While there are 4 potential outcomes from the NFL’s Championship Sunday, the most compelling ones are both No. 1 seeds advancing and both underdogs advancing. That way we’d either get a rematch from Christmas night between the Ravens and 49ers, which is also a rematch of Super Bowl 47, or we’d get a rematch of opening night this season between the Chiefs and Lions.
There is something to root for, but what are we betting this weekend? We made our best bets for the NFL Conference Championships and you can find these bets at top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Ravens -3.5 1st Half (-110)
- Chiefs Over 20.5 Points (+105)
- 49ers to Score in Every Quarter (+140)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Ravens to Dominate Early?
If the 2023 Ravens are going to go down as a historic team, they will have to win the Super Bowl. Knocking off the defending champions from Kansas City would be a good way to go about that, but the Chiefs are a different challenge than anything the Ravens have faced this year.
Baltimore has not won a game by fewer than 14 points since Week 14’s 37-31 overtime win against the Rams, which also happens to be the only game this year where the Ravens scored the winning points in the final quarter.
Baltimore has been blowing out playoff competition frequently this year, but Chiefs +3.5 is a bet that would have hit in 14-of-16 playoff starts for Patrick Mahomes, who has lost 2 title games in overtime in his career and is 8-3 SU as an underdog with the Chiefs.
The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5 points. We have 2 picks for this game, and the first is looking at the 1st half spread.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, January 28, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore Is a Front-Running Team
It was a bit shocking that the Texans were a missed field goal away from likely taking a 13-10 lead into halftime against the Ravens in the divisional round. Despite a slew of false starts and other pre-snap penalties, the Texans rode a heavy blitz rate and a punt return touchdown to a 10-10 tie with the Ravens.
But Baltimore dominated in the 2nd half, winning 34-10, and in the process, the Ravens became the first team since at least 1940 to win a game by 24 points despite not registering a sack or takeaway, 2 stats this defense led the league in along with points allowed. The 2023 Ravens are the only defense since 1970 to lead the league in all 3 categories.
Another stat the Ravens led in was allowing the fewest points before halftime with 119. Not only was that the best number this year, but the next closest teams (Jaguars and Texans) allowed 152 points or 33 more points than Baltimore.
Throw in Baltimore scoring the 4th-most points in the 1st half this year (261), and you had a team that was often well on the way to victory at halftime. Baltimore’s plus-142 scoring margin at halftime is the highest since the 2015 Panthers (plus-142).
It is a margin that is almost double that of the Chiefs, who ranked No. 5 with a 1st-half scoring margin of plus-75 points.
Chiefs Known to Start Slow
The Chiefs are obviously a successful playoff team with a 13-3 record and 2 Super Bowl wins since 2018 under Patrick Mahomes. But they are no strangers to slow starts. The 2019 Chiefs began their Super Bowl run with a 24-0 deficit against the Texans in the divisional round. They ended up leading 28-24 at halftime and won 51-31, so they know how to come back too.
But this is rare territory with the Chiefs back on the road and facing another elite defense in the Ravens. Mahomes has only trailed at halftime just 4 times in 16 playoff starts, but they fit the mold of this week’s game with a tough opponent in a championship game setting:
- 2018 Chiefs trailed New England by 14 points at halftime (lost 37-31 in overtime)
- 2020 Chiefs trailed Tampa Bay by 15 points at halftime (lost 31-9)
- 2022 Chiefs trailed Philadelphia by 10 points at halftime (won 38-35)
- 2023 Chiefs trailed Buffalo by 4 points at halftime (won 27-24)
This season, the Chiefs have been much more of a 2nd half team. The Chiefs have trailed by at least 4 points at halftime in 5 of Mahomes’ last 7 starts. The good news is they have the ability to come back to win these games like they did last week in Buffalo. But the defense usually starts games a bit slow before adjusting.
The Pick
The Ravens have led by at least 4 points at halftime in 12-of-17 games with Lamar Jackson at quarterback this season. But just as the Ravens lead the league in fewest points allowed in the 1st half, the Chiefs lead the league in fewest points allowed in the 2nd half (126 points).
