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2024 Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast: Rain, Rain, Go Away!

Kentucky Derby Preview Sierra Leone

The Kentucky Derby, heralded as America’s longest-running sporting event, is ready to take place this Saturday, May 4th, 2024, marking its 150th edition.

As anticipation builds among fans and bettors alike, one key factor looms large on the horizon: the weather on how it could impact your wagers at the top betting sites.

Before diving into horse racing betting, it’s crucial to consider your local regulations and available markets. For instance, in Colorado, Bet365 (see our Bet365 Review) offers fixed odds. This mean that the odds you bet on before the race will directly determine your payout.

It’s worth noting that Colorado is the only state in the US where fixed odds are available. In most places, the common option is the pari-mutuel model, where payouts are determined by closing numbers. Keep this distinction in mind as you navigate your options.

How to Watch the 2024 Kentucky Derby

  • When: Saturday, May 4, 2024
  • Broadcast Start: 02:30 PM ET
  • Post Time: 06:45 PM ET
  • Where: Churchill Downs
  • How to Watch: NBC/Peacock

Kentucky Derby odds oddstrader

2024 Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast

The burning question remains: Will rain play a role?

As of Thursday, May 2nd, 2024, the outlook for race day remains uncertain. AccuWeather projects a 40% chance of rain, mainly in the morning, with warming conditions expected later in the day, aligning with the 6:45 PM ET race start.

However, Friday’s forecast is more ominous, with the National Weather Service (NWS) predicting a 95% chance of thunderstorms and heavy downpours post-2:00 PM.

Could these conditions favor mudders like Mystik Dan, currently holding 25-1 odds?

If the track becomes sloppy on Saturday, Mystik Dan might emerge as a worthwhile longshot and those early odds might dilute. For those eyeing the Kentucky Oaks, tracking the official classification of track conditions is a must.

  • Dry: Normal conditions
  • Muddy: Wet track without standing water
  • Sloppy: Saturated with visible standing water

Notably, the last time Churchill Downs encountered a muddy or sloppy track during the Kentucky Derby was in 2019, when Country House seized victory following Maximum Security’s disqualification, as reported by USA Today.

2024 Kentucky Derby Info

  • Race: 12
  • Post Time: 6:45 PM ET
  • Race Status: Grade 1
  • Distance: 1 1/4 miles
  • Conditions: Dirt
  • Purse: $5,000,000
  • Track: Left-handed
Post Position Horse Trainer Jockey Morning-Line Odds
1 Dornoch Danny Gargan Luis Saez 20-1
2 Sierra Leone Chad Brown Tyler Gaffalione 3-1
3 Mystik Dan Kenny McPeek Brian Hernandez 20-1
4 Catching Freedom Brad Cox Flavien Prat 8-1
5 Catalyctic Saffie Joseph Jr. Jose Ortiz 30-1
6 Just Steel D. Wayne Lukas Keith Asmussen 20-1
7 Honor Marie Whit Beckman Ben Curtis 20-1
8 Just A Touch Brad Cox Florent Geroux 10-1
9 Encino (Scratched) Brad Cox Axel Concepcion 20-1
10 T O Password Daisuke Takayanagi Kazushi Kimura 30-1
11 Forever Young Yoshito Yahagi Ryusei Sakai 10-1
12 Track Phantom Steve Asmussen Joel Rosario 20-1
13 West Saratoga Larry Demeritte Jesus Castanon 50-1
14 Endlessly Michael McCarthy Umberto Rispoli 30-1
15 Domestic Product Chad Brown Irad Ortiz, Jr. 30-1
16 Grand Mo The First Victor Barboza, Jr. Emisael Jaramillo 50-1
17 Fierceness Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 5-2
18 Stronghold Phil D’Amato Antonio Fresu 20-1
19 Resilience Bill Mott Junior Alvarado 20-1
20 Society Man Danny Gargan Frankie Dettori 50-1
21 Epic Ride John Ennis Adam Beschizza 50-1
22* Mugatu* Jeff Engler Joe Talamo 50-1* Alternate
Note: #9 Encino was a scratch on Tuesday, April 30th. That added #21 Epic Ride who will draw into the field and start from the outside post (#20). All horses drawn outside of Encino will move inward.

Kentucky Derby Weather History

Curious about rain’s historical impact on past Derby editions? According to the NWS, of the 149 prior derbies, rain made its presence felt in 71 instances—that’s 48% of the time. The wettest Derby on record transpired in 2018 when Louisville endured 3.15 inches of precipitation.

Rain remains a familiar companion to this prestigious event, though its influence hinges on pre-race and race-time conditions. 

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