a putrid offense after last week’s 15-9 loss to San Antonio. All 9 points Arlington scored came in the third quarter, and the touchdown drive was only 33 yards long. The Renegades were sloppy with two turnovers and 10 penalties for 106 yards.

Arlington has scored just 6 points in the first half of the last two games combined. The team traded for Vegas quarterback Luis Perez, but it is unclear if he will be ready to start this Friday after such a quick trade. He also was benched in last week’s game for throwing two picks.

Meanwhile, Seattle has been more of a second-half team this season too. The Sea Dragons scored 17 of their 26 points after halftime in last week’s 26-19 win over a bad Orlando team that remains winless.

Take The First Half Total

The early offensive success for Seattle has not quite been there in recent weeks despite the wins. Ben DiNucci only averaged 5.1 yards per pass and again was the team’s leading rusher with 43 yards.

This game has the lowest total of the week, and that is largely due to the involvement of Arlington. Betting on their games to go under has been paying off, but we think the first half under 18.5 is the right play in this matchup.

XFL Pick: First Half Total Under 18.5 (-110) at Bet365

San Antonio Brahmas vs. Vegas Vipers

Saturday, April 01, 2023 – 03:00 PM EDT at Cashman Field

The Vegas Vipers (1-5) are a 3-point home favorite over the San Antonio Brahmas (2-4) with a total of 39.5 points.

Perez’s Trade

The Vipers made headlines this week when they traded starting quarterback Luis Perez to the Arlington Renegades. Perez was No. 4 in the XFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns, but he was benched in last week’s loss after throwing two interceptions. The team will likely go forward with Brett Hundley, a former backup to Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay.

Hundley is 37-of-69 this season with 7.2 yards per attempt, the third-highest average for any quarterback with at least 60 passes. He has not thrown an interception yet, but the Vegas offense has struggled in recent weeks and only scored 6 points last week.

A Good Chance for the Brahmas

The Brahmas are also a struggling team and offense, but they did find a way to win as an underdog last week, 15-9 over the Renegades.

Out of eight teams, the Vipers are No. 7 in points allowed, while San Antonio has the No. 1 scoring defense. The Brahmas also have a positive scoring differential (plus-1) despite the 2-4 record. Vegas is next to last with a minus-52 point differential.

With the quarterback situation unclear in Vegas, we think the Brahmas can use their defense to keep this one close again and get the cover, if not the upset win.

XFL Pick: Brahmas +3 (-110) at BetMGM

DC Defenders vs. Orlando Guardians

Saturday, April 01, 2023 – 06:00 PM EDT at Camping World Stadium

We have the 6-0 Defenders taking on the 0-6 Guardians in a best-team vs. worst-team matchup. Fittingly, the Defenders are a 9.5-point road favorite with a total of 45.5 points.

Orlando has fought back better in recent weeks, but it still remains winless, falling 26-19 to Seattle last week. Meanwhile, the Defenders won their big showdown with Houston on Monday night in impressive fashion by a 37-26 final. Hanging 37 points on what was a scary defense earlier in the season is the highlight of the season for this 6-0 start.

DC On a Smooth Ride

The Defenders even did it without being dominant on the ground as the running game finished with 30 carries for 116 yards (3.9 yards per carry). It was quarterback Jordan Ta’amu who passed for 245 yards and two touchdowns to lead the way. Lucky Jackson had 136 receiving yards and a touchdown.

It would be a huge upset for the Defenders to lose this one, but we think the road cover is also a good bet. If this team can beat Houston by 11, it can surely beat Orlando by double digits too.

You can find FanDuel offering the 9.5-point spread instead of the more difficult 10-point mark at other sportsbooks.

XFL Pick: Defenders -9.5 (-120) at FanDuel

St. Louis Battlehawks vs. Houston Roughnecks

Sunday, April 02, 2023 – 02:00 PM EDT at TDECU Stadium

The final game this weekend is Sunday afternoon when the Houston Roughnecks return home to try to end a two-game losing streak as a 3-point favorite against the BattleHawks, who are also 4-2.

After taking an 8-0 lead in DC, the Roughnecks allowed the next 26 points and never recovered in the 37-26 loss, the team’s second defeat in a row. The vaunted defense coached by Wade Phillips looked bad as DC piled up 27 first downs and generally did what it wanted on offense.

The Battlehawks improved to 4-2 in their most complete performance of the season in a 29-6 win over the Vipers. AJ McCarron was sharp, completing 23-of-29 passes for 236 yards and 3 touchdown passes.

Can Houston Get Back on Track?

But Houston is still No. 2 in the XFL with 6.8 yards per pass and No. 2 in rushing first down rate (26.4%) on offense. On defense, the Roughnecks lead the XFL with 20 sacks while St. Louis is last with 9.0 sacks. Houston also has a league-high 8 interceptions.

Let’s trust Houston to regroup at home and take care of a St. Louis team that has needed some special comebacks to get the job done this year. We will take the Roughnecks to cover.

XFL Pick: Roughnecks -3 (-110) at Bet365

OddsTrader.com is your sports betting command center. Read featured betting strategy compiled from a panel of leading sports betting experts.

Site Footer