We’ll trust the Ravens to come out much stronger after shaking off last week’s rust, get up early on the Chiefs, lead by at least 3.5 at halftime, and then we’ll see if the Chiefs can work some more 2nd-half magic and come back to win this one.
NFL Pick: Ravens -3.5 1st Half Spread (-110) at Bet365
Is Mahomes Inevitable?
For our 2nd pick in this game, we are looking at the Chiefs’ team scoring total (over/under 20.5 points). Mahomes has led the Chiefs to at least 22 points in 15-of-16 playoff games. Is he just inevitable to get the job done on the scoreboard?
Mahomes Shreds Baltimore and Elite Defenses
It has been a while since these teams last met early in the 2021 season. Neither was playing very good defense back then, but the Ravens had stronger defensive units in 2018-20 and Mahomes always shredded them too, going 3-0 in those games and always scoring at least 27 points.
In fact, Mahomes has played Baltimore 4 times and has always thrown for at least 340 yards and 2 touchdowns. No other quarterback in NFL history has had more than 2 such games against the Ravens in their career, including Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Ben Roethlisberger, who all did it twice.
This is the 1st time Mahomes has faced Baltimore in the playoffs, and this is arguably the best defense the Ravens have had during his career. But Baltimore has not faced many quality passers this year, let alone someone with the best postseason statistics in history.
Mahomes also has shined in his career against top 5 defenses, measured by points per drive allowed. Mahomes is 12-2 against those top defenses, and he led the Chiefs to an average of 28.5 points in those games. He is also 7-0 in those games when the Chiefs are not in Arrowhead like they won’t be this week when the game is in Baltimore.
Should we also mention that Mahomes is 8-3 SU as an underdog, and he has led the Chiefs to at least 21 points in 10-of-11 games as an underdog? The only team to hold him down was the 2022 Bills in a 24-20 final.
Baltimore Is a Great Defense But…
The Ravens have had a very strong defensive season and have the best unit on that side of the ball this year. But we have to put things into proper context. This was not a great year at all for quarterback play, and the Ravens did not have to play most of the quarterbacks who had the best years, including Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson (impossible to play their own quarterback), and even someone who was injured early like Kirk Cousins.
Yes, the Ravens played Brock Purdy and Jared Goff, who are in the NFC Championship Game. But does anyone think of them as elite passers? People don’t feel the same way about Tua Tagovailoa, another quarterback who gets brushed off for the system argument. For as great as C.J. Stroud did as a rookie in Houston, he was still just a rookie, and he was missing 2 of his 3 best receivers a week ago when he lost 34-10 to Baltimore.
The Ravens have only allowed 5 teams to score over 20.5 points against them this year, but that includes the Cardinals with Joshua Dobbs in garbage time, and it also includes Gardner Minshew in an upset win for the Colts in overtime.
The Real Deal
But the game that actually can compare best to what the Chiefs bring is when Matthew Stafford threw for almost 300 yards and led the Rams to 31 points in Baltimore in Week 14. The Rams lost to a punt return touchdown, but they had a shot to win that game late, and Stafford had a very good game with his receivers and his ground game.
Mahomes’ receivers are not as good as Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, but he is not unarmed in this game as he still has Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. Isiah Pacheco can run the ball and give Mahomes some help in moving the chains that way. The Chiefs lead the league in dropped passes and have cost the team dearly in some losses this year, but they have looked better in the playoffs, and Mahomes has hit more deep passes since Week 17. The offense looked as good as it has all year in Buffalo last week with 8 gains of 20-plus yards.
Mahomes is a quarterback who can scramble and create offense off-script. He can make the side-arm throws and off-balance throws that Stafford can make. If that’s the closest example for what the Ravens have done against a talented quarterback who had a good year, then Mahomes should be in line for a good enough day to score at least 21 points again.
This is simply what he does.
The Pick
The only time Mahomes did not score over 20.5 points in a playoff game, he had multiple offensive linemen playing out of position, and the Buccaneers pressured him 29 times in that 31-9 Super Bowl loss. Even in that game, he threw a couple of passes that could have gone for touchdown catches with better efforts from the receivers.
The Chiefs have been mistake prone this year on offense, but a lot of it is self-inflicted wounds. If they catch the passes thrown to them that hit them in the hands, if they don’t fumble the ball in the red zone, and if they avoid giving the ball to Mecole Hardman, they have a great shot to score over 20.5 points this week for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Chiefs Over 20.5 Points (+105) at Bet365
Fading the Detroit Defense
The Detroit Lions are trying to do things the hard way this weekend as they are the only team playing that does not have an elite defense ranked in the top 3 in points allowed. In fact, Detroit is only 23rd in scoring defense, which is usually a no-go for a team trying to win a Super Bowl, but the Lions are a win away from making history with their 1st Super Bowl appearance.
However, they are running into a scoring juggernaut that maybe hasn’t finished the season on a hot streak, but the 49ers are still one of the best coached and arguably the most talented rosters in the league. They are going to give Detroit fits in the secondary in this matchup, so we wanted to take advantage of that with a game prop.
We are looking at the 49ers’ chances to score in every quarter this Sunday.
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, January 28, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
Trust the San Francisco Offense
The 49ers have scored in every quarter in 8-of-17 games started by Brock Purdy this year, so that is almost a coin flip for something with +140 betting odds at Bet365. Sounds good to begin with, but let’s tackle the elephant in the room.
Is Deebo Samuel going to play? It sounds like a game-time decision, a true 50/50 proposition. He did not practice Wednesday and is reportedly having a hard time getting full use of his shoulder back after injuring it on the opening drive against Green Bay on Saturday night.
But even if Samuel is out, the 49ers should be better prepared for it as they had all week to plan around that. It is harder when the injury happens early in a game. They learned that the hard way in last year’s NFC Championship Game when Purdy injured his elbow on the opening drive.
But without Samuel, the 49ers are still loaded with elite weapons such as Chrisitan McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk. Even Jauan Jennings got into the action last week with almost double the yardage of Aiyuk, who should feast on this Detroit defense this week. The 49ers only touched the ball once in the 1st quarter against Green Bay and didn’t score before scoring in every quarter to end the game, including a touchdown in each quarter.
Kicker Jake Moody is only a rookie, and he had that bad miss on a game-winning kick in Cleveland earlier this season. He had a big 52-yard field goal to start the 4th quarter last week and should be trusted to make one early or late in this game to possibly give the 49ers a hit on this prop by scoring in every quarter.
The Lions play strong run defense, but Chrisitan McCaffrey seems to always find the end zone regardless of matchup. But this is really an opportunity for Purdy to take advantage of a poor pass defense, and unlike last week, it shouldn’t be raining this time.
Detroit’s Historically Bad Defense
The Lions have allowed 5 straight quarterbacks to pass for at least 345 yards, a 1st in NFL history. Detroit is still 4-1 in those games, so it has not killed the team from winning games, but it is a lot to overcome in a matchup like this when the Lions are a 7-point road underdog and the 49ers have a better defense than the teams they have been playing indoors this postseason.
Despite the numbers on yards and points allowed this season, Detroit only allowed 4-of-17 opponents in the regular season to score in every quarter. But in the playoffs, the Rams and Buccaneers both scored in every quarter.
Throw in the Minnesota game in Week 18, and the Lions have allowed points in 11 consecutive quarters, and those were all home games. The Lions haven’t had to play on the road since Week 17 in Dallas.
Factor in the quality of the San Francisco offense, and this is going to be a very hard game for Detroit given its shortcomings on defense.
The Pick
Kyle Shanahan’s teams have a history of blowing leads and not finishing games. He blew 4th-quarter leads with the 49ers in Super Bowl 54 against the Chiefs and in the 2021 NFC Championship Game against the Rams.
Look for the 49ers to start strong and finish strong in this one, scoring in every quarter and likely punching their ticket to another Super Bowl where they will try to finish the job this time.
NFL Pick: 49ers to Score in Every Quarter (+140) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
